Let's face when the US leaves bad things will happen. The issue is the US has to leave sometime. We don't have the the resources either in soldiers to be killed and injured, or money to spent to stay forever. So there is no reason to prolong what will happen, but it won't be pretty.

Posted by realist1 at 07/19/2007

In all probability, it will devolve into a Yugoslav-style ethnic free-for-all between the Sunni and Shia, with the Kurds getting crushed as hapless bystanders. Ultimately, the "winner" of Iraq will get there through genocide, mass murder, and jihadist pogroms - however, the outcome will be influenced by support from other nations (Iran, etc.) Ultimately, it will be a matter of survival, and who can beg the most support from terrorist groups, Islamic nations, etc.

Posted by Paralyse at 07/19/2007

The wording of the 4th option

"Bush's prediction that Iraq will be overtaken by Iran and Al-Qaeda comes true"

seems a little biased. How would the stats differ if it had just been:

"Iraq will be overtaken by Iran and Al-Qaeda"

Posted by timtw at 07/19/2007

option six:

cheney declares himself emperor of iraq and sends the iraqis to attack iran once again

Posted by frosty zoom at 07/20/2007

News ALERT!!! - - - King 'GW' is getting a colonoscopy done soon; his last one was in 2002. A lot of shit (excuse the pun!) has happened, since then. I hope this time the proctologist finds some part of his brain down there.

Posted by bsbuster at 07/20/2007

It is hard for me to say this but, honestly, I couldn't care less how Iraq turns out if we leave. Very few have mentioned the reason for all this mayhem and animus towards our troops as well as 9/11.

For years this government has propped up some of the most notorious dictators all over the world. In Iran - does anybody remember the Sha and the Savak? We supported him as we do the Saudis, the leader of which is profiled for his rank among the worst dictators in the world by Parade Magazine.

All this is to say that the current generation in the Middle East has grown up with oppression from the leaders of those entities supported by the US. It is no wonder they hate the US. Some of it, to be sure, is about so-called "values." If you spent your childhood and adolescence under a vicious dictator supported by the US, whom would you hate?

That's why I don't care. The people have risen the only way they know how - if you're beaten down the only way out is to beat back. This does not justify any of their methods - it just explains why.

Posted by niehbur at 07/20/2007

I'm beginning to grow tired of these kind of exercises where we try to imagine such a limited scenario. What does it mean to pull out all our troops? Do we pull them back into the bases? Back to the border? All the way out? We really need to work from a much larger perspective, ome that includes more options, more goals, more connections with reality. We need to get more brainpower involved, more transparency, more honesty so we can see what is really happening, we need to set up programs where American citizens can become more involved so the military does not have to bear so much of the burden. We need to also remove for-profit corporations from the picture as much as possible and engage the Iraqi people in our efforts more and more - it is their country! We need to make this a regional, and even global project - not just an American one. But to make this work we need new leadership. We need leadership that sees the power of people as the strongest force there is. There is virtually nothing that cannot be done when we all work together.

Posted by mikeschaefe at 07/21/2007

Posted by TIMTW 07/19/2007 @ 11:52pm

Because it is only his prediction, it is not based on reality,

Posted by crabwalk at 07/22/2007

3% think chimpy has a grasp of the situation.

Posted by crabwalk at 07/22/2007

There is something to be said for time..."healing all wounds." What happens immediately after the pullout and what happens further down the road. If there is utter chaos after we leave, how long will it continue? Sometime or other, things will sort themselves out...they always do.

Posted by Striver at 07/22/2007

A short term increase in hostilities, to draw ethnic security boundaries, followed by the eradication of AQiM by the Sunnis and Sadr's uniting of the Shia. After which will follow a long protracted peace process between former Baathists, Kurds and majority Shia. Just like the neocons said, the only difference is the occupier will not be there. This will happen AFTER we leave whether that occurs in 2008 or 2018.

Posted by samellison at 07/22/2007

http://seattle.indymedia.org/en/2007/07/260716.shtml Why Censure won't work author: Voter Jul 23, 2007 03:45

Censure is not enough to stop an executive branch gone wild with secret armies, torture, and preemptive war!

Censure is not enough to stop election voter fraud, rigged machines, and bribed members of Congress.

Posted by Rese at 07/23/2007

Problem is, I can't imagine the US exiting Iraq next year, even if there is a spot troop reduction (the best that can be hoped for at present). I can, however, foresee that the US will move into fighting insurgent forces in Pakistan and will be *increasing* border protection for both Afghanistan and Iraq, to forestall an escalation of factional fighting and minority genocide.

Posted by Dee Smith at 07/23/2007

The invasion of Iraq was a naked act of aggression, a first in recent American history. Before this alarming precedent was set nations and peoples around the world could depend on the fact that despite the military might of the USA they would not apply that might without justification. This rank injustice has become self perpetuating, underscored by the attitude that very self servingly and opportunistically concludes: forget that there are no justifications for being there, we are there and need to stay the course and finish the job. The 'job' can never be finished because when Saddam Hussein was removed; this created a vacuum of power, which ignited the ambitions of those who now have an opportunity to seize control of the wealth generated by the second largest pool of oil on Planet Earth. It is little emphasized in commentary about this conflict but there are power hungry individuals in Iraq who are happy to use the schism between the Shia and Sunni Arabs to concentrate power in their grubby paws; just as the large field of candidates to replace President Bush will quite literally sell their souls to attain his office. The key issue that needs to be understood is that the civil war that will determine who will succeed Saddam Hussein is inevitable, this will happen soon or late. It is as certain as the fact that elections to replace President Bush will occur next year, what Americans have the power to determine is whether Allied troops will continue to be trapped in the crossfire created by the means used to transfer power in Iraq from the beginning of human history, a period many millennia longer than the history of the American nation.

Posted by voiceofpeace at 07/23/2007

Obviously no one (except maybe the president) has a crystal ball, so it's useless to ponder what "will" happen, i.e. what Iraq "will" look like. It's evident that there may likely be such an enormous power vacuum that surrounding actors are drawn in, that Iraqis engage in a horrific bloodbath that puts pro-withdrawal types to shame, or even that, hey, the occupiers are gone, so let's rebuild. Who knows? Iraq in all knowable certainty won't be a shining light for democracy in the Mideast, but maybe that's my pessimism talking, not my clairvoyance.

Posted by antiPartisa at 07/25/2007

Imagine the Moslim's having the power and influence to change our culture to something we are offfended by. Women in veils and long garments to conceal themselves. Walking behind their husbands who control their wives who speak only when allowed and don't involve themselves in more than raising the children and working hard much of the time and everyone on their knees praying to Allah several times a day. Even small crimes dealt with severely with possibly the cutting off of fingers or even hands. Pretty unacceptable to most Americans I would bet. Well I think the Muslims believe our power and influence is going to effect their culture in many very radically ways. Respect for the belief in God will dwindle. Crime will increase dramatically. Divorce is commonplace, and entertainment is filled with sacriligious acts and promoting of decadence. Which is the Evil Empire and would you resent and revolt against the loss of your culture? We shouldn't just look at things from our perspective. Human nature is similar regardless of race or nationality. People believe their way of life is the right way and they will fight to maintain it. I believe we need to get out of where we don't belong in the first place. You can't make people become Democratic if they don't want to. They see our circumstance and way of life and reject it. I'm proud to be an American but I'll be the first to admit we have a lot of flaws and room for improvement. That we share in common with every place on Earth.

Posted by Liveandlearn at 07/25/2007

Joe Biden is the only one with the most dependable and proven plan.. www.planforiraq.com

Posted by gruntlife at 07/26/2007

Joe Biden is the only one with the most dependable and proven plan.. www.planforiraq.com Posted by GRUNTLIFE 07/26/2007 @ 1:30pm

Proven? Where & when? The Biden "plan" smacks of all the imperial arrogance, and much of the ignorance, of the W&Co. "plan." Tried & failed. The US had no strategic interest in invading Iraq, none in occupying Iraq. As was true in Vietnam -- dare one say it. So get out, before we're kicked out, again, tail between our legs. Let the Iraqis sort out their country. Without permanent US bases. Without the US Fortress "Embassy." Iraqis can't drink their oil. They have to sell it. If the US believes in free markets, as it claims, the US can always buy Iraqi oil on the open market. But of course, a free & open market is the last thing US (&UK) oil companies want. So in whose strategic interests is occupation or permanent bases? Certainly not the US people's. But then again, since when have we mattered?

Posted by sloper at 07/26/2007