A Must-Win State for Obama

A Must-Win State for Obama

Caucuses are indefensibly awful ways in which to select delegates to a political party’s national convention, and they are an even worse way in which to sort out the field of candidates for either party’s nomination.

Why?

Caucuses are time-consuming and complicated endeavors that are designed to repel rather than attract participation. Those who do so engage in a public setting that is ripe with opportunities for intimidation.

Copy Link
Facebook
X (Twitter)
Bluesky
Pocket
Email

Caucuses are indefensibly awful ways in which to select delegates to a political party’s national convention, and they are an even worse way in which to sort out the field of candidates for either party’s nomination.

Why?

Caucuses are time-consuming and complicated endeavors that are designed to repel rather than attract participation. Those who do so engage in a public setting that is ripe with opportunities for intimidation.

Perhaps worst of all, caucuses can be “gamed” by campaigns and powerful interest groups. For instance, the location of a caucus site can decide whether working people can participate — as the whole fight over whether Nevada caucuses will be held in Las Vegas casinos illustrates. And the gaming creates an inherently unequal process. Casino workers have the caucus brought to them, while cab drivers must take a busy Saturday off in able to play their part.

Going into Saturday’s Nevada caucuses, the balance is tipped in favor of Barack Obama. He has the backing of the biggest union in the state, the Culinary Workers, and that union has successfully defended a system that makes it easier for its members to participate in the caucuses than other Nevadans. (In fairness to the Culinary Workers, they have not done anything wrong — in fact, they have explored a smart new route for increasing political participation by allowing voting at the workplace. And they have did so with the enthusiastic support of all the major Democratic candidates — until the point at which they endorsed Obama and allies of Hillary Clinton began to object.)

Obama also has the endorsements of several of the state’s major daily newspapers, including the Las Vegas Review-Journal and the Reno Gazette-Journal (which bluntly declares that the Illinois senator “embodies the political and ideological perspectives that the party projects”) and of key political players such as state Senator Steven Horsford.

Obama’s spent an immense amount of time in Nevada, working the state as it has never been worked before. His campaign and its supporters have spent a fortune on television and radio advertising in the state, and the thrust has been far more aggressive than in previous contests. Ads attacking Clinton are all over the radio. A Spanish-language commercial, paid for by UNITE-HERE, the parent union of the Culinary Workers local in Las Vegas, translates as, “Hillary Clinton does not respect our people. Hillary Clinton supporters went to court to prevent working people from voting this Saturday — that is an embarrassment.”

Put the pieces together and this points to an Obama win. No one benefits so much as Obama from the structure of the caucuses in Nevada, and he and his supporters have worked that structure from all the angles. They have, at the same time, attracted the sort of mainstream support and favorable media coverage that is traditionally afforded a front-runner.

And what if Obama loses? It’ll be a serious setback after a week that, without a win, is likely to be remembered not as a time of triumph but as a moment in which he failed to capitalize on tremendous advantages — and in which the Democratic senator praised Republican-icon Ronald Reagan for addressing “the excesses of the 60s and 70s.” Of course, Obama will remain in the race, but his momentum will stall at precisely the time when he keep advancing against Clinton forcs that are ever on the watch for signs of vulnerability and weakness in their opponents.

Bottom line: While caucuses should not be definitional, this one could be. Nevada has become a must-win state for Barack Obama. He should get that win; but if he doesn’t it will be a stumble for the campaign that played Vegas with the best hand.

Take a stand against Trump and support The Nation!

In this moment of crisis, we need a unified, progressive opposition to Donald Trump. 

We’re starting to see one take shape in the streets and at ballot boxes across the country: from New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani’s campaign focused on affordability, to communities protecting their neighbors from ICE, to the senators opposing arms shipments to Israel. 

The Democratic Party has an urgent choice to make: Will it embrace a politics that is principled and popular, or will it continue to insist on losing elections with the out-of-touch elites and consultants that got us here? 

At The Nation, we know which side we’re on. Every day, we make the case for a more democratic and equal world by championing progressive leaders, lifting up movements fighting for justice, and exposing the oligarchs and corporations profiting at the expense of us all. Our independent journalism informs and empowers progressives across the country and helps bring this politics to new readers ready to join the fight.

We need your help to continue this work. Will you donate to support The Nation’s independent journalism? Every contribution goes to our award-winning reporting, analysis, and commentary. 

Thank you for helping us take on Trump and build the just society we know is possible. 

Sincerely, 

Bhaskar Sunkara 
President, The Nation

Ad Policy
x