Did Tom DeLay decide to step down abruptly because he thought he would lose a tough re-election fight? Or did he decide to jump ship before his party returned to minority status?

His money-laundering trial will soon begin in Texas. Former top aides recently pled guilty to "a far-reaching criminal enterprise operating out of DeLay’s office," as the Washington Post put it. The internal polling numbers in Sugar Land, Texas, were not good.

DeLay may have been able to stay afloat and squeak out a narrow election victory. He’d still have a plum seat on the Appropriations Committee, doling out federal dollars to his favorite pet projects and corporate benefactors. But as an architect of the Republican majority, toiling in the minority would be a hard pill to swallow.

His colleagues better prepare for the worst. Here’s what New York Times conservative columnist David Brooks forecasted over the weekend:

 

There’s the war. There’s really a torpor in the administration. They’re not doing anything right now. I think it’s now likely to move the House–that they will lose the House. And I think House Republicans, privately, most of them admit that. For like a year they were saying, `Well, we’ve got it so sewed up with redistricting. We’ll lose, but we won’t lose the whole House.’ I’d say about two weeks ago the conventional wisdom shifted and people said, `We’re in such trouble. We are going to lose the House.’

 

Henry Waxman with subpoena power. John Conyers with impeachment power. John Murtha with war spending power. The Democratic dream would become a Republican nightmare, paid for and sponsored in part by Tom DeLay.