It’s been a frigid winter for the abstinence-only crowd. Back in October the GAO slammed the Administration for Children and Families (ACF) for funding two abstinence-only programs without reviewing their “education materials for scientific accuracy” or even requiring grantees “to review their own materials for scientific accuracy.” Then last week the Institute of Medicine (IOM) attacked abstinence-until-marriage earmarks in the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) as ideologically driven barriers that jeopardize “the vitally important end of saving lives.” The nation’s editorial pages echoed IOM’s findings. And this Monday, Wade Horn, director of ACF and architect of Bush’s abstinence-only and marriage promotion policies, abruptly resigned — much to the dismay of the family-values crowd.

Add to this mix the introduction of Gardasil, the HPV vaccine endorsed by the CDC and Republican governors alike but opposed by abstinence-only fanatics, and it’s clear that support for abstinence-only education is more precarious now than at any other point in the Bush administration. With Democrats in control of Congress, there’s hope that funding for comprehensive sex education (such as the REAL Act and the PATHWAY Act, both sponsored by Barbara Lee (D) and Chris Shays (R)) might get a fair shake.

But don’t count your condoms just yet. As Scott Swenson reports over at RH Reality Check, federally-funded abstinence groups have pooled together their resources and created the National Abstinence Education Association (NAEA). And they’ve hired Creative Response Concepts (CRC), the pitbulls behind the “Swift Boat Veterans” ads, as their PR flacks. NAEA promises “proactive ‘rapid response'” to “negative attacks” on abstinence education, a campaign to “promote positive national media exposure” and the mobilization of “local abstinence organizations” in “key congressional districts.”

What does this all mean? Well, if CRC’s track record is any indication, expect vicious, targeted campaigns against vulnerable Democrats and moderate Republicans who vote to cap or eliminate funding for abstinence-only programs. Expect bogus op-eds questioning the integrity of groups like the Institute of Medicine and the American Medical Association, both of whom support comprehensive sex education. And expect media campaigns touting the values of abstinence-only education and offering up the abstinence lobby’s manipulated data.

And yes, as Swenson points out, all of this will be paid for, at least in part, by your tax-payer dollars.