[ Part 1 of “Six Crises in Search of an Author, How the Bush Administration Destabilized the Arc of Instability”– “Bush’s Absurdist Imperialism” — appeared yesterday. Here is part 2:]
Sweeping across the region from East to West, let’s briefly note the six festering or clamoring crisis spots, any one of which could end up with the major role in the epic drama George Bush and his neocons supporters thought they were writing back in their Global War on Terror glory days.
Pakistan: The Pakistani government was America’s main partner, along with the Saudis, in funding, arming, and running the anti-Soviet struggle of the mujahedeen, including Osama bin Laden, in Afghanistan back in the 1980s; and Pakistan’s intelligence agency, the ISI, was the godfather of the Taliban (and remains, it seems, a supporter to this day). In September 2001, the Bush administration gave the country’s coup-installed military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, the basic you’re-either-with-us-or-against-us choice. He chose the “with” and in the course of these last years, under constant American pressure, has lost almost complete control over Pakistan’s tribal regions along the Afghan border to various tribal groups, the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and other foreign jihadis, who have established bases there. Now, significant parts of the country are experiencing unrest in what looks increasingly like a countdown to chaos in a nuclear-armed nation.
Afghanistan: In the meantime, from those Pakistani base areas, the revived and rearmed Taliban (and their al-Qaeda partners) are preparing to launch a major spring offensive in Afghanistan, using tactics from the Iraq War (suicide bombers or “Mullah Omar’s Missiles,” as they call them, and the roadside bomb or IED). They are already capable of taking over southern Afghan districts for periods of time. The Bush administration used the Northern Alliance–that is, proxy Afghan forces–to take Kabul in November 2001. It then set up its bases and prisons and established President Hamid Karzai as the “mayor of Kabul,” only to abandon the task of providing real security and beginning the genuine reconstruction of the country in order to invade Iraq. The rest of this particular horror story is, by now, reasonably well known. The country beyond booming Kabul remains impoverished and significantly in ruins; the population evidently ever more dissatisfied; the American and NATO air war ever more indiscriminate; and it is again the planet’s largest producer of opium poppies and, as such, supplier of heroin. Over five years after its “liberation” from the Taliban, Afghanistan is a failed state, home to a successful guerrilla war by one of the most primitively fundamentalist movements on the planet, and a thriving narco-kingdom. It is only likely to get worse. For the first time, the possibility that, like the Russians before them, the Americans (and their NATO allies) could actually suffer defeat in that rugged land seems imaginable.