Just twenty-four to go, as we transition from polls to the polls. Here are the latest indications, updated just now. Also note: the first e-book on Obama-Romney just published today, and it’s mine. It’s titled Tricks, Lies, and Videotape. You can order now, for Kindles, iPad etc. or wait for update on Wednesday.
POLLS UPDATED: Latest from Nate Silver: odds on Obama winning up to 86.3 percent—highest mark since just before the first debate. Bunch of national polls all show Obama winning or at worst tied. And swing states remain in good shape for him, mainly.
Updated AP survey of early voting gives Dems clear edge everywhere except in Colorado (where they barely trail). Huge edge in Iowa and North Carolina. He probably has big edge in Ohio, but state does not release the breakdown of Dems and Repubs who have voted.
NYT swing-state tracker has Obama ahead in all except North Carolina and Fla., where it’s close. The WMUR poll in New Hampshire puts Obama 3 percent up there as GOP desperately searches for long-shot routes to victory—via Pennsylvania and Minnesota. Good luck with that.
Final USA Today poll, via Gallup, of battleground states finds a dead heat there, which is actually a 4 percent “surge” for Obama, they note. They ID return of massive gender gap—16 percent Obama edge among women.
Reuters-Ipsos has Obama up 4 percent in Ohio and 1 percent in Virginia. PPP has him up 2 percent in Iowa.
Big one, final Pew poll just out, gives Obama 3 percent edge with likely voters—7 percent among registered voters. When they add in leaners it’s still 3 percent, at 50 percent–47 percent. You might recall they had Romney up by 4 percent, a good margin, last month at one point. Women now favor Obama by 13 percent—and remember it was Pew that raised eyebrows last month when it found no gender gap.
Another reason for gain? Almost seven in ten approve his handling of Sandy and almost half of Romney backers. Beyond the new Chris Christie bromance, I’m not sure what they are hailing, but then again, I was without power for days.
Talking Points Memo today says only Florida and North Carolina remain true “tossups.” It’s assigned most of the swing states to Obama, giving him just over 300 electoral votes even without the two toss-ups. We will see.