Kenya's Crisis

Imagine that George W. Bush had himself sworn in on day three of the 2000 Florida recount in a White House ceremony so hastily thrown together they forgot to play the national anthem. Then imagine he declared an immediate ban on any further political rallies or live television broadcasts contesting his coronation. This scene should give Americans an approximation of what has happened in Kenya since December 29 and a sense of why the situation is so explosive. The roots of violence and chaos lie not in tribalism but in a bold power grab by a tight clique around the president.

Opposition leader Raila Odinga, candidate of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), clearly ran ahead in all major polls leading up to the election. According to figures published on an official government website, he won four of Kenya's eight regions outright and ran a dead heat in two others. President Mwai Kibaki led in only two: his stronghold Central Province and the Eastern Province. One by one, officials have broken down and recanted their certification of the election results, and the attorney general has promised an inquiry. The EU, France and now the United States have declared the vote rigged.

Hardliners in the government have apparently decided that if they can polarize the country enough, the opposition coalition around Odinga will splinter and Kenyans will be left with a bare-knuckled brawl between the Gikuyu and Luo tribes (with perhaps another fight brewing between Gikuyus and Kalenjins). They seem prepared to weather this tragic outcome, since they know that they have always prevailed in the past in this kind of ethnic one-on-one. In a further sign of intransigence, Kibaki has now named his Cabinet, in defiance of the expectation that ministers be sitting members of Parliament, which has not yet convened. The "losers," if the hardliners get their way, will be the Kenyan people, whose hopes for democracy and a rising standard of living now lie in tatters as many flee for their lives, abandoning homes and livelihoods. Brave Kenyans and their international allies, such as those working with the NGO Common Hope for Health in the western region of the country, are delivering aid across ethnic lines, at the risk of their lives and in hopes of calming tensions. But Kenya cannot move forward without a political solution that pushes the hardliners aside.

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