As the 2016 election intensifies, one of the frequently discussed political fissures is that between the wealthy elites in each of the major parties and their bases. David Frum and other pundits have argued that the divide is most stark for the GOP, but no one has yet brought data to the question. So I used a mass survey that is performed each election year and that includes questions about austerity policies to examine the divide between wealthy and low-income Republicans and Democrats. I found striking results.
I drew from the 2012 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, a survey with a large sample size of more than 50,000. (Of those, nearly 22,000 Democrats and 17,000 Republicans both reported their income and responded to a battery of questions related to the federal budget.) Many surveys stop dividing respondents by annual income after they reach $100,000, a practice known as top coding, but CCES includes a meaningful sample of respondents all the way up to $350,000. As a result, the data allow for a more granular examination of those at the highest levels of the economic ladder.
I examined support for three policies that relate closely to redistribution and inequality: the 2010 Bowles-Simpson bipartisan plan for deficit reduction; Representative Paul Ryan’s budget proposal for FY2012, which he put forward as the GOP’s “Roadmap” to a fiscally sound future; and extension of George W. Bush’s tax cuts. Each of these policies has the potential to divide the donor class and the base of each party, as they all involve key questions about redistribution, where the deepest class divides typically appear.
In the survey, each policy was explained to participants, who were then asked if they supported or opposed it. The data do in fact reveal deep class divides within the parties on redistributive issues, but particularly within the GOP.
The Ryan Budget
Polling explanation: “The Budget plan would cut Medicare and Medicaid by 42%. Would reduce debt by 16% by 2020.”
Among all respondents in both parties, only 20 percent supported the budget, making it incredibly unpopular. Among Democrats, opposition was universal: Only 11 percent supported it. Among Republicans, support was equally tepid: Only a third of all Republicans supported the Ryan budget.
However, when looking at responses by income on the Republican side, wide gaps emerge. Among Republicans earning less than $50,000, only a quarter of respondents supported the budget, while among Republicans earning more than $350,000, a full 64 percent supported it.
The Bowles-Simpson Plan
Polling explanation: “Plan would make 15% cuts across the board in Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and Defense, as well as other programs. Eliminate many tax breaks for individuals and corporations. Would reduce debt by 21% by 2020.”