The administration’s tariff policies have thrust soybean farmers into economic chaos as they navigate higher input costs and shifts in global trade.
Doug Rebout’s soybean farm in Janesville, Wisconsin.(Finnegan Ricco)
Farming today looks a lot different from the pitchforks and red barns that many Americans might imagine.
On Doug Rebout’s 4,000-acre farm of soybean and corn in Janesville, Wisconsin, a $650,000 tractor—guided by GPS—plants 3,500 acres in just over a week. “When it’s time, it’s go time,” Doug told The Nation. From 5 am to 10 pm, seven days a week, he and his family are ready to endure the uncertainty of farming whether it concerns time, weather, or tariffs.
Since 2018, Rebout, a second-generation family farmer and president of the Wisconsin Soybean Association, has dealt with declines in soybean prices due to President Donald Trump’s tariff policy. And he isn’t alone. Across the state in Barron County, Tanner Johnson, a first-generation grower of soybean and member of the American Soybean Association’s executive committee, has watched soybean prices drop 50 percent, forcing him to turn to smaller markets.
In April, US soybean exports to China were subject to a total tariff of 135 percent after Trump imposed a 10 percent tariff of certain agricultural products in March on top of a 125 percent levy. In May, both countries reached an agreement and Trump cut overall tariffs from 145 percent on Chinese imports to 30 percent. China brought down their 125 percent tariff to 10 percent, underscoring the market’s volatility and how farmers are uncertain of what policy could be imposed next.
In 2023, Johnson could sell a bushel of soybeans for around $13 to $15. Now he gets $9. Rebout said for his farm, which harvests 80,000 bushels a year, that small drop amounts to $400,000 in lost revenue. Meanwhile, maintaining a farm is costly, Rebout said, pointing out that one tractor costs over $600,000.
Dr. Thomas Kemp, chair and professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Wisconsin–Eau Claire, said Wisconsinites and Americans should care about artificially adjusting prices through tariffs because it disturbs supply chains, leading to overproduction of some goods and underproduction of others. “As our exports leave our country, and then they become tariffed abroad, it brings demand down, which brings prices down,” Kemp explained.
Wisconsin’s soybean farmers produce about $1.3 billion of revenue each year. Most of the state’s crop is sent to markets in China, Canada, and Mexico, according to the Wisconsin Soybean Association. Now, Kemp said, Wisconsin could see more than $100 million lost annually due to tariffs. During the previous Trump administration’s trade war in 2018 and ’19, US agriculture experienced more than $27 billion in losses, according to the WSA, with soybeans accounting for 71 percent of that.
As farmers lose this revenue, they spend less money, hurting other businesses that sell them seeds, fertilizers, tractors, and more. On the other hand, buyers of soybeans benefit from lower prices, saving money that they can spend elsewhere in the economy. But Johnson said tariffs have likewise affected the input costs, such as fertilizer, which have doubled in price; thus he is paying more to cultivate a farm and getting half the value of what he did two years ago. “In any business, apparently, other than farming, we would look at that and say, ‘We need to stop doing that.’ But obviously, we can’t stop farming and feeding the world, [we have] a responsibility to do so, and there’s only so few of us left,” he told The Nation.
These sudden changes in prices can lead to significant economic disruption. In the case of soybean farmers, many have invested millions in specialized equipment and infrastructure tailored to soybeans. When prices fall, Kemp explained, they may be forced to switch to other crops and their equipment becomes useless or even worthless.
Farmers don’t sell directly to other countries. They sell to local elevators, or a business that buys grain from farmers and stores it with the intention to sell it, who negotiate with foreign markets to import or export soybeans on their behalf. Johnson said Brazil is the United States’ number-one competitor; second is Argentina. “We used to have really, really good relationships with a lot of these foreign markets, and Brazil has since moved in and kind of took our spot on top of the hill,” he said. “It’s really impacting their relationships and soybean farmers [who] have worked for 50-plus years to develop.”
Recently, representatives from Chile, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Austria, Mexico, and the United Kingdom visited Rebout to discuss trade exchanges and build a relationship. Wisconsin recently built a port in Milwaukee, allowing direct exports to Europe and North Africa through the St. Lawrence Seaway, which will help diversify market access, he said. But they don’t fully make up for lost trade with China, Mexico, and Canada.
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“I doubt it’ll make up for all of it, but it’ll make up for some of it,” Kemp said. “The farmers probably would have been already trying to market there prior to these tariffs. In other words, what we’re seeing them do is, we’re seeing them look for second best alternatives.”
The US Soybean Export Council recently afforded Johnson the opportunity to visit Tunisia to interact with stakeholders across the soy supply chain in the Maghreb region. He explained firsthand what he does on his farm that sets him apart from global competitors through environmental care and superior quality of soy through storing the commodity in cold conditions.
“I held US soy in my right hand and Brazilian soy in my left hand. The quality was incomparable. US soy was clearly the superior product, and customers prefer it. Just now they’re able to buy Brazilian soy so much cheaper, that despite the higher quality of US soy, they’re economically being driven to buy more Brazilian soy,” Johnson said.
Both Johnson and Rebout advocate for their work through the WSA, which is made up of 14,000 farmers and is supported by the policy program manager in Washington, DC, who works with the American Soybean Association (ASA) as a national lobbying team. They have attended soy issue forums through the ASA, meeting industry speakers or leaders from other agencies such as the EPA. They also visit DC yearly on the behalf of the WSA to meet with legislators on both sides of the aisle to talk about key issues they face.
Johnson said Wisconsin is nearing a point where some family farms, which make up 94 percent of all farms in Wisconsin, could close down because of the lack of cash flow. He said it may not happen this year, but it could be only one year away.
“We’re definitely all feeling the pressure, and when you begin to lose family farms and local economies, you lose a lot of local participation in small economies, and that’s how you end up with downtowns that are empty.… A lot of the color and shine to these small towns goes away when you see the family farms close up,” Johnson said. “We are closer to big problems than we are to the blue sky if things don’t change soon.”
Ava MenkesAva Menkes is 2025 Puffin student writing fellow focusing on foreign policy and immigration for The Nation. She is from Asheville, North Carolina, and is studying political science and journalism at University of Wisconsin–Madison.