I’ll update some untidy results as we all shake the cobwebs after a long night. NYT still has not called Florida, though Obama leads, but others have given it to him. Crucially, he is now up about 2 percent in the popular vote.
Wash Post on all the uncalled races. Things I didn't know: Ron Barber, who took Gabby Giffords seat, trails. So do Reps. Dan Lungren and Mary Bono Mack. If the latter loses, it must be first time a husband and wife lost on same time (hubby lost Florida Senate race badly). And yes, it looks bad for Rep. Allen West.
Byron York, venerable and usually wrong right-wing writer, now promoting Romney aides whining about Sandy causing loss, as it stopped Mitt’s “momentum”—which was non-existent when storm hit. Expect this to be main GOP talking point in months ahead. Fine. Learning, and accepting, nothing, they will then nominate another weak loser in 2016.
Wall Street Journal editorial page, which was wrong about everything, pouts, says Obama was just lucky, and blames Romney loss on (1) Sandy, (2) John Roberts and (3) Ben Bernanke. And now writes: “President Obama won one of the narrower re-elections in modern times Tuesday, eking out a second term with a fraction of his 7.3 percent margin of 2008, in a polarized country with the opposition GOP retaining and still dominating the House. Given that second Presidential terms are rarely better than the first, this is best described as the voters doubling down on hope over experience.”
Yes, Obama really did win 303 or more electoral votes and Nate Silver was 100 percent correct—even down to Florida 50/50—as far as I can count, including the 2 percent edge in popular vote (many final polls had it tied, Rasmussen and Gallup had Romney #1). See his late-night wrap-up, in which he does not crow about it. He does observe that predictions about more self-ID Democrats, so crucial to polling—and blasted by right-wingers as “skeewed”—turned out right, allowing Obama to lose independent votes. Says he was heading out for a beer and would “unpack” a lot later.
Ross Douthat at NYT admits that he overestimated the number of Repubs out—so bow down to Nate, Ross. He also continues myth of Romney with “late lead”—which he never, ever, had, as per Nate Silver, yours truly and many others.
Rep. Michele Bachmann, sad to say, seems to have won—by about 3,000 votes out of 350,000 cast. Rep. Allen West trails but race in Florida has not yet been called. Sen. Jon Tester leads by 17,000 votes with 84 percent in. Heidi Heitkamp lead by 3000 votes in the Senate race in North Dakota with 100 percent but not called, maybe due to recount. If Dems win both they hold very nice 55-45 edge in new Senate.
Note: The first e-book on Obama-Romney race has been published—and it’s mine! Tricks, Lies and Videotape covers contest right up to Election Night.