The Occam’s Razor Explanation

The Occam’s Razor Explanation

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I’m working on a longer set of reflections on this remarkable electionand its remarkable outcome. Sometimes as writer you can feeloutclassed by the events you have to chronicle, and that’s how I’vebeen feeling the last two days. Such a moment calls for a Henry DavidThoreau, or an Ida B. Wells. We work-a-day political reporters don’tquite seem up to the task.

But two quick thoughts. One, the work of democracy never ends. I spentelection night with much of the Obama campaign field staff ofVirginia. When the networks called Virginia for Obama at 10:50pmeveryone erupted into joy, and then ten minutes later the place wentabsolutely nuts when Obama was elected president. By 11:30 the entirestaff was on an all-staff conference call getting their assignmentsfor the next day. With two very close congressional races yet to beresolved in the state, the organizers would have to be up early thenext day to start monitoring the count. The dedication exhibited bythe hundreds of Obama organizers who’ve worked for this campaign (mybrother among them) is just awe-inspiring.

Two, there’ll be lots of explanations of why Obama won, but for mymoney the best analysis so far comes from political scientist Andrew Gelman. He’srun lots of the data, and one of the most interesting results he’sfound is that there was a more-or-less uniform partisan swing towardsthe Democrats across the country of about 3 percent. While it might be the most unsatisfying explanation of a monumentally dramatic and riveting election, I think the single best explanation of what happened was this: the Republican party ran the economy into the ground, and independents trust the Democratic party to vouchsafe their economic interests more than they trust the Republicans.

If this is true, then the path to political success is actuallydelivering economic improvement and enhanced economic security for thebroad middle class of the country.

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Even before February 28, the reasons for Donald Trump’s imploding approval rating were abundantly clear: untrammeled corruption and personal enrichment to the tune of billions of dollars during an affordability crisis, a foreign policy guided only by his own derelict sense of morality, and the deployment of a murderous campaign of occupation, detention, and deportation on American streets. 

Now an undeclared, unauthorized, unpopular, and unconstitutional war of aggression against Iran has spread like wildfire through the region and into Europe. A new “forever war”—with an ever-increasing likelihood of American troops on the ground—may very well be upon us.  

As we’ve seen over and over, this administration uses lies, misdirection, and attempts to flood the zone to justify its abuses of power at home and abroad. Just as Trump, Marco Rubio, and Pete Hegseth offer erratic and contradictory rationales for the attacks on Iran, the administration is also spreading the lie that the upcoming midterm elections are under threat from noncitizens on voter rolls. When these lies go unchecked, they become the basis for further authoritarian encroachment and war. 

In these dark times, independent journalism is uniquely able to uncover the falsehoods that threaten our republic—and civilians around the world—and shine a bright light on the truth. 

The Nation’s experienced team of writers, editors, and fact-checkers understands the scale of what we’re up against and the urgency with which we have to act. That’s why we’re publishing critical reporting and analysis of the war on Iran, ICE violence at home, new forms of voter suppression emerging in the courts, and much more. 

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