A Warning Bell

The President was already floundering in deep water, so the latest economic news may feel like another huge stone has been tied to his ankle. In the final quarter of 2005 the national economy abruptly capsized. The gross domestic product grew by only 1.1 percent, down from 4.1 percent during the previous three months. George W. Bush's happy talk about a "strong economy" has been exposed as fraudulent. For nervous Republicans, the portents for the 2006 elections are ugly.

This sudden swoon may represent the long-feared moment when debt-soaked consumers finally tap out, no longer able to borrow or buy enough to keep the economy going. If so, that development is truly ominous, especially for millions of struggling families. We can't know for several months. Stock-market cheerleaders dismiss the slowdown as a quirk and predict the economy will bounce right back. Other forecasters are not so sanguine. At a minimum they expect slower growth to linger during the next six months--when voters are making up their minds.

Everything, it seems, is declining except for household debt and the trade deficit. The convergence of bad indicators suggests that Bush's right-wing economic agenda may finally have come back to bite him. Four years ago he defended his tax cuts as much-needed stimulus for the economy--never mind that the money went overwhelmingly to the top wealth holders and businesses.

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