The GOP's Iraq Problem (Page 3)

In the wake of Petraeus's testimony, Harry Reid and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi have declared their willingness to water down the Democratic antiwar bills, or perhaps to support more modest legislation, in order to attract additional Republican support. But it's a risky strategy, since by doing so they're certain to infuriate hard-core antiwar Democrats on the Hill, with no guarantee that whatever emerges as a result can survive an almost certain presidential veto. In addition, the atmosphere on the Hill is so poisonous that compromise is exceedingly difficult. "The degree of partisanship is so high, the trust so low, that it's really hard for either side to move toward each other," says a staffer for a leading Democratic senator.

Meanwhile, the White House is doing everything it can to prevent even a modest compromise on the Hill. "The White House posture of complete resolve and grim determination is aimed at undermining deals on the Hill," says former aide Steve Simon. "Because there won't be any payoff. You're not going to get anything for it." A top staffer on the Democratic side agrees. In the end, he says, "a veto is a veto is a veto."

Lacking the courage and the political muscle to confront the White House directly, most Republicans are glumly resigned to fighting another election in which Iraq is the central concern. "In polls I've seen, including internal Republican polls, it is abundantly clear that Iraq is the issue," says Conway.

Many Republicans, desperate to proclaim a light at the end of the tunnel, will point to the end of the surge as a harbinger of further withdrawals to come. But, pollsters say, while the end of the surge may briefly boost Republican hopes and trigger a temporary uptick in the polls, it isn't likely to last long when measured against the toll of continuing US casualties, hundreds of billions of dollars spent on the occupation, and Iraq's chaotic ethnic and sectarian civil war. "If in the end, the [impact] of the Petraeus-Crocker report is, We're here indefinitely and we don't know how long it's going to take, that's very bad news for Republicans," says Tony Fabrizio, a leading GOP pollster.

Meanwhile, GOP worry continues to grow. "I'll tell you where senators and House members are seeing the impact of Iraq: in fundraising," says Conway. "The committees, including the NRCC [National Republican Campaign Committee], the NRSC [National Republican Senatorial Committee] and the RNC [Republican National Committee], are having a devil of a time raising funds." At last report, the Democrats had $20.4 million in cash for Senate races and Republicans just $5.8 million. Similar disparities prevail for House fundraising and among presidential candidates.

If, as expected, Congressional Republicans stay tethered to the White House, a real change could occur if and when one of the top-tier GOP presidential candidates makes a definitive break with Bush on Iraq, GOP pollsters say. "The 'Sister Souljah moment' for Republican presidential candidates will be on Iraq," predicts Conway. According to Fabrizio, at least one or two of the leading GOP contenders may read the post-Petraeus/Crocker tea leaves and break with the White House. "Don't discount the presidential side of the equation," says Fabrizio, who says he has heard that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney could be the first to go. "I wouldn't underestimate the impact on Capitol Hill if one of the major candidates breaks," he says. So far, however, all of the major Republican candidates remain vociferous supporters of the President's Iraq policy.

Meanwhile, the Democrats intend to keep the pressure on, even if they can't force Bush to bring the troops home. Beginning in mid-September and continuing into October, the House and Senate will have to deal with defense appropriation and defense authorization bills, along with a White House request for as much as $200 billion to fund the war and the continuing surge. If the Democrats are unable to use those bills to impose a timetable, their fallback strategy may be to vote only enough money for forty-five or sixty days. That would compel Republicans in Congress to defend Bush's war over and over again into 2008. Among other measures, Senator Jim Webb is backing a bill to impose longer home-leave and readiness requirements, making it harder to find US forces to send to Iraq. In July Webb's plan won fifty-six votes, seven of them Republican, and might get enough this time to overcome a GOP filibuster--only to face a presidential veto. "We'll try to keep 'em on a very short leash," says a top Democratic staffer in the House.

"It's clear that the President's strategy is to keep the war going until he leaves office and then blame the Democrats for losing the war," says a House staffer with close ties to the antiwar caucus. "We've got to frame the debate. Politically, we can't stop Bush as long as he's in the White House. But he has to be held accountable. We're not going to do anything that gives the Republicans any cover, and we'll do what we can to clarify the differences. The next step is a unified, strategic position on our part to make sure that the President gets the blame for the fiasco in Iraq."

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