While the Labor Department’s announcement last Friday that US employers had created 192,000 new jobs seems to confirm that the American economy is indeed showing signs of life, the adjective most observers have used to describe its recovery is “fragile.” The reasons are obvious: unemployment is still staggeringly high, household debt and underwater mortgages continue to put a drag on demand, and impending budget cuts by state and federal government could push unemployment back up and the economy back towards contraction.
But arguably the biggest threat to recovery is the price of oil. If oil prices in particular, and commodities in general, begin to rise, those trends will almost certainly constrain demand and consumer confidence at exactly the moment they are most needed. This week oil traded at $104.42 a barrel, up 7 percent from last week and at its highest since the September 26, 2008, close at $106.89. And we know from recent experience the oil prices (along with all sorts of other commodities) can skyrocket with little warning. Cast your memory back to the summer of 2008, before the financial crisis and in the heat of the presidential campaign. That summer, oil hit $147 a barrel and gas hit above $4 a gallon; airfare went through the roof and nearly every single major carrier came very close to declaring bankruptcy. Food prices shot up as well, with wheat trading up 137 percent year over year in July 2008, and corn 98 percent. Famine and food riots spread throughout the globe.
Though it seems like a distant memory now, for about six weeks during the 2008 presidential campaign, all anyone talked about was the price of gas. John McCain and Hillary Clinton went so far to advocate for a temporary repeal of the gas tax, Congress held hearings and the Senate actually came close to passing legislation to crack down on oil speculation. And lest we forget, it was in this panic over the rising cost of living that the catchphrase “drill baby drill” was born.
So the White House should not only be worried about oil prices and recovery. They should also be worried about the well-established fact that when the price of gas spikes, the country’s politics go haywire. FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver recently showed that high gas prices are correlated with poor incumbent party performance in presidential elections. So not only do rising oil prices present the single greatest substantive policy challenge to a president attempting to cajole the economy into a sustained expansion—it presents the biggest political danger as well.
At first blush you might think that there’s not a whole lot the president can do about the price of oil. After all, increase in demand from China and India plus seasonal demand in the United States during peak driving months, combined with the instability in the Middle East, all seem to be pushing the price of oil up and are all outside the White House’s control. But that’s not the whole story.
In the wake of the price explosion in the summer of 2008, a bubble that extended to all kinds of commodities, including copper and wheat, a number of observers from George Soros to Hedge Fund manager Michael Masters to former Commodities Future Trading Commission staffer and derivatives expert Michael Greenberg concluded that the underlying supply-and-demand fundamentals couldn’t account for the sharp rise in prices. In the first six months of 2008, US economic output was declining while global supply was increasing. And even if supply and demand were, over the long run, pushing the price of oil up, that alone couldn’t explain the massive volatility in the market. Oil cost $65 per barrel in June 2007, $147 a year later, down to $30 in December 2008 and back up to $72 in June 2009.