The Kosovo Dilemma

It was not intended to turn out like this. Kosovo's declaration of independence was supposed to end the uncertainty over its future, stabilize the region and get reconstruction going. The declaration brought jubilation in Pristina, celebratory cakes in the streets and a rare feel-good moment in the White House. But it has enraged the Serbs, given the Russians another bargaining chip against the West and worried quite a few European nations that have longstanding secessionist groups of their own.

As an issue of principle, Kosovo cuts both ways. On the one hand, until recently international diplomacy acknowledged that the Serbs had a legitimate claim to the province and therefore sought their agreement before changing its status. On the other, the Serbs undermined their case by the way they treated Kosovo's Albanian majority. After the mass expulsions of 1999 in particular--whether they were in retaliation for NATO bombing or part of a long-prepared plan is immaterial here--it was impossible to imagine the Albanians living under Serbian rule. But at what point do human rights violations trump state sovereignty and permit intervention? As conceived, the UN Charter essentially rules this out, and in 2004 Kofi Annan implicitly acknowledged that not even the desire to prevent genocide necessarily legitimizes it. A state's behavior may be determined by the Security Council to constitute a threat to "international peace." But precisely this sanction was lacking during the 1999 NATO bombing. In short, neither the Serbs nor the Western powers supporting Kosovo's independence can unproblematically appeal to the idea of law.

Kosovo's future is as hazy as its past. The plan of UN special envoy Martti Ahtisaari, which the Kosovars have pledged to uphold, foresees a highly conditional sovereignty for the new state, ruling out Kosovo's joining any other country and building in safeguards for minorities, decentralized local government and international oversight for some time to come. Keeping the pressure on Pristina to honor these commitments and to exercise moderation in the face of Serbian hostility will keep both the UN and the EU fully stretched.

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