The Occam’s Razor Explanation

The Occam’s Razor Explanation

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I’m working on a longer set of reflections on this remarkable electionand its remarkable outcome. Sometimes as writer you can feeloutclassed by the events you have to chronicle, and that’s how I’vebeen feeling the last two days. Such a moment calls for a Henry DavidThoreau, or an Ida B. Wells. We work-a-day political reporters don’tquite seem up to the task.

But two quick thoughts. One, the work of democracy never ends. I spentelection night with much of the Obama campaign field staff ofVirginia. When the networks called Virginia for Obama at 10:50pmeveryone erupted into joy, and then ten minutes later the place wentabsolutely nuts when Obama was elected president. By 11:30 the entirestaff was on an all-staff conference call getting their assignmentsfor the next day. With two very close congressional races yet to beresolved in the state, the organizers would have to be up early thenext day to start monitoring the count. The dedication exhibited bythe hundreds of Obama organizers who’ve worked for this campaign (mybrother among them) is just awe-inspiring.

Two, there’ll be lots of explanations of why Obama won, but for mymoney the best analysis so far comes from political scientist Andrew Gelman. He’srun lots of the data, and one of the most interesting results he’sfound is that there was a more-or-less uniform partisan swing towardsthe Democrats across the country of about 3 percent. While it might be the most unsatisfying explanation of a monumentally dramatic and riveting election, I think the single best explanation of what happened was this: the Republican party ran the economy into the ground, and independents trust the Democratic party to vouchsafe their economic interests more than they trust the Republicans.

If this is true, then the path to political success is actuallydelivering economic improvement and enhanced economic security for thebroad middle class of the country.

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Between the reemergence of right-wing red-baiting and Donald Trump’s use of the chilling National Security Presidential Memorandum–7 to criminalize left political organizing, we’re seeing McCarthyism reborn before our eyes.

This assault on democracy cannot be ignored or wished away. Resisting it requires bravery in the face of threats and repression, a steadfast commitment to the truth, and the unwavering belief that we can—and will—overcome this darkness.

We must have an independent media that sets the record straight, unearths corruption and abuses of power, and advances a politics of justice and dignity for all if we’re to win this fight.

That’s why I’m writing to you today. This September, The Nation needs to add 100 monthly donors to sustain our progressive journalism. Your contribution makes the next investigative report, the next truth-speaking column, and the next pathbreaking essay all possible. 

I hope you’ll support our work with a recurring donation today. If you donate $10 or more a month, we’ll send you a brand new “Hands Off the Free Press!” sticker to recognise your commitment to our cause. Please, donate today. 

Onward,

Katrina vanden Heuvel
Editor and Publisher, The Nation

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