Web Letters | The Nation

Web Letter

Allow me to inject a dose of reality. China's future is very clouded around 2021, due to several imbalances already in place and ripening.

The demographic imbalance caused by the "one child" policy looms over everything. During a similar period 1,250 years ago, major civil war raged for seventeen years, the Tai Ping Rebellion. There is no way to go back and re-balance the sex of births from the past decade.

This plays into gigantic regional economic disparities and the tensions they are producing.

The likelyhood of major internal conflict is extremely high, basded on the functioning of several political cycles, as shown in "Politicometrics."

John D. Froelich

Upper Darby, PA

Oct 7 2008 - 12:57am

Web Letter

A very admirable article, but anyone who believes that China has changed from its Tiananmen Square days is living in a purely fantasized world of romantic caricatures. One need only listen to the story of how China trained its athletes to realize that China has not changed, and one needs only to learn that China's managed economy is growing by 17 percent--thanks to Nixon, Reagan, Bush and Clinton. China has no incentive to change. Mr. Buffett has just completed a billion-dollar deal with China for cheap labor. Children are forcefully removed from parents to train as athletes. Check out Micrsoft's involvement.


Caribou, ME

Oct 4 2008 - 1:36pm

Web Letter

Certainly, the lack of harmony in any country will cause the government to lose their "mandate from heaven" and be replaced. While morals are not to be ignored, how to achieve harmony requires some practical steps. Economic stability requires an inclusive economy. Everyone must benefit from the economy. Communism in China was successful, in part, because of the lack of economic inclusion. There was and is too much poverty in China, and wages, along with the standard of living, must be raised. Ordinary people are the market, and if they do not have a disposable income, there is no market. The Chinese government thinks it must pay its people low wages in order to attract investment. The West has been salivating over the Chinese market for centuries, but most Chinese couldn't afford to buy Western products. China has the largest internal market in the world, but it can only be developed if ordinary Chinese can buy the "Chinese" products they produce. Foreign companies will become "Chinese' and produce in China for that market. China does not need foreign trade! It needs internal development first, and foreign trade is secondary. Tariffs are already in place, and its goal should be an independent economy. Chinese know their own market, and can take the lead in internal development.

Pervis James Casey

Riverside, CA

Oct 3 2008 - 3:56pm

Before commenting, please read our Community Guidelines.