The Breakdown: How Does Incumbency Affect Elections?

The Breakdown: How Does Incumbency Affect Elections?

The Breakdown: How Does Incumbency Affect Elections?

If incumbents are running scared, what does that mean for the phenomenon of the incumbency effect?

Copy Link
Facebook
X (Twitter)
Bluesky
Pocket
Email
The Breakdown

With mid-term elections fast approaching in November, the harsh political climate has left many incumbents vulnerable. This has caused a string of retirements in contentious states (Chris Dodd, Evan Bayh, Patrick Kennedy) and a number of hotly contested primary races for seats once considered safe (Harry Reid, John McCain). If incumbents are running scared, what does that mean for the phenomena the incumbency effect? How does holding office really affect reelection? Is incumbency the most important factor–or are other variables more determinative? To answer these questions, this week’s The Breakdown with Christopher Hayes invited Professor Walter Stone from the University of California-Davis to discuss the intricacies of the incumbency effect. This week’s question comes from ExplainThis.org.

Editor’s Note: The Breakdown is now being produced in partnership with ExplainThis.org, a new website devoted to explanatory journalism. Visitors to the site can post questions, which are sorted and ranked, and then answered by journalists. ExplainThis.org has set up a special page for The Breakdown, so you can now ask Christopher Hayes your questions via e-mail, twitter or online–at ExplainThis.org/thebreakdown.

Become a Sustaining Donor This September

Between the reemergence of right-wing red-baiting and Donald Trump’s use of the chilling National Security Presidential Memorandum–7 to criminalize left political organizing, we’re seeing McCarthyism reborn before our eyes.

This assault on democracy cannot be ignored or wished away. Resisting it requires bravery in the face of threats and repression, a steadfast commitment to the truth, and the unwavering belief that we can—and will—overcome this darkness.

We must have an independent media that sets the record straight, unearths corruption and abuses of power, and advances a politics of justice and dignity for all if we’re to win this fight.

That’s why I’m writing to you today. This September, The Nation needs to add 100 monthly donors to sustain our progressive journalism. Your contribution makes the next investigative report, the next truth-speaking column, and the next pathbreaking essay all possible. 

I hope you’ll support our work with a recurring donation today. If you donate $10 or more a month, we’ll send you a brand new “Hands Off the Free Press!” sticker to recognise your commitment to our cause. Please, donate today. 

Onward,

Katrina vanden Heuvel
Editor and Publisher, The Nation

Ad Policy
x