The Breakdown: How Does Incumbency Affect Elections?

The Breakdown: How Does Incumbency Affect Elections?

The Breakdown: How Does Incumbency Affect Elections?

If incumbents are running scared, what does that mean for the phenomenon of the incumbency effect?

Copy Link
Facebook
X (Twitter)
Bluesky
Pocket
Email
The Breakdown

With mid-term elections fast approaching in November, the harsh political climate has left many incumbents vulnerable. This has caused a string of retirements in contentious states (Chris Dodd, Evan Bayh, Patrick Kennedy) and a number of hotly contested primary races for seats once considered safe (Harry Reid, John McCain). If incumbents are running scared, what does that mean for the phenomena the incumbency effect? How does holding office really affect reelection? Is incumbency the most important factor–or are other variables more determinative? To answer these questions, this week’s The Breakdown with Christopher Hayes invited Professor Walter Stone from the University of California-Davis to discuss the intricacies of the incumbency effect. This week’s question comes from ExplainThis.org.

Editor’s Note: The Breakdown is now being produced in partnership with ExplainThis.org, a new website devoted to explanatory journalism. Visitors to the site can post questions, which are sorted and ranked, and then answered by journalists. ExplainThis.org has set up a special page for The Breakdown, so you can now ask Christopher Hayes your questions via e-mail, twitter or online–at ExplainThis.org/thebreakdown.

Support independent journalism that does not fall in line

Even before February 28, the reasons for Donald Trump’s imploding approval rating were abundantly clear: untrammeled corruption and personal enrichment to the tune of billions of dollars during an affordability crisis, a foreign policy guided only by his own derelict sense of morality, and the deployment of a murderous campaign of occupation, detention, and deportation on American streets. 

Now an undeclared, unauthorized, unpopular, and unconstitutional war of aggression against Iran has spread like wildfire through the region and into Europe. A new “forever war”—with an ever-increasing likelihood of American troops on the ground—may very well be upon us.  

As we’ve seen over and over, this administration uses lies, misdirection, and attempts to flood the zone to justify its abuses of power at home and abroad. Just as Trump, Marco Rubio, and Pete Hegseth offer erratic and contradictory rationales for the attacks on Iran, the administration is also spreading the lie that the upcoming midterm elections are under threat from noncitizens on voter rolls. When these lies go unchecked, they become the basis for further authoritarian encroachment and war. 

In these dark times, independent journalism is uniquely able to uncover the falsehoods that threaten our republic—and civilians around the world—and shine a bright light on the truth. 

The Nation’s experienced team of writers, editors, and fact-checkers understands the scale of what we’re up against and the urgency with which we have to act. That’s why we’re publishing critical reporting and analysis of the war on Iran, ICE violence at home, new forms of voter suppression emerging in the courts, and much more. 

But this journalism is possible only with your support.

This March, The Nation needs to raise $50,000 to ensure that we have the resources for reporting and analysis that sets the record straight and empowers people of conscience to organize. Will you donate today?

Ad Policy
x