In the more obscure race for Texas railroad commissioner, a Trump acolyte candidate so objectionable he was decried by the Texas lieutenant governor succeeded over the incumbent. Last June, Bo French posted a poll to X, asking, “Who is a bigger threat to America?” With two options: “Jews” or “Muslims.” In response, Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick called for French’s resignation as the Tarrant County GOP chair. Now French is the Republican commission chair nominee. The railroad commissioner seat is a quietly powerful sinecure that, confusingly, oversees the gas and oil industries; its primary relationship to traditional GOP interests has been in not actually overseeing those industries that much. But French has said he’ll use the power of the office to “defend Texas, stop the Islamic invasion, and defeat the left,” presumably using scraps of metal from the 10,000 abandoned oil wells in the state.

All of this is worth rehearsing because, obviously, the exact same record that helped Paxton grind Cornyn’s career to fine dust and propelled the most MAGA candidate onto November ballots will be a powerful weapon in the fall.

Before getting further into the good news, we might as well address two sunny assumptions that out-of-state Democrats seem to be making about why Paxton is such a delicious opponent: first, that his weak fundraising haul against Cornyn means he’ll have trouble putting up cash against Talarico, a darling who pulled in the biggest fundraising haul of the campaign off Paxton proclaiming victory. Second, that there will be some slice of Republican voters so disgusted with Paxton that they’ll sidle over to Talarico.

Both of these happy forecasts are untrue, but they are untrue in ways that offer their own kind of hope.

1. Paxton will raise money just fine—and it will come at the cost of every other seat the Republicans are trying to either flip or protect. According to Time, Republicans on the Hill are whispering about shelling out an estimated $250 million just to hold the seat. Figuring that Democrats are prepared to put up that kind of cash—and Talarico does seem set to draw in such sums—that sets the Senate race up to become the most expensive in American history. This draws out of the Democrats’ coffers as much as Republicans’, but, crucially, Republicans were not planning on having to defend the seat.

2. Republican voters gonna Republican. The thought of peeling off former Cornyn voters engages in the sort of wishcasting that put Kamala Harris on stage with Lynn Cheney. Polls prior to the election showed that 90 percent of Cornyn voters would vote for Paxton if he got the nomination. Two percent said they would vote for Talarico. (And the margin of error for the poll was almost 3 percent.) But what hopeful progressives need to remember is there just aren’t that many dedicated Republicans left.

Demographics are trending strongly in Democrats’ favor in this regard. A New York Times analysis has suggested that national-level gains among both Latino voters, a full 25 percent of the Texas voter cohort, and white voters have put Texas in play for similar reasons that (expensive, and ultimately purple) George now is.

The question isn’t whether Talarico wins but what it costs Republicans that he can credibly compete.

There are numbers and there are vibes, and the national repercussions of Paxton’s win might be felt along the taut strings of grievance more than the solid ground of polls and fundraising totals. Imagine with me a scenario in which Cornyn goes the route of other politicians recently toppled by a Trump-endorsed opponent: In the wake of his defeat, Thomas Massie promised to read the names of the Epstein victims into the Congressional Record and teased being able to prove that Melania knew. Following his, Cassidy poked at Trump in his concession speech, noting that he was in fact conceding rather than “claim[ing] the election was stolen.” Later, Cassidy laughed off a reporter’s question: “Do you think Trump has been honest with you?”

Cornyn embarrassed himself—such humiliations can be salved by either retreat or churlishness. The former party whip could still have enough hustle to bend a few equally disgruntled colleagues into something resembling at least soft resistance. That he was bumped off by a man with the morals of a ground snake might put the MAGA movement on Cornyn’s fighting side. He’s found some level of courage before. Yes, at a micro level, I believe it is more possible to peel off Cornyn than those who showed up to vote for him yesterday.

With all the reasons that Texas seems winnable, it’s tempting to forecast a Talarico victory, straight up. But that’s not the most certain success on the table.

A $500 million race that drains the RNC, forces it to defend Bo French to the world, and produces a free-agent Cornyn is a different kind of Republican victory than the party wanted. Trump won the runoff. Whether he can survive his own win is an open question.