Editorial / October 12, 2023

Democrats Can Win Big in 2024. But They Have to Fight for It.

Republican chaos may help Democrats some in 2024. But if they want to win, they really need to help themselves.

John Nichols for The Nation
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) speaks to reporters at a press conference on government funding in the U.S. Capitol on September 29, 2023.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) speaks to reporters on September 29, 2023.(Anna Moneymaker / Getty Images)

On October 3, Democrats gleefully joined eight dissident Republicans to bounce Kevin McCarthy as speaker of the House. That made sense: McCarthy was an inept, untrustworthy leader who couldn’t be counted on to keep his word to his own caucus, let alone the opposition, and Democrats were under no obligation to save him. But McCarthy’s exit could also give Democrats an edge in their quest to retake the House in 2024. While he was an incompetent House speaker, McCarthy knew something about securing GOP control.

In 2022, when Republicans failed to take the Senate and suffered setbacks in statehouse races, McCarthy’s multiyear focus on candidate recruitment, fundraising, and targeted spending paid off in a narrow 222–213 GOP majority. And as a leader who was clearly more interested in elections than in governing, McCarthy was already organizing to retain the GOP majority in 2024.

With his ouster, however, the party’s strategies have been upended. Florida Representative Matt Gaetz’s headline-grabbing takedown of McCarthy has blown apart the House Republican Conference, exposing the bitter internal warfare that has shaken conservative donors and must have potential GOP candidates asking themselves whether they want to jump into a crashed clown car. (Donald Trump’s endorsement of Freedom Caucus cofounder Jim Jordan to replace McCarthy has only made things worse, though now Jordan’s intraparty rival, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, has been selected as the GOP’s candidate for speaker.) Nebraska Representative Don Bacon, who won his seat with just 51 percent of the vote in 2022, warned that the drama “hurts our own party” going into 2024.

Indeed it does. Even before McCarthy’s derailment, Democrats were in a hopeful mood. They need to gain only five seats to retake the House. Bacon is one of 18 GOP incumbents whose districts voted for Joe Biden in 2020. If just a third of those seats flip in 2024, Democrats could take charge. In addition, legal challenges to the GOP-friendly congressional maps in New York, Utah, Florida, and possibly Wisconsin—as well as a new, court-ordered Alabama district that leans Democratic—could open up a half-dozen or more seats. And increased turnout by young voters, angered and mobilized by threats to abortion rights, could continue to imperil anti-abortion Republicans.

The opportunities for Democrats are ripe, but so are the potential pitfalls. Chief among them will be the instinct to simply run against “those crazy Republicans.” Voters are generally disgusted with the Republican-controlled House—only 17 percent approve of how the chamber operates—but a RealClearPolitics analysis of recent polls still gives Republicans a one-point advantage over Democrats in generic election matchups.

Current Issue

Cover of April 2025 Issue

The current chaos may help Democrats some. But to win, they really need to help themselves. They should start by reclaiming the debate over the economy. An NBC poll from late September found that, by a 49 to 28 percent margin, voters saw Republicans as better prepared to manage the economy than Democrats. That’s a red flag—and a signal that running against Trump’s corruption and Gaetz’s nihilism won’t be enough. Democrats need a muscular economic agenda that makes it clear that if they win control of the White House and both houses of Congress, they will use it to deliver for the working class. That will give uncertain and infrequent voters a reason to turn out.

Democrats should be recruiting candidates nationwide—especially in the rural Midwestern districts that were woefully neglected by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in 2022. And those candidates should be ready to embrace economic populism as part of a nationalized campaign that offers tangible commitments to double the minimum wage, tear down barriers to union organizing, expand Social Security and Medicare, and tax the rich. Instead of avoiding controversy, Democrats should court it by adopting popular proposals to codify abortion rights, legalize marijuana, fight inequality, and end profiteering by Big Pharma, Big Oil, and Big Tech.

The smart alternative to conservative disarray is not centrist caution. It’s an inspired, unapologetically progressive vision that says government doesn’t need to be as dysfunctional as Republicans make it. Only if Democrats turn up the populist volume will voters give Biden and his party the majorities they need to show what Congress can do for America.

Support independent journalism that exposes oligarchs and profiteers


Donald Trump’s cruel and chaotic second term is just getting started. In his first month back in office, Trump and his lackey Elon Musk (or is it the other way around?) have proven that nothing is safe from sacrifice at the altar of unchecked power and riches.

Only robust independent journalism can cut through the noise and offer clear-eyed reporting and analysis based on principle and conscience. That’s what The Nation has done for 160 years and that’s what we’re doing now.

Our independent journalism doesn’t allow injustice to go unnoticed or unchallenged—nor will we abandon hope for a better world. Our writers, editors, and fact-checkers are working relentlessly to keep you informed and empowered when so much of the media fails to do so out of credulity, fear, or fealty.

The Nation has seen unprecedented times before. We draw strength and guidance from our history of principled progressive journalism in times of crisis, and we are committed to continuing this legacy today.

We’re aiming to raise $25,000 during our Spring Fundraising Campaign to ensure that we have the resources to expose the oligarchs and profiteers attempting to loot our republic. Stand for bold independent journalism and donate to support The Nation today.

Onward,

Katrina vanden Heuvel

Editorial Director and Publisher, The Nation

John Nichols

John Nichols is a national affairs correspondent for The Nation. He has written, cowritten, or edited over a dozen books on topics ranging from histories of American socialism and the Democratic Party to analyses of US and global media systems. His latest, cowritten with Senator Bernie Sanders, is the New York Times bestseller It's OK to Be Angry About Capitalism.

The Nation

Founded by abolitionists in 1865, The Nation has chronicled the breadth and depth of political and cultural life, from the debut of the telegraph to the rise of Twitter, serving as a critical, independent, and progressive voice in American journalism.

More from The Nation

Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on March 6, 2025.

Trump’s Order Dismantling the Education Department Continues His Attacks on the Agency Trump’s Order Dismantling the Education Department Continues His Attacks on the Agency

The president plans to sign an executive order directing officials to take all “necessary steps” to shut down the department, but a complete closure would require an act of Congre...

StudentNation / Owen Dahlkamp

Protesters gather against Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez’s decision to abide by President Donald Trump’s order to effectively abandon the county’s stance as a “sanctuary” for undocumented immigrants, as they make themselves heard outside the Stephen P. Clark Center Government Center on January 31, 2017 in Miami, Florida.

A Step-by-Step Guide to Trump’s Deportation Machine A Step-by-Step Guide to Trump’s Deportation Machine

The machinery of mass deportation is meant to be impossible to stop. But any machine can be brought to a halt, if only we understand how the apparatus actually works.

Michael Gould-Wartofsky

Donald Trump greets US Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts on his way to address a joint session of Congress on March 4, 2025.

How a Case From 1803 Explains John Roberts’s Approach to Donald Trump How a Case From 1803 Explains John Roberts’s Approach to Donald Trump

Roberts wasn’t “rebuking” Trump when he issued his statement against impeaching judges. He was bending the knee.

Elie Mystal

A screenshot of a Democratic Party of Wisconsin ad about the state Supreme Court race. The text reads

The Wisconsin Supreme Court Race Has Become All About Elon Musk The Wisconsin Supreme Court Race Has Become All About Elon Musk

The richest man in the world is the biggest spender on behalf of a right-wing effort to take control of a state Supreme Court.

John Nichols

President-elect Donald Trump with Elon Musk at a launch of a test flight of the SpaceX rocket in Brownsville, Texas.

Science Fiction Predicted the Rise of the Tech Bro Oligarchy Science Fiction Predicted the Rise of the Tech Bro Oligarchy

The racist tinge to Elon Musk’s hacking of the government eerily reflects cyberpunk's vision of the future—especially the science fiction coming out of South Africa.

Juan Cole

A segregation-era sign that hung over a water fountain in Montgomery, Alabama.

The Trump-Musk Regime Wants to Make Segregation Great Again The Trump-Musk Regime Wants to Make Segregation Great Again

In a boon for racist businesses, the administration has ended a ban on segregated facilities for federal contractors.

Elie Mystal