Activism / Covering Climate Now / November 24, 2025

Backsliding in Belém

Petrostates at COP30 quash fossil fuel and deforestation phaseouts.

Mark Hertsgaard

People participate in a demonstration in front of the main entrance of COP30 in Belém, Brazil on November 10, 2025.


(Ivan Pisarenko / AFP via Getty Images)

Belém, Brazil—The COP30 climate summit concluded on Saturday with a disappointing—even infuriating—agreement. In a diplomatic black eye for host country Brazil, what had been promoted as a summit of “truth” and “implementation” delivered little of either. When climate change is already imposing terrible suffering, when emissions are still increasing, and when 80 to 89 percent of the world’s people want governments to take stronger action, COP30 left the climate fight at a standstill, if not backsliding.

Money—who has it and who needs it—has been the sticking point at virtually every UN climate summit since such negotiations began here in Brazil with the 1992 Earth Summit, and it remained so at COP30. Divisions between haves and have-nots were as stark as ever, as was the power of fossil fuel interests. The result was an agreement that does not remotely align with science and leaves millions of people in frontline communities “exposed to the worst impacts and with few options for their survival,” said Oxfam Brasil executive director Viviana Santiago.

Two years ago in Dubai, the world’s governments endorsed “a transition away from fossil fuels”—the first time in 28 COP negotiations that fossil fuels, the primary driver of global warming, were explicitly named in the final text. But the words “fossil fuels” were missing from the agreement COP30 president Andre Correa do Lago gaveled through on November 22. Much less did the agreement endorse a “road map” for phasing out fossil fuels, as more than 80 countries, including Colombia, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, demanded. Saudi Arabia, perhaps emboldened by US President Donald Trump’s contempt for climate action (shown by his not sending a US delegation to this COP), led a group of petrostates that refused to sign any agreement that targeted fossil fuels. And since COP negotiations are governed by UN rules that require consensus, this petrostate resistance prevailed. Instead, countries can voluntarily join an effort outside the COP process to devise a road map, starting at a conference Colombia will host next April.

Also not in the final text was a road map for halting deforestation, the second most potent driver of global warming. Brazil held these talks in Belém, a gateway to the Amazon, precisely to underscore the urgency of protecting forests, which absorb some of the carbon dioxide that fuels global warming. Brazil also urged respecting the knowledge and rights of Indigenous peoples, which is the most effective means of preserving forests. But in what The Guardian called “either an awful diplomatic blunder or sabotage by the Brazilian foreign ministry, which has long had a focus on selling the country’s oil abroad,” the deforestation road map was placed in the same part of the text as the fossil fuel phaseout, and the petrostate opposition killed both provisions at once.

The COP30 agreement’s one partial bright spot is a call for tripling the amount of money rich countries provide to help poor countries adapt to increasingly frequent and deadly heat waves, storms, droughts, and other impacts of rising temperatures. Adaptation funding is set to increase to $120 billion a year, but there’s a catch—two, actually. First, the delivery of such funds was delayed to 2035, rather than 2030 as poor countries proposed. Second, given that rich countries have repeatedly failed to deliver the funds previous pledges stipulated, it’s questionable whether they will do better now.

Civil society representatives condemned the COP30 agreement as a failure on scientific, legal, and moral grounds.

“Rich countries cannot make a genuine call for a road map if they continue to drive in the opposite direction themselves,” said Mohamed Adow of Power Shift Africa, referencing how some countries that in Belém urged phasing out fossil fuels are nevertheless increasing production at home. “COP30 gave us some baby steps in the right direction, but considering the scale of the climate crisis, it has failed to rise to the occasion.”

The upbeat rhetoric voiced by some countries and businesses—their talk of boosting innovation, planting trees, finding win-win outcomes—can give the appearance that they’re genuinely changing course, said Santiago of Oxfam Brasil. But they aren’t willing to change the underlying structures and practices that keep emissions climbing, she added—the preference for industrial farming over regenerative agriculture, for example, or the $7 trillion in annual global subsidies to fossil fuels. “They want to change things, without changing things.”

An International Court of Justice ruling last July legally requires all countries to honor the Paris Agreement goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5C, said Erika Lennon at the Center for International Environmental Law. But the lack of “decisive action” at COP30 leaves the earth heading for at least 1.7C of temperature rise, said Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research. That will push structures like the polar ice caps toward catastrophic, irreversible tipping points that can unleash yet more warming. Humanity can avoid this nightmarish future only by “phasing out fossil fuels in an accelerated, orderly and just way,” said Rockstrom. After COP30, that task is more urgent than ever—but it still awaits the heroes who can make it happen.

Disobey authoritarians, support The Nation

Over the past year you’ve read Nation writers like Elie Mystal, Kaveh Akbar, John Nichols, Joan Walsh, Bryce Covert, Dave Zirin, Jeet Heer, Michael T. Klare, Katha Pollitt, Amy Littlefield, Gregg Gonsalves, and Sasha Abramsky take on the Trump family’s corruption, set the record straight about Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s catastrophic Make America Healthy Again movement, survey the fallout and human cost of the DOGE wrecking ball, anticipate the Supreme Court’s dangerous antidemocratic rulings, and amplify successful tactics of resistance on the streets and in Congress.

We publish these stories because when members of our communities are being abducted, household debt is climbing, and AI data centers are causing water and electricity shortages, we have a duty as journalists to do all we can to inform the public.

In 2026, our aim is to do more than ever before—but we need your support to make that happen. 

Through December 31, a generous donor will match all donations up to $75,000. That means that your contribution will be doubled, dollar for dollar. If we hit the full match, we’ll be starting 2026 with $150,000 to invest in the stories that impact real people’s lives—the kinds of stories that billionaire-owned, corporate-backed outlets aren’t covering. 

With your support, our team will publish major stories that the president and his allies won’t want you to read. We’ll cover the emerging military-tech industrial complex and matters of war, peace, and surveillance, as well as the affordability crisis, hunger, housing, healthcare, the environment, attacks on reproductive rights, and much more. At the same time, we’ll imagine alternatives to Trumpian rule and uplift efforts to create a better world, here and now. 

While your gift has twice the impact, I’m asking you to support The Nation with a donation today. You’ll empower the journalists, editors, and fact-checkers best equipped to hold this authoritarian administration to account. 

I hope you won’t miss this moment—donate to The Nation today.

Onward,

Katrina vanden Heuvel 

Editor and publisher, The Nation

Mark Hertsgaard

Mark Hertsgaard is the environment correspondent of The Nation and the executive director of the global media collaboration Covering Climate Now. His new book is Big Red’s Mercy:  The Shooting of Deborah Cotton and A Story of Race in America.

More from The Nation

Indigenous Activists to COP30: “We Will Fight to the Death”

Indigenous Activists to COP30: “We Will Fight to the Death” Indigenous Activists to COP30: “We Will Fight to the Death”

Indigenous people lead COP30 protests against agribusinesses that “want to take everything.”

Mark Hertsgaard

World leaders attend a session on the energy transition on the second day of COP30 on November 7, 2025, in Belém, Brazil.

Global Leaders Are Glad the US Isn’t Attending COP30 Global Leaders Are Glad the US Isn’t Attending COP30

Momentum behind decarbonizing the global economy has built to the point where it is inevitable—with or without the United States.

Mark Hertsgaard

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil's president, speaks during the COP30 Leaders Summit in Belem, Para state, Brazil, on November. 6, 2025.

At COP30, Will Lula Be a Rain Forest Champion? At COP30, Will Lula Be a Rain Forest Champion?

During this term, Brazil’s president has reduced deforestation but he is government is pushing projects that would open up the Amazon to extractivism.

Jonathan Watts

Bill Gates

How Much Suffering Can COP30 Prevent? How Much Suffering Can COP30 Prevent?

Bill Gates gets climate change wrong. It’s not a binary—humanity survives or goes extinct—it’s a questions of scale: How many people will die or be left destitute?

Andrew McCormick

A TV reporter braces against the wind as Hurricane Irma approaches in Miami, Florida, on September 10, 2017.

The Media Is Complicit in the Climate Confusion The Media Is Complicit in the Climate Confusion

The vast majority of people want their governments to take climate action—but most wrongly think they’re in the minority. The media is partly to blame.

Amy Westervelt

Climate Disasters Are Traumatizing Brazil’s Children

Climate Disasters Are Traumatizing Brazil’s Children Climate Disasters Are Traumatizing Brazil’s Children

The generation coming into the world now is expected will face unprecedented extreme weather events throughout their lives.

Giovana Girardi