Henry Paulson’s $700 billion plan to save the world is dead or dying, but the bailout was not killed by his arrogance or his grossly misleading claims about what the public’s money would buy. The plan collapsed because it didn’t work. The Treasury secretary has launched a PR offensive to revive his falling influence. Too late. The Democrats should be equally embarrassed. In September their leaders in Congress rushed to embrace the Paulson solution, no hard questions asked. They now claim they were duped.
Paulson’s squad at Treasury pumped $250 billion into the largest banks, buying their stock at inflated prices on the assumption it would persuade investors to step forward with their capital too. Instead, savvy financial players realized Paulson was spitting into a high wind, trying to save a system with stout talk.
Here is the ugly, unofficial truth that neither Wall Street nor the government will acknowledge: the pinnacle of the US financial system is broke–with perhaps $2 trillion in rotten financial assets on the books. Nobody knows, exactly. The bankers won’t say, and regulators won’t ask, or at least don’t dare tell the public. Official silence naturally feeds the conviction that banking’s problems are far worse than we’ve been told. The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College puts it plainly: “It is probable that many and perhaps most financial institutions are insolvent today–with a black hole of negative net worth that would swallow Paulson’s entire $700 billion in one gulp.”
The scale of this disaster explains why the Treasury secretary had to abandon his original plan to buy up failed mortgages and other bad assets from the banks. If government paid the true value for these nearly worthless assets, the banks would have to write down huge losses or, as Levy economists put it, “announce to the world that they are insolvent.” On the other hand, if Paulson pumps the purchase price high enough to protect the banks from losses, $700 billion “will buy only a tiny fraction of the ‘troubled’ assets.”
Paulson was trapped by these circumstances (and his own mendacity). Each time he tried to change the script, market insiders became even more alarmed. Congress is trapped too. So is President-elect Obama. From the outset of the crisis, the essential fallacy shared by governing influentials has been a wishful assumption that quick interventions with tons of public money would somehow restore the system to “normal” without disturbing free-market principles. Replenished banks would start lending again and lead us to recovery. “Normal” is not going to happen. If the new president does not break free of the denial and act decisively, his administration will be dangerously compromised from the start.
Obama can begin by declaring a “bank holiday” like FDR’s in 1933–an opportunity to put the hard facts on the table and assume temporary control of the entire financial system. Nationalizing the banks sounds more radical than it is, since banking law already empowers regulators to impose extraordinary controls and close supervision over troubled institutions. Facing facts will be painful, but it’s better than continuing a costly charade. Paulson’s approach, endorsed by many Democrats, was designed to preserve oversized Wall Street titans. In fact, Paulson and the Federal Reserve are making things worse by creating new members of the privileged club of “too big to fail.” Public money is being used to finance bank takeovers that will become new behemoths.