{"html":"\u003C!-- Advertisements --\u003E\n\u003Cscript type=\u0022text\/javascript\u0022\u003E\n\tkey = [];\n\tvalues = [];\n\u003C\/script\u003E\n\t\t\u003Cscript type=\u0022text\/javascript\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\tkey.push(\u0022tn_keyword\u0022);\n\t\t\tvalues.push(\u0022\u0027china\u0027, \u0027cold-war\u0027, \u0027donald-tru\u0027, \u0027internatio\u0027, \u0027us-militar\u0027\u0022);\n\t\t\u003C\/script\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\u003Cscript type=\u0022text\/javascript\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\tkey.push(\u0022tn_author\u0022);\n\t\t\tvalues.push(\u0022\u0027rajan-m\u0027\u0022);\n\t\t\u003C\/script\u003E\n\t\t\u003Cscript type=\u0022text\/javascript\u0022\u003E\n\tjQuery( document ).ready(function($) {\n\t\tcustom_targeting = false;\n\t\tif (key.length \u003E 0 && values.length \u003E 0) {\n\t\t\tcustom_targeting = true;\n\t\t}\n\t});\n\u003C\/script\u003E\n\t\u003Cdiv id=\u0022tn_pixel_239234_1\u0022 style=\u0027height:0px; width:0px;\u0027\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t\u003Cdiv id=\u0022tn_pixel_239234_2\u0022 style=\u0027height:0px; width:0px;\u0027\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t\t\u003Cdiv class=\u0022postid-239234 scrolltrace\u0022 articlelisttitle=\u0022Is Trump Headed for a War With China?\u0022 articlelistlinks=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/is-trump-headed-for-a-war-with-china\/\u0022 article-post-id=\u0022239234\u0022\u003E\n\t\n\t\u003Carticle id=\u0022url-title\u0022\u003E\n\t\u003C!-- Banner Image --\u003E \n\t\t\t\u003Cheader class=\u0022article-header\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\u003Cdiv class=\u0022article-header-content\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cul class=\u0022article-info\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\u003Cli class=\u0022category\u0022\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/subject\/armed-conflicts\/\u0022 class=\u0022anchor_subject\u0022\n subjectlink=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/subject\/armed-conflicts\/\u0022\u003EArmed Conflicts\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli class=\u0022subcategory\u0022\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/keyword\/china\/\u0022\u003EChina\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\u003Cli class=\u0022subcategory\u0022\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/keyword\/us-military\/\u0022\u003EUS Military\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\t\t\t\t\u003C\/ul\u003E\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\u003Ch1 class=\u0022article_title hide\u0022\u003EIs Trump Headed for a War With China?\u003C\/h1\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Ch1 class=\u0022title\u0022\u003EIs Trump Headed for a War With China?\u003C\/h1\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\u003Ch2 class=\u0027subtitle\u0027\u003E\u003Cspan\u003EThe brewing conflict in the South China Sea could become the next Cuban missile crisis.\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/h2\u003E \n\t\t\t\u003Cdiv class=\u0022byline\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Ch2 class=\u0022author_name\u0022\u003EBy \u003Ca class=\u0022author\u0022 href=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/authors\/rajan-menon\/\u0022\u003ERajan Menon\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/h2\u003E\t\t\t\t\t\u003C!--\u003Ch2\u003EBy\u003C\/h2\u003E--\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Ch4 class=\u0022time is-today article_pub_time\u0022\u003EToday 12:24 pm\u003C!--\u003Cspan\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022\u0022 class=\u0022click_comment\u0022\u003E\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan\u003E2 Comments\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E--\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\u003C\/h4\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t\t\t\u003Cul class=\u0022article-share\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca class=\u0022social-share fb\u0022 href=\u0022javascript:void(0)\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan\u003EFacebook\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca class=\u0022social-share tw\u0022 href=\u0022javascript:void(0)\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan\u003ETwitter\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca class=\u0022social-share email\u0022 href=\u0022javascript:void(0)\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan\u003EEmail\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca class=\u0022social-share tn_print\u0022 href=\u0022javascript:void(0)\u0022 onclick=\u0022tn_print_fn()\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan\u003EPrint\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\t\t\u003C\/ul\u003E\n\t\t\t\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t\t\u003C\/header\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\u003Csection class=\u0022article-body abody-239234\u0022 \u003E\n\t\t\u003Caside class=\u0022left full-width-mobile image wide indent\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Ca class=\u0022gallery imgHover\u0022 href=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/tillerson_trump_rtr_img.jpg\u0022 title=\u0022Secretary of State Rex Tillerson speaks after his swearing-in ceremony, accompanied by Donald Trump in the Oval Office, February 1, 2017. (Reuters \/ Carlos Barria)\u0022\u003E\u003Cimg src=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/tillerson_trump_rtr_img.jpg?scale=896&compress=80\u0022 alt=\u0022trump tillerson\u0022\u003E\u003C\/a\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cp class=\u0022caption\u0022\u003ESecretary of State Rex Tillerson speaks after his swearing-in ceremony, accompanied by Donald Trump in the Oval Office, February 1, 2017. \u003Cspan class=\u0022credits\u0022\u003E(Reuters \/ Carlos Barria)\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/aside\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cdiv style=\u0022clear:both\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cp\u003EForget those \u201c\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2017\/feb\/02\/bad-hombres-reports-claim-trump-threatened-to-send-troops-to-mexico\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Ebad hombres\u003C\/a\u003E down there\u201d in Mexico that US troops might take out. Ignore the way National Security Adviser Michael Flynn put Iran \u201c\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2017\/02\/02\/iran-is-on-notice-what-flynn-meant-and-how-trump-may-miscalculate.html\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Eon notice\u003C\/a\u003E\u201d and the new president \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.dailymail.co.uk\/news\/article-4184166\/Trump-warns-Iran-NOTICE-thankful.html\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Einsisted\u003C\/a\u003E, that, when it comes to that country, \u201cnothing is off the table.\u201d Instead, focus for a moment on something truly scary: the possibility that Donald Trump\u2019s Washington might slide into an actual war with the planet\u2019s rising superpower, China. No kidding. It could really happen.\u003Caside class=\u0022ad right most-popular-plus-ad grey_back\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\u003Cdiv id=\u0022ad-halfpage-239234-0\u0022 class=\u0022sailthru_class_form\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.thenation.com\/advertising-policy\u0022 class=\u0022ad-policy\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003EAd Policy\u003C\/a\u003E\n\t\t\t\u003C\/aside\u003E\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Caside class=\u0022left textaside\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cdiv class=\u0022message\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003EThis article originally appeared at \u003Ca target=\u0022_blank\u0022 href=\u0022http:\/\/www.tomdispatch.com\/\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003ETomDispatch.com\u003C\/a\u003E. To stay on top of important articles like these, \u003Ca target=\u0022_blank\u0022 href=\u0022http:\/\/eepurl.com\/lsFRj\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Esign up\u003C\/a\u003E to receive the latest updates from TomDispatch.com.\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/aside\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003ELet\u2019s start with silver-maned, stately Rex Tillerson, Donald Trump\u2019s pick for secretary of state. Who could deny that the former ExxonMobil CEO has a foreign minister\u2019s bearing? Trump \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/donald-trump-is-holding-a-government-casting-call-hes-seeking-the-look\/2016\/12\/21\/703ae8a4-c795-11e6-bf4b-2c064d32a4bf_story.html?utm_term=.977f731007f5\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Ereportedly\u003C\/a\u003E chose him over neocon firebrand John Bolton partly for that reason. (Among other things, Bolton was mustachioed, something the new president apparently \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/news\/2016\/12\/22\/john-boltons-moustache-has-fallen-foul-trumps-fashion-police\/\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Edoesn\u2019t\u003C\/a\u003E care for.) But an august persona can only do so much; it can\u2019t offset a lack of professional diplomatic experience.\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EThat became all-too-apparent during Tillerson\u2019s January 11 confirmation hearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He was asked for his view on the military infrastructure China has been creating on various islands in the South China Sea, the ownership of which other Asian countries, including Taiwan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei claim as well\u003Cstrong\u003E.\u003C\/strong\u003E China\u2019s actions, he \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2017\/01\/12\/politics\/china-tillerson\/\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Ereplied\u003C\/a\u003E, were \u201cextremely worrisome,\u201d likening them to Russia\u2019s annexation of Ukraine\u2019s Crimean peninsula, an infraction for which Russia was slapped with economic sanctions.\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EThe then-nominee for secretary of state\u2014he\u2019s since been confirmed, despite many negative votes\u2014didn\u2019t, however, stop there. Evidently, he wanted to communicate to the Chinese leadership in Beijing that the new administration was already irked beyond measure with them. So he added, \u201cWe\u2019re going to have to send China\u2019s leaders a clear signal: that, first, the island building stops and, second, your access to those islands is not going to be allowed.\u201d Functionally, that fell little short of being an announcement of a future act of war, since not allowing \u201caccess\u201d to those islands would clearly involve military moves. In what amounted to a there\u2019s-a-new-sheriff-in-town warning, he then doubled down yet again, insisting, slightly incoherently (in the tradition of his new boss), that \u201cthe failure of a response has allowed them to just keep pushing the envelope on this.\u201d\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EAll right, so maybe a novice had a bad day. Maybe the secretary-of-state-to-be simply ad-libbed and misspoke\u2026 whatever. If so, you might have expected a later clarification from him or from someone on the Trump national-security team anyway.\u003Caside class=\u0022right hidden-on-mobile most-popular-plus-ad\u0022\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022most-popular hover_b_remove\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Ch3\u003EMost Popular\u003C\/h3\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022popular-article\u0022\u003E\u003Ch4\u003E1\u003C\/h4\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/steve-bannon-wants-to-start-world-war-iii\/\u0022 onclick=\u0022ga(\u0027send\u0027, \u0027event\u0027, \u0027Most Popular\u0027, \u0027Click Most Popular\u0027, \u0027Steve Bannon Wants To Start World War III\u0027,\u00270\u0027)\u0022\u003ESteve Bannon Wants To Start World War III\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022popular-article\u0022\u003E\u003Ch4\u003E2\u003C\/h4\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/donald-trump-is-selling-access-to-the-winter-white-house-for-200000\/\u0022 onclick=\u0022ga(\u0027send\u0027, \u0027event\u0027, \u0027Most Popular\u0027, \u0027Click Most Popular\u0027, \u0027Donald Trump Is Selling Access to the \u2018Winter White House\u2019 for $200,000\u0027,\u00270\u0027)\u0022\u003EDonald Trump Is Selling Access to the \u2018Winter White House\u2019 for $200,000\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022popular-article\u0022\u003E\u003Ch4\u003E3\u003C\/h4\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/this-is-how-the-republican-party-plans-to-destroy-the-federal-government\/\u0022 onclick=\u0022ga(\u0027send\u0027, \u0027event\u0027, \u0027Most Popular\u0027, \u0027Click Most Popular\u0027, \u0027This Is How the Republican Party Plans to Destroy the Federal Government\u0027,\u00270\u0027)\u0022\u003EThis Is How the Republican Party Plans to Destroy the Federal Government\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022popular-article\u0022\u003E\u003Ch4\u003E4\u003C\/h4\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/leaked-draft-of-trumps-religious-freedom-order-reveals-sweeping-plans-to-legalize-discrimination\/\u0022 onclick=\u0022ga(\u0027send\u0027, \u0027event\u0027, \u0027Most Popular\u0027, \u0027Click Most Popular\u0027, \u0027Leaked Draft of Trump\u2019s Religious Freedom Order Reveals Sweeping Plans to Legalize Discrimination\u0027,\u00270\u0027)\u0022\u003ELeaked Draft of Trump\u2019s Religious Freedom Order Reveals Sweeping Plans to Legalize Discrimination\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022popular-article\u0022\u003E\u003Ch4\u003E5\u003C\/h4\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/your-guide-to-the-sprawling-new-anti-trump-resistance-movement\/\u0022 onclick=\u0022ga(\u0027send\u0027, \u0027event\u0027, \u0027Most Popular\u0027, \u0027Click Most Popular\u0027, \u0027Your Guide to the Sprawling New Anti-Trump Resistance Movement\u0027,\u00270\u0027)\u0022\u003EYour Guide to the Sprawling New Anti-Trump Resistance Movement\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C\/aside\u003E\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EThat didn\u2019t happen; instead, that team stuck to its guns. White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer made no effort to add nuance to, let alone walk back, Tillerson\u2019s remarks. During his first official press briefing on January 23, Spicer \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/dailycaller.com\/2017\/01\/23\/spicer-trump-will-challenge-china-in-the-south-china-sea-to-defend-us-interests\/\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Edeclared\u003C\/a\u003E that the United States \u201cis going to make sure we defend our interests there\u201d\u2014in the South China Sea, that is\u2014and that \u201cif those islands are in fact in international waters and not part of China proper, then yes, we are going to make sure that we defend international territories from being taken over by one country.\u201d\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EAnd what of Trump\u2019s own views on the island controversy? Never one to pass up an opportunity for hyperbole, during the presidential campaign he \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.politifact.com\/truth-o-meter\/statements\/2016\/apr\/04\/donald-trump\/donald-trump-weighs-chinas-island-building-south-c\/\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Eswore\u003C\/a\u003E that, on those tiny islands, China was building \u201ca military fortress the likes of which the world has not seen.\u201d As it happened, he wasn\u2019t speaking about, say, the forces that Hitler massed for the ill-fated Operation Barbarossa, launched in June 1941 with the aim of crushing the Red Army and the Soviet Union, or those deployed for the June 1944 Normandy landing, which sealed Nazi Germany\u2019s fate. When applied to what China has been up to in the South China Sea, his statement fell instantly into the not-yet-named category of \u201calternative facts.\u201d\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003ECandidate Trump also let it be known that he wouldn\u2019t allow Beijing to get away with such cheekiness on his watch. Why had the Chinese engaged in military construction on the islands? Trump had a simple answer (as he invariably does): China \u201chas no respect for our president and no respect for our country.\u201d The implication was evident. Things would be different once he settled into the White House and made America great again. Then\u2014it was easy enough to conclude\u2014China had better watch out.\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EStandard campaign bombast? Well, Trump hasn\u2019t changed his tune a bit since being elected. On December 4, using (of course!) his \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/twitter.com\/realdonaldtrump\/status\/805539770864693253?lang=en\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003ETwitter\u003C\/a\u003E account, he blasted Beijing for having built \u201ca massive military complex in the middle of the South China Sea.\u201d And it\u2019s safe to assume that he signed off on Spicer\u2019s combative comments as well. \u003Cstyle\u003E\n .cta.primary.lobiNouWGb{\n background: #cc0e0e !important;\n color: #ffffff !important;\n }\n .cta.primary.lobiNouWGb a:hover\n {\n color: #cc0e0e !important;\n background: #ffffff !important;\n }\n \u003C\/style\u003E\n \u003Caside class=\u0022siderail__item full cta primary right article_action_right lobiNouWGb\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022item__content\u0022\u003E\n \u003Ch3\u003EGET A DIGITAL SUBSCRIPTION \r\nFOR JUST $9.50!\r\n\u003C\/h3\u003E\n \u003Ca href=\u0022 https:\/\/ssl.palmcoastd.com\/06601\/apps\/ORDOPTION1LANDING?ikey=I**ALL \u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022 class=\u0022btn\u0022\u003ESubscribe\u003C\/a\u003E \n \u003C\/div\u003E \n\u003C\/aside\u003E\n\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EIn short, his administration has already drawn a red line\u2014but in the way a petulant child might with a crayon. During and after the campaign he made much of his determination to regain the respect he claims the United States has lost in the world, notably from adversaries like China. The danger here is that, in dealing with that country, Trump could, as is typical, make it all about himself, all about \u201cwinning,\u201d one of his most beloved words, and disaster might follow.\t\t\n\u003Ch6\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EWhose Islands?\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/h6\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003EA military clash between Trump-led America and a China led by President Xi Jinping? Understanding how it might happen requires a brief detour to the place where it\u2019s most likely to occur: the South China Sea. Our first task: to understand China\u2019s position on that body of water and the islands it contains, as well as the nature of Beijing\u2019s military projects there. So brace yourself for some necessary detail.\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EAs Marina Tsirbas, a former diplomat now at the Australian National University\u2019s National Security College, \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/thediplomat.com\/2016\/06\/what-does-the-nine-dash-line-actually-mean\/\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Eexplains\u003C\/a\u003E, Beijing\u2019s written and verbal statements on the South China Sea lend themselves to two different interpretations. The Chinese government\u2019s position boils down to something like this: \u201cWe own everything\u2014the waters, islands and reefs, marine resources, and energy and mineral deposits\u2014within the Nine-Dash Line.\u201d That \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/time.com\/4412191\/nine-dash-line-9-south-china-sea\/\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Edemarcation line\u003C\/a\u003E, which incidentally has had \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/feature\/its-time-ignore-chinas-nine-dash-line-17071\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003E10\u003C\/a\u003E dashes, and sometimes 11, originally appeared in 1947 maps of the Republic of China, the Nationalist government that would soon flee to the island of Taiwan leaving the Chinese Communists in charge of the mainland. When Mao Ze Dong and his associates established the People\u2019s Republic, they retained that Nationalist map and the demarcation line that went with it, which just happened to \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.economist.com\/news\/china\/21702527-xi-jinping-tries-contain-public-fury-over-south-china-sea-my-nationalism-and-dont-you?zid=306&ah=1b164dbd43b0cb27ba0d4c3b12a5e227\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Eenclose virtually all\u003C\/a\u003E of the South China Sea, claiming sovereign rights.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cstyle\u003E\n\t\t\t\t.article-wrap .article-body aside.left.custom_background_239234\t\t\t\t {\n\t\t\t\t background:none !important;\n\t\t\t\t }\n\t\t\t\t \u003C\/style\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cstyle\u003E\n\t\t\t\t.article-wrap .article-body aside.left.custom_background_239234\t\t\t\t {\n\t\t\t\t background:#5000b2 !important;\n\t\t\t\t }\n\t\t\t\t \u003C\/style\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\u003Caside class=\u0022left takeaction indent custom_background_239234\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cdiv class=\u0022action_tout_heading\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\u003Cspan\u003EThe stakes are higher now than ever. Get The Nation in your inbox. \u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cform action=\u0022\u0022 name=\u0022sailthru_action_tout_form\u0022 method=\u0022post\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cinput type=\u0022email\u0022 name=\u0022email\u0022 id=\u0022take_action_sailthru_email_239234\u0022 class=\u0022take_action_sailthru_email\u0022 Placeholder=\u0022Enter Email\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cinput type=\u0022hidden\u0022 name=\u0022take_action_sailthru_list_final\u0022 id=\u0022take_action_sailthru_list_final_239234\u0022 value=\u0022daily_tout,master,daily\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cdiv class=\u0022cta\u0022\u003E\u003Cp\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cinput type=\u0022button\u0022 class=\u0022take_action_sailthru_submit\u0022 name=\u0022submit_sailthru\u0022 value=\u0022SIGN UP!\u0022 onclick=\u0022add_action_tout_sailthru(239234)\u0022\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/form\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\u003Cp id=\u0022action_tout_response_239234\u0022\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\u003C\/aside\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EThis stance\u2014think of it as Beijing\u2019s hard line on the subject\u2014raises instant questions about other countries\u2019 navigation and overflight rights through that much-used region. In essence, do they have any and, if so, will Beijing alone be the one to define what those are? And will those definitions start to change as China becomes ever more powerful? These are hardly trivial concerns, given that about \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.cfr.org\/asia-and-pacific\/armed-clash-south-china-sea\/p27883\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003E$5 trillion\u003C\/a\u003E worth of goods pass through the South China Sea annually.\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EThen there\u2019s what might be called Beijing\u2019s softer line, based on rights accorded by the legal concepts of the \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.un.org\/Depts\/los\/convention_agreements\/texts\/unclos\/part2.htm\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Eterritorial sea\u003C\/a\u003E and the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). Under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which took effect in 1994 and has been signed by 167 states (including China but not the United States), a country has sovereign control within 12 nautical miles of its coast as well as of land formations in that perimeter visible at high tide. But other countries have the right of \u201cinnocent passage.\u201d The EEZ goes further. It provides a rightful claimant control over access to fishing, as well as seabed and subsoil natural resources\u003Cstrong\u003E,\u003C\/strong\u003E within \u201can area beyond and adjacent to the territorial sea\u201d extending 200 nautical miles, while ensuring other states\u2019 freedom of passage by air and sea. \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.un.org\/depts\/los\/convention_agreements\/texts\/unclos\/part5.htm\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003EUNCLOS\u003C\/a\u003E also gives a state with an EEZ control over \u201cthe establishment and use of artificial islands, installations, and structures\u201d within that zone\u2014an important provision at our present moment.\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EWhat makes all of this so much more complicated is that many of the islands and reefs in the South China Sea that provide the basis for defining China\u2019s EEZ are also claimed by other countries under the terms of UNCLOS. That, of course, immediately raises questions about the legality of Beijing\u2019s military construction \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/fas.org\/sgp\/crs\/row\/R42784.pdf\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Eprojects\u003C\/a\u003E in that watery expanse on islands, atolls, and strips of land it\u2019s dredging into existence, as well as its claims to seabed energy resources, fishing rights, and land reclamation rights there\u2014to say nothing about its willingness to seize some of them by force, rival claims be damned.\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EMoreover, figuring out which of these two positions\u2014hard or soft\u2014China embraces at any moment is tricky indeed. Beijing, for instance, insists that it upholds freedom of navigation and overflight rights in the Sea, but it has also \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/fas.org\/sgp\/crs\/row\/R42784.pdf\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Esaid\u003C\/a\u003E that these rights don\u2019t apply to warships and military aircraft. In recent years its warplanes have \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/6cd8142c-1d70-11e6-a7bc-ee846770ec15\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Eintercepted\u003C\/a\u003E, and at close quarters, American military aircraft flying outside Chinese territorial waters in the same region. Similarly, in \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2015\/10\/27\/asia\/us-china-south-china-sea\/\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003E2015\u003C\/a\u003E, Chinese aircraft and ships followed and issued warnings to an American warship off \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/virtualglobetrotting.com\/map\/chinese-outpost-on-subi-reef\/view\/google\/\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003ESubi Reef\u003C\/a\u003E in the Spratly Islands, which both China and Vietnam claim in their entirety. This past December, its Navy seized, but later returned, an underwater drone the American naval ship \u003Cem\u003EBowditch\u003C\/em\u003E had been operating near the coast of the Philippines.\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EThere were similar incidents in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2009, 2013, and 2014. In the second of these episodes, a Chinese fighter jet \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2001\/04\/02\/world\/us-plane-in-china-after-it-collides-with-chinese-jet.html\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Ecollided\u003C\/a\u003E with a US Navy EP-3 reconnaissance plane, which had a crew of 24 on board, less than 70 miles off Hainan island, forcing it to make an emergency landing in China and creating a tense standoff between Beijing and Washington. The Chinese detained the crew for 11 days. They disassembled the EP-3, returning it three months later in pieces.\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003ESuch muscle flexing in the South China Sea isn\u2019t new. China has long been tough on its weaker neighbors in those waters. Back in \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.usnwc.edu\/getattachment\/7b5ec8a0-cc48-4d9b-b558-a4f1cf92e7b8\/The1974ParacelsSeaBattle.aspx\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003E1974\u003C\/a\u003E, for instance, its forces ejected South Vietnamese troops from parts of the Paracel\/Xisha islands that Beijing claimed but did not yet control. China has also backed up its claim to the Spratly\/Nansha islands (which Taiwan, Vietnam, and other regional countries reject) with air and naval patrols, tough talk, and more. In \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.scmp.com\/news\/asia\/article\/1192472\/spratly-islands-dispute-defines-china-vietnam-relations-25-years-after\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003E1988\u003C\/a\u003E, it forcibly occupied the Vietnamese-controlled Johnson Reef, securing control over the first of what would eventually become seven possessions in the Spratlys.\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EVietnam has not been the only Southeast Asian country to receive such rough treatment. China and the Philippines both claim ownership of Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal\/Huangyang Island, \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.google.com\/search?q=scarborough+shoal+map&espv=2&biw=1432&bih=734&tbm=isch&imgil=97LeBrIvCCiSsM%3A%3BnBPk9UkPinC6mM%3Bhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Fworld-asia-33518673&source=iu&pf=m&fir=97LeBrIvCCiSsM%3A%2CnBPk9UkPinC6mM%2C_&usg=__bmEVZIXZmsgpcFEaF6bcA0l9Xys%3D&dpr=2&ved=0ahUKEwiuj7jUy_7RAhWHq1QKHbynDcMQyjcIOQ&ei=rw6aWO57h9fSArzPtpgM#imgrc=97LeBrIvCCiSsM:\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Elocated\u003C\/a\u003E 124 nautical miles off Luzon Island in the Philippines. In 2012, Beijing simply \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/nationalinterest.org\/commentary\/learning-the-lessons-scarborough-reef-9442\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Eseized\u003C\/a\u003E it, having already ejected Manila from Panganiban Reef (aka Mischief Reef), about 129 nautical miles from the Philippines\u2019 Palawan Island, in \u003Ca href=\u0022file:\/\/localhost\/Users\/rajanmenon\/Downloads\/ADA309432.pdf\u0022\u003E1995\u003C\/a\u003E. In 2016, when an international arbitration tribunal \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/pca-cpa.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/175\/2016\/07\/PH-CN-20160712-Award.pdf\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Eupheld\u003C\/a\u003E Manila\u2019s position on Mischief Reef and Scarborough Shoal, the Chinese Foreign Ministry \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/07\/13\/world\/asia\/south-china-sea-hague-ruling-philippines.html?_r=0\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Esniffed\u003C\/a\u003E that \u201cthe decision is invalid and has no binding force.\u201d Chinese president Xi Jinping \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/3cdcbf42-4814-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86ab\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Eadded\u003C\/a\u003E for good measure that China\u2019s claims to the South China Sea stretched back to \u201cancient times.\u201d\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EThen there\u2019s China\u2019s military \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2015\/07\/30\/world\/asia\/what-china-has-been-building-in-the-south-china-sea-2016.html\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Econstruction\u003C\/a\u003E work in the area, which includes the building of full-scale artificial islands, as well as harbors, military airfields, storage facilities, and hangars reinforced to protect military aircraft. In addition, the Chinese have installed radar systems, anti-aircraft missiles, and anti-missile defense systems on some of these islands.\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EThese\u003Cstrong\u003E, \u003C\/strong\u003Ethen, are the projects that the Trump administration says it will stop. But China\u2019s conduct in the South China Sea leaves little doubt about its determination to hold onto what it has and continue its activities. The Chinese leadership has made this \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-china-southchinasea-idUSKBN1572M4\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Eclear\u003C\/a\u003E since Donald Trump\u2019s election, and the state-run press has struck a similarly defiant note, drawing crude red lines of its own. For example, the \u003Cem\u003EGlobal Times\u003C\/em\u003E, a nationalist newspaper, \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.globaltimes.cn\/content\/1028568.shtml\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Emocked\u003C\/a\u003E Trump\u2019s pretensions and issued a doomsday warning: \u201cThe US has no absolute power to dominate the South China Sea. Tillerson had better bone up on nuclear strategies if he wants to force a big nuclear power to withdraw from its own territories.\u201d\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EWere the administration to follow its threatening talk with military action, the \u003Cem\u003EGlobal Times\u003C\/em\u003E added ominously, \u201cThe two sides had better prepare for a military clash.\u201d Although the Chinese leadership hasn\u2019t been anywhere near as bombastic, top officials have made it clear that they won\u2019t yield an inch on the South China Sea, that disputes over territories are matters for China and its neighbors to settle, and that Washington had best \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.abc.net.au\/news\/2017-01-25\/china-tells-trump-to-stay-out-of-south-china-sea-dispute\/8212246\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Ebutt out\u003C\/a\u003E.\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003ETrue, as the acolytes of a \u201cunipolar\u201d world remind us, China\u2019s military spending amounts to barely more than a \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.globalfirepower.com\/defense-spending-budget.asp\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Equarter\u003C\/a\u003E of Washington\u2019s and US naval and air forces are far more \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/articles\/united-states\/2016-04-13\/once-and-future-superpower\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Eadvanced\u003C\/a\u003E and lethal than their Chinese equivalents. However, although there certainly is a debate about the legal validity and historical accuracy of China\u2019s territorial claims, given the increasingly acrimonious relationship between Washington and Beijing the more strategically salient point may be that these territories, thousands of miles from the US mainland, mean so much more to China than they do to the United States. By now, they are inextricably bound up with its national identity and pride, and with powerful historical and nationalistic memories\u2014with, that is, a sense that, after nearly two centuries of humiliation at the hands of the West, China is now a rising global power that can no longer be pushed around.\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EBehind such sentiments lies steel. By buying some \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.theasanforum.org\/evolution-of-sino-russian-defense-cooperation-since-the-cold-war\/\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003E$30 billion\u003C\/a\u003E in advanced Russian armaments since the early 1990s and developing the capacity to build advanced weaponry of its own, China has methodically acquired the military means, and devised a \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.usnwc.edu\/Lucent\/OpenPdf.aspx?id=95\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Estrategy\u003C\/a\u003E, to inflict serious losses on the American navy in any clash in the South China Sea, where geography serves as its ally. Beijing may, in the end, lose a showdown there, but rest assured that it would exact a heavy price before that. What sort of \u201cvictory\u201d would that be?\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EIf the fighting starts, it will be tough for the presidents of either country to back down. Xi Jinping, like Trump, presents himself as a \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.newstatesman.com\/politics\/2015\/06\/what-west-should-know-about-xi-jinping-china-s-most-powerful-leader-mao\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Etough guy\u003C\/a\u003E, sure to trounce his enemies at home and abroad. Retaining that image requires that he not bend when it comes to defending China\u2019s land and honor. He faces another problem as well. Nationalism long ago sidelined Maoism in his country. As a result, were he and his colleagues to appear pusillanimous in the face of a Trumpian challenge, they would risk losing their legitimacy and potentially bringing their people onto the streets (something that can happen quickly in the age of social media). That\u2019s a particularly forbidding thought in what is arguably the \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.tomdispatch.com\/post\/175386\/tomgram%3A_engelhardt,_are_we_still_on_an_imperial_planet\/\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Emost rebellious\u003C\/a\u003E land in the historical record. In such circumstances, the leadership\u2019s abiding conviction that it can calibrate the public\u2019s nationalism to serve the Communist Party\u2019s purposes without letting it get out of hand may prove delusional.\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003ECertainly, the Party understands the danger that runaway nationalism could pose to its authority. Its paper, the \u003Cem\u003EPeople\u2019s Daily\u003C\/em\u003E, condemned the \u201c\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.economist.com\/news\/china\/21702527-xi-jinping-tries-contain-public-fury-over-south-china-sea-my-nationalism-and-dont-you?zid=306&ah=1b164dbd43b0cb27ba0d4c3b12a5e227\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Eirrational patriotism\u003C\/a\u003E\u201d that manifested itself in social media forums and street protests after the recent international tribunal\u2019s verdict favoring the Philippines. And that\u2019s hardly the first time a foreign-policy fracas has excited public passions. Think, for example, of the anti-Japanese demonstrations that swept the country in 2005, provoked by Japanese school textbooks that sanitized that country\u2019s World War II\u2013era atrocities in China. Those protests spread to \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2005\/apr\/17\/china.japan\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Emany cities\u003C\/a\u003E, and the numbers were sizeable with more than \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-dyn\/articles\/A58567-2005Apr16.html\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003E10,000\u003C\/a\u003E angry demonstrators on the streets of Shanghai alone. At first, the leadership encouraged the rallies, but it got nervous as things started to spin out of control.\t\t\n\u003Ch6\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003E\u201cWe\u2019re Going to War in the South China Sea\u2026\u201d\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003C\/h6\u003E\n\u003Cp\u003EFacing off against China, President Trump could find himself in a similar predicament, having so emphasized his toughness, his determination to regain America\u2019s lost respect and make the country great again. The bigger problem, however, will undoubtedly be his own narcissism and his obsession with winning, not to mention his inability to resist sending incendiary messages via Twitter. Just try to imagine for a moment how a president who blows his stack during a getting-to-know-you \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/national-security\/no-gday-mate-on-call-with-australian-pm-trump-badgers-and-brags\/2017\/02\/01\/88a3bfb0-e8bf-11e6-80c2-30e57e57e05d_story.html?utm_term=.5c9e3b2e912e#comments\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Ephone call\u003C\/a\u003E with the prime minister of Australia, a close ally, is likely to conduct himself in a confrontation with a country he\u2019s labeled a prime adversary.\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EIn the event of a military crisis between China and the United States, neither side may want an escalation, to say nothing of a nuclear war. Yet Trump\u2019s threats to impose \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2017\/01\/15\/just-how-badly-could-trumps-threatened-45-tariff-hurt-china.html\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003E45 percent\u003C\/a\u003E tariffs on Chinese exports to the United States and his repeated condemnation of China as a \u201c\u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.latimes.com\/business\/la-fi-trump-china-currency-20161229-story.html\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Ecurrency manipulator\u003C\/a\u003E\u201d and \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-usa-election-trump-china-idUSKBN0OX0T820150617\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Estealer\u003C\/a\u003E of American jobs have already produced a poisonous atmosphere between the world\u2019s two most powerful countries. And it was made worse by his December phone \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/thehill.com\/blogs\/blog-briefing-room\/news\/308559-trump-makes-history-with-phone-call-to-taiwan-leader\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Econversation\u003C\/a\u003E with Taiwan\u2019s president, Tsai Ing-wen, which created \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/us-news\/2016\/dec\/12\/donald-trump-questions-us-commitment-to-one-china-policy\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Edoubts\u003C\/a\u003E about his commitment to the One China policy the United States has adhered to since 1972. The Chinese authorities apparently made it clear to the White House that there couldn\u2019t even be a first-time phone call to Xi unless the new president agreed to stick with that policy. During a conversation with the Chinese president on February 9, Trump \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/asia_pacific\/trump-agrees-to-honor-one-china-policy-in-call-to-xi-jinping\/2017\/02\/10\/ea6e7ece-ef4a-11e6-9973-c5efb7ccfb0d_story.html?utm_term=.262fa0d658a4\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Ereportedly\u003C\/a\u003E provided that essential assurance. Given the new American president\u2019s volatility, however, Beijing will be playing close attention to his words and actions, even his symbolic ones, related to Taiwan.\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003ESooner or later, if Trump doesn\u2019t also dial down the rest of his rhetoric on China, its leaders will surely ratchet up theirs, thereby aggravating the situation further. So far, they\u2019ve restrained themselves in order to figure Trump out\u2014not an easy task even for Americans\u2014and in hopes that his present way of dealing with the world might be replaced with something more conventional and recognizable. Hope, as they say, springs eternal, but as of now, in repeatedly insisting that China must do as he says, Trump and his surrogates have inserted themselves and the country into a complicated territorial dispute far from America\u2019s shores. Washington\u2019s hubris in acting as the keeper of world order but regularly breaking the rules as it wishes, whether by invading Iraq in 2003 or making open use of torture and a global network of secret prisons, is an aspect of American behavior long obvious to foreign powers. It looks to be the essence of Trumpism, too, even if its roots are old indeed.\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EDon\u2019t dismiss the importance of heated exchanges between Washington and Beijing in the wake of Trump\u2019s election. The political atmosphere between rival powers, especially those with massive arsenals, can matter a great deal when they face off in a crisis. Pernicious stereotypes and mutual mistrust only increase the odds that crucial information will be misinterpreted in the heat of the moment because of entrenched beliefs that are immune to contrary evidence, misperceptions, worst-case calculations, and up-the-ante reactions. In academic jargon, these constitute the ingredients for a classic \u003Ca href=\u0022http:\/\/www.oxfordscholarship.com\/view\/10.1093\/acprof:oso\/9780199737512.001.0001\/acprof-9780199737512-chapter-17\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Econflict spiral\u003C\/a\u003E. In such a situation, events take control of leaders, producing outcomes that none of them sought. Not for nothing during the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 did President John Kennedy \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/fas.org\/pir-pubs\/presidents-message-nuclear-guns-august\/\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Elook to\u003C\/a\u003E Barbara Tuchman\u2019s book, \u003Cem\u003EGuns of August\u2014\u003C\/em\u003Ea gripping account of how Europe slipped and slid into a disastrous world war in 1914.\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EThere has been lots of anxiety about the malign effects that Donald Trump\u2019s temperament and beliefs could have domestically, and for good reason. But in domestic politics, institutions and laws, civic organizations, the press, and public protests can serve, however imperfectly, as countervailing forces. In international politics, crises can erupt suddenly and unfold rapidly\u2014and the checks on rash behavior by American presidents are much weaker. They have considerable leeway to use military force (having repeatedly circumvented the War Powers Act). They can manipulate public opinion from the bully pulpit and shape the flow of information. (Think back to the Iraq war.) Congress typically rallies reflexively around the flag during international crises. In such moments, citizens\u2019 criticism or mass protest invites charges of disloyalty.\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EThis is why the brewing conflict in the South China Sea and rising animosities on both sides could produce something resembling a Cuban missile crisis\u2013style situation\u2014with the United States lacking the geographical advantage this time around. If you think that a war between China and the United States couldn\u2019t possibly happen, you might have a point in ordinary times, which these distinctly aren\u2019t.\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003ETake the latest news on Stephen Bannon, formerly the executive chairman of the alt-right publication \u003Cem\u003EBreitbart News\u003C\/em\u003E and now President Trump\u2019s chief political strategist. He has even been granted the right to sit in on every meeting of the National Security Council and its \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/politics\/archive\/2017\/01\/the-trump-national-security-council-an-analysis\/514910\/\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003EPrincipals Committee\u003C\/a\u003E, the highest inter-agency forum for day-to-day national security deliberations. He will be privy to meetings that, according to a \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.whitehouse.gov\/the-press-office\/2017\/01\/28\/presidential-memorandum-organization-national-security-council-and\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Edirective\u003C\/a\u003E signed by Trump, even the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the director of national intelligence may not join unless \u201cissues pertaining to their responsibilities and expertise will be discussed.\u201d Calling this a break with past practice would be an understatement of the first order.\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003ESo Bannon\u2019s views, once of interest only to a fringe group of Americans, now matter greatly. Here\u2019s what he said last March about China in a radio \u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=wdqoUSTgfmA\u0022 target=\u0022_blank\u0022\u003Einterview\u003C\/a\u003E: \u201cWe\u2019re going to war in the South China Sea in five to 10 years, aren\u2019t we? There\u2019s no doubt about that. They\u2019re taking their sandbars and making basically stationary aircraft carriers and putting missiles on those. They come here to the United States in front of our face\u2014and you understand how important face is\u2014and say it\u2019s an ancient territorial sea.\u201d\t\t\n\u003Cp\u003EThink of this as Bannon\u2019s version of apocalyptic prophecy. Then consider the volatility of the new president he advises. Then focus on the larger message: These are not ordinary times. Most Americans probably don\u2019t even know that there is a South China Sea. 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He is the author, most recently, of \u003Cem\u003EThe Conceit of Humanitarian Intervention\u003C\/em\u003E.\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\u003Cbr\/\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cdiv class=\u0022footer-module narrow contact-us\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cp\u003ETo submit a correction for our consideration,\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\tclick \u003Ca target=\u0022_blank\u0022 href=\u0022\/corrections?title=Is+Trump+Headed+for+a+War+With+China%3F&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenation.com%2Farticle%2Fis-trump-headed-for-a-war-with-china%2F\u0022\u003Ehere.\u003C\/a\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/p\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cp\u003EFor Reprints and Permissions, click \u003Ca target=\u0022_blank\u0022 href=\u0022http:\/\/www.thenationreprints.com\/services\/reprints\/\u0022\u003Ehere.\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/p\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\u003Cdiv id=\u0022comments_239234\u0022 class=\u0022commentContainer\u0022 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#respond --\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\u003C!-- comment sort setting start here --\u003E\n\n\t\t\t\u003Cdiv class=\u0022comment_sorting_setting_outer\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\u003Cdiv class=\u0022sort_com_label\u0022\u003ESort comments By:\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\u003Cselect id=\u0022comment_sorting_setting\u0022 name=\u0022comment_sorting_setting\u0022 class=\u0022comment_sorting_setting\u0022 comment_postid=\u0022239234\u0022 my-ajax-url=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/wp-admin\/admin-ajax.php\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Coption sort-attr=\u00221\u0022 selected=selected\u003EChronological Order\u003C\/option\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Coption sort-attr=\u00222\u0022 \u003EMost Liked\u003C\/option\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\u003C\/select\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\u003C!-- comment sort setting end here --\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\u003Cdiv class=\u0022clear\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t\t\t\n\t\n\t\t\u003C!-- comment list start here --\u003E\n\t\n\t\t\u003Col class=\u0022comment-list custom_comments\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\n\t\t\t \u003Cli id=\u0022comment-2109932142\u0022 class=\u0022comment byuser comment-author-600520688 even thread-even depth-1\u0022\u003E\n \u003Carticle id=\u0022div-comment-2109932142\u0022 commentIDVal=\u00222109932142\u0022 class=\u0022comment-body \u0022\u003E\n \t\t\u003Cdiv class=\u0022comment-content\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cb class=\u0022fn\u0022\u003ECurtis Carpenter\u003C\/b\u003E \u003Cspan class=\u0022says\u0022\u003Esays:\u003C\/span\u003E\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cdiv class=\u0022comment-metadata\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Ctime datetime=\u00222017-02-13T13:38:29+00:00\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tFebruary 13, 2017 at 1:38 pm\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/time\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C!-- .comment-metadata --\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cp\u003EAs General Buck Turgidson confidently and enthusiastically proclaims in Dr. Strangelove -- "No more than ten to twenty million killed -- tops!"\u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\n\u003Cbr \/\u003E\r\nhttps:\/\/www.youtube.com watch?v=HgyjlqhiTV8\u003C\/p\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cdiv class=\u0022ldc-cmt-box clearfix\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022ldc-ul_cont\u0022 onclick=\u0022alter_ul_post_values(this,2109932142,\u0027c_like\u0027)\u0022 \u003E\u003Cimg src=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/wp-content\/themes\/thenation\/images\/up.png\u0022 alt=\u0022upimg\u0022\/\u003E(\u003Cspan\u003E0\u003C\/span\u003E)\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022ldc-ul_cont\u0022 onclick=\u0022alter_ul_post_values(this,2109932142,\u0027c_dislike\u0027)\u0022 \u003E\u003Cimg src=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/wp-content\/themes\/thenation\/images\/down.png\u0022 alt=\u0022downimg\u0022\/\u003E(\u003Cspan\u003E0\u003C\/span\u003E)\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C!-- .comment-content --\u003E\n\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\u003C\/article\u003E\n\t\t\t\n\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C!-- #comment-## --\u003E\n\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C!-- #comment-## --\u003E\n \u003Cli id=\u0022comment-2109932141\u0022 class=\u0022comment byuser comment-author-600297782 odd alt thread-odd thread-alt depth-1\u0022\u003E\n \u003Carticle id=\u0022div-comment-2109932141\u0022 commentIDVal=\u00222109932141\u0022 class=\u0022comment-body \u0022\u003E\n \t\t\u003Cdiv class=\u0022comment-content\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cb class=\u0022fn\u0022\u003EChris Darling\u003C\/b\u003E \u003Cspan class=\u0022says\u0022\u003Esays:\u003C\/span\u003E\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cdiv class=\u0022comment-metadata\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Ctime datetime=\u00222017-02-13T13:20:01+00:00\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tFebruary 13, 2017 at 1:20 pm\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/time\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C!-- .comment-metadata --\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cp\u003EPart of why this is a nightmare is that, in times of war, the level of approval of the President almost always goes way up. Could provoking a war with China help get Trump the approval to destroy much of what is positive about government? I hope I am wrong. I also hope that Trump bungles confrontation with China as completely as he has almost everything else.\u003C\/p\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cdiv class=\u0022ldc-cmt-box clearfix\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022ldc-ul_cont\u0022 onclick=\u0022alter_ul_post_values(this,2109932141,\u0027c_like\u0027)\u0022 \u003E\u003Cimg src=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/wp-content\/themes\/thenation\/images\/up.png\u0022 alt=\u0022upimg\u0022\/\u003E(\u003Cspan\u003E0\u003C\/span\u003E)\u003C\/span\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022ldc-ul_cont\u0022 onclick=\u0022alter_ul_post_values(this,2109932141,\u0027c_dislike\u0027)\u0022 \u003E\u003Cimg src=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/wp-content\/themes\/thenation\/images\/down.png\u0022 alt=\u0022downimg\u0022\/\u003E(\u003Cspan\u003E0\u003C\/span\u003E)\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/div\u003E\u003C!-- .comment-content --\u003E\n\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\u003C\/article\u003E\n\t\t\t\n\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C!-- #comment-## --\u003E\n\u003C\/li\u003E\u003C!-- #comment-## --\u003E\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\u003C\/ol\u003E\n\t\t\n\t\t\u003C!--comment list end here--\u003E\n\t\t\n\t\t\t\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C!--Comment area end here --\u003E\t\t\t\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/footer\u003E\n\t\t\u003Cfooter class=\u0022article-footer recirc-block recirc-block-autoload\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\u003Cdiv class=\u0022footer-module full-width-mobile recirc-block\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cdiv class=\u0022recirc column\u0022 id=\u0022recirccol-239234\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cul class=\u0022tag-browser\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca name=\u0022armed-conflicts\u0022 class=\u0022other\u0022 href=\u0022#\u0022\u003EArmed Conflicts\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca name=\u0022china\u0022 class=\u0022other\u0022 href=\u0022#\u0022\u003EChina\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\t\t\t \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cli\u003E\u003Ca name=\u0022us-military\u0022 class=\u0022other\u0022 href=\u0022#\u0022\u003EUS Military\u003C\/a\u003E\u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/ul\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cdiv class=\u0022recirc-carousel\u0022 id=\u0022recirccar-239234\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cul id=\u0022armed-conflicts\u0022 class=\u0022article-list\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cli\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Ctime\u003EFeb 10, 2017\u003C\/time\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Ch2 class=\u0022title\u0022\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/trump-takes-a-running-whack-at-the-liberal-interventionists\/\u0022 onclick=\u0022ga(\u0027send\u0027, \u0027event\u0027, \u0027Article Footer\u0027, \u0027Click Article Footer\u0027, \u0027https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/trump-takes-a-running-whack-at-the-liberal-interventionists\/\u0027, \u00270\u0027)\u0022\u003ETrump Takes a Running Whack at the Liberal Interventionists\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cspan class=\u0022author\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tBy Patrick Lawrence\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/h2\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cli\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Ctime\u003EFeb 08, 2017\u003C\/time\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Ch2 class=\u0022title\u0022\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/ukraine-revisited\/\u0022 onclick=\u0022ga(\u0027send\u0027, \u0027event\u0027, \u0027Article Footer\u0027, \u0027Click Article Footer\u0027, \u0027https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/ukraine-revisited\/\u0027, \u00270\u0027)\u0022\u003EUkraine Revisited\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cspan class=\u0022author\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tBy Stephen F. Cohen\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/h2\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/ul\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cul id=\u0022china\u0022 class=\u0022article-list\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cli\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Ctime\u003EJan 24, 2017\u003C\/time\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Ch2 class=\u0022title\u0022\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/trump-finished-off-tpp-but-what-is-his-real-trade-agenda\/\u0022 onclick=\u0022ga(\u0027send\u0027, \u0027event\u0027, \u0027Article Footer\u0027, \u0027Click Article Footer\u0027, \u0027https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/trump-finished-off-tpp-but-what-is-his-real-trade-agenda\/\u0027, \u00270\u0027)\u0022\u003ETrump Finished Off the TPP, but What Is His Real Trade Agenda?\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cspan class=\u0022author\u0022\u003E\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tBy David Dayen\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/h2\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cli\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Ctime\u003EJan 17, 2017\u003C\/time\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Ch2 class=\u0022title\u0022\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/these-4-foreign-policy-crises-are-primed-to-explode-under-president-trump\/\u0022 onclick=\u0022ga(\u0027send\u0027, \u0027event\u0027, \u0027Article Footer\u0027, \u0027Click Article Footer\u0027, \u0027https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/these-4-foreign-policy-crises-are-primed-to-explode-under-president-trump\/\u0027, \u00270\u0027)\u0022\u003EThese 4 Foreign Policy Crises Are Primed to Explode Under President Trump\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cspan class=\u0022author\u0022\u003E\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tBy Michael T. Klare\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/h2\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/ul\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cul id=\u0022us-military\u0022 class=\u0022article-list\u0022\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cli\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Ctime\u003EYesterday 2:55 pm\u003C\/time\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Ch2 class=\u0022title\u0022\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/americas-favorite-syrian-militia-rules-with-an-iron-fist\/\u0022 onclick=\u0022ga(\u0027send\u0027, \u0027event\u0027, \u0027Article Footer\u0027, \u0027Click Article Footer\u0027, \u0027https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/americas-favorite-syrian-militia-rules-with-an-iron-fist\/\u0027, \u00270\u0027)\u0022\u003EAmerica\u2019s Favorite Syrian Militia Rules With an Iron Fist\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cspan class=\u0022author\u0022\u003E\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tBy Roy Gutman\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/h2\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Cli\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Ctime\u003EFeb 10, 2017\u003C\/time\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003Ch2 class=\u0022title\u0022\u003E\u003Ca href=\u0022https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/in-south-korea-women-are-leading-the-resistance-to-us-backed-militarization\/\u0022 onclick=\u0022ga(\u0027send\u0027, \u0027event\u0027, \u0027Article Footer\u0027, \u0027Click Article Footer\u0027, \u0027https:\/\/www.thenation.com\/article\/in-south-korea-women-are-leading-the-resistance-to-us-backed-militarization\/\u0027, \u00270\u0027)\u0022\u003EIn South Korea, Women Are Leading the Resistance to US-Backed Militarization\u003C\/a\u003E \u003Cspan class=\u0022author\u0022\u003E\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tBy Christine Ahn\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/h2\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/ul\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t\t\t\t\u003Cstyle\u003E\n.tout.footer.donate.CTidcjNYEa{\nbackground: #cc0e0e !important;\n}\n.tout.footer.donate p{color: #ffffff !important;}\n.tout.footer.donate .btn{\n border:3px solid #ffffff !important;\n color: #ffffff !important;\n background: #cc0e0e !important;\n}\n.tout.footer.donate .btn:hover{\n background:#ffffff !important;\n color:#cc0e0e !important;\n}\n\u003C\/style\u003E\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022tout footer donate column CTidcjNYEa\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cdiv class=\u0022donate-wrapper\u0022\u003E\n \u003Cp\u003E\u201cThere are few places where one can still read courageous journalism. 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