Living in Maine, as I do, which is usually far off the beaten political track, I seldom have a front-row seat to the kerfuffle of the day or a chance to assess how accurately the mainstream media covers those kerfuffles. But now, suddenly, I do.

A lot of folks are understandably discombobulated by the departure of Graham Platner from the Senate race. Many are also anxious. The media is especially anxious—not so much about Democrats winning the seat—I doubt they care—but about how screwed up things allegedly are in Maine. Calling Democrats inept and predicting their failure is one of the legacy media’s favorite sports. As The Atlantic put it: “Platner just made things harder for Democrats.”

So the first thing I would say I have learned these last two days is that the so-called experts in the punditrocracy have no idea what they are talking about. They don’t know Maine, and they don’t know Maine politics. When they say that the selection process is a “mess,” that is just plain wrong. Given the exigencies of the need for a selection and the cramped time frame, the logistics are difficult, but I get no sense of chaos. The process, as it is being formulated and described, seems orderly to me, or as orderly as any can be under these circumstances. The process also sounds fair: A whole lot of Democrats (I sincerely hope to be among them) will gather at a “convention” to make a selection. This isn’t a bunch of pols in a smoke-filled room.

Second, the so-called experts tell us that there are deep divisions in the party here, that same old cleavage between progressives and moderates, and that schism will likely affect the selection and the prospects for a November victory. The problem with this assessment is that I sense almost no divisions here, especially now that Governor Janet Mills, who did rile her fellow Dems, is basically off the scene. Platner may complain, rightfully in some sense, that the establishment tried to sink his chances. But the establishment he should be accusing is not the state establishment, which is solidly, almost uniformly, progressive, but the national Democratic establishment, which did everything it could to defeat him (with Mills), and the legacy media, which hated (not too strong a word) Platner. They gave him the treatment they should be giving Trump. His beef is with them, Schumer, and The New York Times, not his fellow Mainers.

I was a delegate to the Maine Dem Convention, and Platner was greeted as a conquering hero. People lined up to have their picture taken with him. His speech received sustained applause. Every party official on the dais was a progressive, and so was nearly every candidate—for governor and for the Second Congressional District, even though that district is Trump territory. There is no Platner “wing” of the Maine party. There never was. There were enthusiastic supporters who appreciated his progressivism and didn’t just moon over Platner as a candidate. Those—I am one of them—will support any progressive candidate. Repeat: Our allegiance is to issues and to a program that will help Americans, not to a candidate.

The so-called experts also say that the putative candidates are unknowns. That is another New York/Washington error. The three top contenders—Troy Jackson, Shenna Bellows, and Nariv Shah—are hardly unknowns here. All three ran for governor in a widely advertised race. Jackson was a longtime Senate president. Bellows was the Democratic candidate challenging Collins 12 years ago and is now the secretary of state; she gets tons of coverage here, much of it for pushing back against Trump. Shah was Maine’s CDC director during the Covid pandemic. He was on television every single day for over a year. In short, Mainers know them. They are our neighbors.

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True, none of the three has Platner’s charisma. None could hold a candle to Platner on the stump. None will excite the electorate the way he did. But all three are progressives; Platner, in our ranked-choice system, endorsed Jackson and Bellows, as well as the eventual winner, Hannah Pingree. Jackson has already been endorsed by Bernie Sanders. They may not light voters on fire, but they are dependable. And let me repeat yet again: Maine voters don’t need to be set on fire. They are already on fire, partly thanks to Platner.

It is also worth mentioning that there is no rancor among those three either, at least any I can detect, or, really, among any of the Maine Democrats, though Shah is the most moderate, and there would likely be some grumbling, especially from labor, were he selected, which I doubt. I get the sense that Jackson right now is the leader. That may change. But there is really nothing but comity here in Maine. We want to beat Collins. Nothing will hinder that effort. The candidate deemed to have the best chance is almost certain to be selected, though a recent flash poll shows them all currently in a virtual tie with Collins, which isn’t a bad thing before we even have a candidate.

Finally, and most importantly, any of these three is likely to beat Collins when it matters. Maine is a Democratic state. It gave Kamala Harris a seven-point lead over Trump. New polling shows that Democrats here have a +11 lead on a generic ballot. Trump is deeply unpopular in Maine—38 percent approval unpopular. Sixty percent of independents here disapprove. Sixty-two percent overall disapprove of his stewardship of the economy, including 100 percent of Democrats. If this midterm is a referendum on Trump, it is a foregone conclusion that any competent Democrat would win.

But what if it is a referendum on Susan Collins? She has managed to escape more times than Houdini. Still, I suspect it will be harder this time. Collins is underwater in Maine. Despite her 30-year Senate tenure here, she has a 50 percent unfavorability rating in the recent NYT/Siena poll. Even as the world began to crash all around him, though before the rape allegation, Platner still led Collins by two points in the same poll. Moreover, as I stated in my earlier Substack, Platner was running further behind the Democratic tilt in Maine than any Democrat was running behind their state’s tilt in the battleground states this year. Oddly, he was running well behind Collins for the working-class vote. For all his talents and his magnetism, any of the contenders is actually more likely to beat Collins, not less, no matter what the pundits say.

The Republicans will pour millions into this small state. They already are. But it is very difficult, especially in this year when the tide has turned decisively against Trump, for an unpopular senator like Collins to free herself from the natural Democratic political gravity, which has only gotten stronger. Wait until the Dems begin broadcasting that Collins cast her vote with Trump 96 percent of the time! Wait until they begin pressing her on her decisive vote for Brett Kavanaugh, which she still defends—the vote that enabled Kavanaugh to overturn Roe. Wait until they ask why she voted for SNAP cuts, and Medicaid cuts, and to finance ICE, in a state where ICE invaded Portland’s streets. Wait until they broadcast that she supports Trump’s voter-suppression SAVE Act. Wait until they discuss how she has supported Trump’s war. Collins cosplays as a moderate, but she has a lot to answer for.

Platner hasn’t made it any harder to win this seat. He has probably made it easier. This is still a likely Democratic pickup, assuming that the convention chooses a competent candidate with a progressive message and no baggage. And I think it will.

Mainers know what they want, and I very much doubt that they want a Trump enabler.