The best case for growing moderation comes from surveys like the one last September of 600 Cubans and Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, conducted by Bendixen & Associates for the New Democrat Network. The poll found, for example, that 77 percent of Cuban-Americans in South Florida prefer a transition to democracy that is "gradual without violence" as opposed to 20 percent who support "fast and violent" change. Some 49 percent favor free travel to Cuba, while 45 percent oppose it.

That latter attitude stands in contradiction to the policy of the Bush Administration, which in response to howls from the hard-liners that Bush was not doing enough about Cuba clamped down on travel to the island just before the 2004 election. Most egregious of all, the new rules included draconian limits on travel by Cuban-Americans to one trip every three years with no humanitarian exceptions. The previous policy, in force during Clinton's presidency and most of Bush's first term, allowed a yearly visit and humanitarian exceptions. Bush's travel policy thus is more hard-line than the views of the Cuban community itself, and no one is hurt more than Cubans in the United States with close relatives on the island.

What explains the persistence of such a pernicious and increasingly unpopular policy? A Florida International University survey of a random sample of 1,000 Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade County released April 2 provides the answer. It shows, among other things, just how sharp the divisions are between the old guard, on one hand, and the new arrivals and the second generation, on the other.

The starkest differences are on the crucial issue of the travel ban, arguably the linchpin of the embargo. In the poll, free travel to Cuba is favored by a majority of the Miami Cuban-American population (55 percent), by a larger majority of the second generation (57 percent) and by an overwhelming proportion of those who have arrived from Cuba since 1995 (80 percent). In contrast, only 23 percent of those who arrived between 1959 and 1965 favor free travel.

Generational change and continuing immigration point toward a future of increasing moderation. But the power equation at the moment is another matter.

In the Cuban-American community today, the históricos hold nearly all the positions of power and influence, from political offices to university presidencies to partnerships in major law firms. They own major businesses; control or influence a great deal of the local media, including radio, TV and newspapers; and sit on key civic boards. They are US citizens, they register and they vote. They are responsible for nearly all the community's campaign contributions. It is their views that count. They are now a demographic minority--but a political majority. Note, for example, these data from the March survey:

Opinion on allowing unrestricted travel to Cuba, by percent:
            Favor  Oppose
Total          55.2  44.8
Registered to vote     42.3  57.7
Not registered to vote   73.9  26.1

The históricos, like the generation who founded the Cuban Revolution, may be losing the long war against biology. For now, though, they--and the rightward-thinking among their children--have been winning the recent battles for power and policy, succeeding not only in preventing a relaxation of the embargo but in making US Cuba policy much harsher than it would otherwise have been, at no small cost to a large sector of their own people.

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