Election Tea Leaves

It is certainly fair to search for signals in the results of off-year elections, and that goes double for off-year elections held at so volatile a moment as this. But not all elections are equal. Races for mayoralties and governorships tend to fit the "all politics are local" standard. But special elections for open Congressional seats, especially when they're held on the eve of votes on critical issues like healthcare reform and banking regulation, are exactly the right places to spot trends relating to Washington debates and 2010 Congressional contests.

So what did we learn from the off-year elections? New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, a good Democrat who was hurt badly by the economic downturn, which has rocked state governments across the country, lost by a relatively narrow margin to Republican Chris Christie. Corzine started the race with poll numbers so weak that Democrats spoke openly about replacing him as their nominee. It didn't help that the governor made his millions on Wall Street; as New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg's surprisingly narrow win illustrated, it's not a good year for wealthy, self-funded contenders. But Corzine battled his way back into contention, if not quite to victory, by highlighting support for healthcare reform and aligning with President Obama.

Virginia Democrat Creigh Deeds, who ran away from reform and his party's president, was beaten badly in a state where voters who provided Obama's winning margin in 2008--particularly young people--stayed home in 2009. Deeds was the wrong candidate for governor, and Democrats should learn the lesson that running to the right depresses turnout among the new voters who have powered the party's progress in recent years.

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