It’s no surprise that Democrats are up against it this fall. The president’s party generally does worse in midterm elections. Inflation is at a 40-year high. Crime is up. And the centerpiece of President Biden’s domestic agenda has been torpedoed by united Republican obstruction—and a West Virginia Democrat, Senator Joe Manchin III.

But a critical factor was revealed in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll: Though they enjoy a huge 20-point advantage over Republicans among white college-educated voters, the Democrats have a working-class problem.

The Democratic Party is losing support not just among white but all non-college-educated voters, trailing the GOP by 12 points. It is becoming the party of upscale urban and suburban voters, while Republicans are beginning to consolidate a multiracial coalition of working-class voters.

Read the full text of Katrina’s column here.