When Ayatollah Abdel Majid al-Khoei was stabbed to death earlier this month by a mob in Shiite Islam’s holiest mosque, the bloody event was widely described as a blow to the forces of reconciliation in Iraq. But his death also means that another, less US-friendly ayatollah lost one of his chief rivals in the competition for leadership of Iraq’s Shiite majority. Ayatollah Mohammad Baqer al-Hakim’s organization, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), claims some 10,000 trained members in its military arm, the Badr Brigade, and has a history of launching violent attacks against Saddam Hussein’s regime. Fawaz Gerges, a professor of International Affairs and Middle Eastern Studies at Sarah Lawrence, says the militant group could potentially become “the Hezbollah of Iraq.” Whether that potential is realized may depend on how the United States treats SCIRI during the next critical stages of forming an interim government.
Hakim says that he is poised to return to Iraq–and that it is time for the United States to leave. His group has already displayed its militancy by boycotting the Iraqi opposition conference that began on April 15, a stance some SCIRI officials took within hours of Saddam’s statue falling, charging that the meeting was “part of General [Jay] Garner’s rule of Iraq and we are not going to be part of that project at all.” Just days earlier, on April 11, more than fifty Iraqi expatriates living in Iran stormed the Iraqi Embassy there. They tore down portraits of Saddam and replaced them with portraits of Hakim and SCIRI military banners as they chanted not only “Death to Saddam” but “Death to America.” As Time reported on April 10, SCIRI also vowed “to take up arms against American forces if they remain in Iraq after deposing Saddam.”
It’s worth noting, in the wake of these recent protests, that SCIRI was one of only six opposition groups–and one of just two Shiite groups–that the Bush Administration made eligible for $92 million in US military assistance last year. The other primarily Shiite group was the ethically challenged Ahmad Chalabi’s umbrella organization, the Iraqi National Congress.
The Administration may not have asked enough questions then about the implications of offering SCIRI political and financial support, but now that Baghdad has fallen, SCIRI is likely to emerge as a potent force in shaping the future of Iraq. According to Gerges, “SCIRI can neither be ignored nor dismissed.”
Gerges, author of the forthcoming The Islamists and the West, calls SCIRI “one of the most organized political-religious movements within the Shiite community” and says the group has widespread appeal among the rising population of religiously-oriented Shiites, whose numbers have grown under the economic hardships of the past decade. Chalabi and Khoei both maintained ties with the US military and, despite the occasional rhetorical gesture of independence, have generally been seen as pro-Western and moderate, but Hakim has demonstrated profound ambivalence toward the United States and offered mixed messages about his own political vision: encouraging US support of Iraqi efforts to topple Saddam, yet stopping short of endorsing a US invasion; suggesting Sharia, or Islamic law, “should be the basis for legislation,” yet claiming to support democracy in Iraq. SCIRI’s history provides significant cause for concern, but also suggests that the group could become more moderate if it has a place at the table.