Travel day for me, so light posting. (O’Hare on the day after Mother’s day is not a place you want to be)

But if you read one piece of campaign commentary today, read this fascinating piece by Josh Kalven over at the excellent Progress Illinois.

In the piece, Kalven interviews the myserious Kos diarist Poblano. Poblano has developed his own statistical model of turnout that has proven remarkably accurate in predicting the results in primary contests. In the piece, Kalven has Poblano use his model to project what kind of electoral college gains Obama would reap in the general for every 10% he increases African American turnout. The results are eye-opening:

Recently, Progress Illinois and the SEIU Illinois Council (which sponsors us) asked Poblano to examine how incremental increases in turnout among certain demographic groups would affect the outcome of an Obama-McCain contest. What he found underscores the importance of voter mobilization this year. (You can find Poblano’s own analysis here.)

Take the African-American vote, for example. With each 10 percent increase in black turnout nationwide, Obama gains an average of 13 electoral votes, while his chance of winning jumps by about eight points.