"Préval took leadership this week," said Robert Maguire, a longtime Haiti observer and professor at Trinity University, shortly after the election. "He spoke clearly and directly to the people and asked them not to back off but to protect their interest, and people listened. It was quite a change of pattern from what we've seen in Haitian leadership previously." Jocelyn McCalla of the New York-based National Coalition for Haitian Rights, who has been highly critical of the Aristide government, added, "It demonstrates an understanding that for Haiti to move forward, it is going to need peace, calm and stability and a lot of effort and compromise from people with various backgrounds and ideologies to work together."

But trust is in as short a supply as dollars in this bankrupt country, where only 10 percent of the $1.2 billion of development aid pledged by the international community in 2004 has been delivered. These elections were Haiti's most expensive--$75 million--and run by an incompetent Provisional Electoral Council (CEP). The nine-member board was sanctioned by an equally incompetent interim government that had been strong-armed into place by the international community, then left on its own. Many people wonder how, if the CEP can't get the little things right, like the spelling of candidates' names on its website or math calculations that show percentages going down when votes go up, it could possibly have the capacity to oversee any vote at all.

But even those who experienced the chaos of the election firsthand still believe the electoral process can work. César Joynel oversaw the voting at twenty-three stations (which could accommodate 400 voters each); he worked more than forty-two hours straight for a mere $50 to insure a change in government. Although he lost his voice and went without eating or sleeping, his determination to be part of the electoral process never wavered. "My vote is the only thing I have," the 34-year-old unemployed father said. "Take this away from me, and I've got nothing."

Ironically, it was the intervention of the UN peacekeeping force that saved Joynel from being mobbed by poll workers, who thought he, rather than the electoral council, was responsible for their paychecks when the last of the ballots in his station were counted. Joynel is no fan of the blue helmets--he lives in Cité Soleil, the seaside slum that had become such a hotbed of gang warfare that even the peacekeepers were unable to bring stability. Over the past two years 1,500 have died, and Haitians have been gripped by a kidnapping craze that at its height claimed more than ten victims a day. The UN mandate in Haiti was renewed in mid-February for another six months; Préval has said that the international force should stay as long as it is needed, which, given the wretched state of Haiti's security force and the country's corrupt judicial system, could be years.

The soft-spoken president-elect, who according to friends is better known for his abundance of good will than his long-range planning, is counting on massive international aid to jump-start the country's economy, which has been declining steadily for years. He knows it will take decades to improve conditions in this poorest country in the hemisphere, where 80 percent of the population lives in dire poverty. While Préval may not convince his fiercest rivals, Charles Henri Baker and Leslie Manigat--whose combined votes were less than half of Préval's--to work with him, he has won over some members of the business community, who helped bankroll his campaign. He also has the support of other presidential candidates, who recognize his indisputable popularity. "A more difficult question," asked University of Virginia Professor Robert Fatton, "is what is he going to do with the armed Aristide supporters who want to bring Aristide back?"

Préval has said publicly that as a private citizen, Aristide is welcome to return, but it seems counterintuitive for Préval to encourage the move if he's trying to create a new image as an independent leader. Just one day after the election, acting US chargé d'affaires to Haiti Timothy Carney said, "Aristide is on his way to becoming as irrelevant to Haiti as Jean-Claude [Duvalier], and with no future. Aristide is now demonstrated to be a man of the past." That may be wishful thinking, but it also provides an insight into the direction the United States would like the new government to take.

Préval, who according to James Dobbins, President Clinton's special envoy to Haiti, was not the GOP Administration's first choice in these elections, is aware of the delicate line he's walking with the Americans, whose meddling in Haitian affairs has been heavily criticized as destabilizing the country's democratic process. Despite reinstating Aristide with the support of 20,000 troops in 1994, the United States not only undermined his presidency publicly by imposing an international embargo a few years later but is generally thought to have actively worked behind the scenes to help depose him. Préval recognizes the potential for the international tide to turn against him, and he has to juggle that, just as he has to strike a balance with the armed gangs that support him. How he handles such issues will ultimately define his second term, which is scheduled to begin March 29.

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