Even as we move closer to a post-Castro Cuba, there has been no easing of the Bush Administration's hardline policy. That Washington's instincts are confrontational became clear in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, when Cuba expressed solidarity with the American people, called for dialogue and offered to sign bilateral agreements for joint efforts against terrorism. The Bush Administration rebuffed even those overtures and instead began calling for Castro's downfall. By 2003 this had led to the formation of the Commission for Assistance to a Free Cuba, and by May 2004 to a 500-page action plan to bring an end to the Castro regime. Making it sound as though the regime was on the verge of collapse, economy and all, and that just a few more nudges would do it, the plan included measures to (1) tightly limit the travel of Americans to Cuba, including some painful new restrictions on the travel of Cuban-Americans; (2) increase Radio and TV Martí broadcasting; and (3) provide increased assistance to dissidents and other representatives of civil society in Cuba.

Also, the massive plan almost seemed to envisage a US occupation of Cuba so that we could show Cubans how to reorganize their country and make their trains run on time. In keeping with that, in July 2005 a transition coordinator was appointed, à la Paul Bremer in Iraq! In the latter case, at least we waited until we had occupied the country.

But with or without a transition coordinator, the plan didn't work--and it is difficult to understand why the Bush team thought it would. Increased radio and TV broadcasting, to the extent that it proved feasible, had virtually no impact on Cuban public opinion. Despite US restrictions on the travel of Americans, revenues from tourism actually increased. And as for aid to the dissidents, that had no effect either. Many dissidents even openly expressed their disagreement with the new US initiative. One, Oscar Espinosa Chepe, summed up their reaction: "We're not in agreement with any foreign government giving opinions as to what we Cubans must do."

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