He'll Be Back--or Will He?

The three ballot measures that Schwarzenegger has endorsed all along are lagging in the polls. That bodes ill for Arnold's Year of Reform, since California propositions typically lose strength toward election day. The parental-notification initiative is a close call, though, and union officials express growing worry that with balloting by mail already under way, and unions having been slow to educate their members about the consequences of Arnold's antiunion initiative, "paycheck protection" might be headed for passage.

"One of two things is going to happen," says Republican consultant Hoffenblum. "First scenario is this election degenerates into a fight between both party bases, a contest over who can turn out the most hard-core supporters." With the Democrats' sizable edge in party affiliation, that scenario would be grim for Schwarzenegger. "Second scenario is that Arnold is able to motivate some soft Democrats and independents by persuading them that redistricting and taking power away from the legislature are important issues." But that, says Hoffenblum, will be "very, very difficult" for the governor to pull off.

You'd think this sort of Republican gloominess would brighten the hearts of California Democrats. And you'd be right. But only in the short run. A recall effort, launched in October, is unlikely to get anywhere. And while the smart money figures on Schwarzenegger getting whipped in his own special election next month, most observers on both sides--at least in private--concede he's still the odds-on favorite for re-election a year from now.

The two declared Democratic candidates, State Controller Steve Westly and State Treasurer Phil Angelides, have little name recognition in populous Southern California. Westly is a wealthy Silicon Valley entrepreneur, and Angelides is a wealthy Northern California developer. Further complicating matters, the centrist Westly, a former eBay executive, is seen by many liberals as being too pro-business; Angelides's Bay Area liberalism might get in the way of attracting swing voters.

Little surprise, then, that so far Schwarzenegger's strongest Democratic critic has been his Hollywood compadre Warren Beatty. Sounding a tad like his movie character Jay Bulworth, Beatty has in the past few months verbally trounced Arnold in university and union venues, arguing that the governor "misled" Californians with his initial moderate pitch.

Beatty, whose political activism dates back to the 1960s, is an unlikely long shot to actually run against Schwarzenegger. But he told me he's not completely ruling it out. "Being as meticulously truthful as possible," Beatty said, "I'm saying I don't want to run for governor. But I do believe in public service, in giving back. We have two good men out there who have announced their intention to run against Arnold. But I don't close the door."

Actor-director Rob Reiner has also recently been refloated as a possible Democratic challenger. But Beatty and Reiner both have to be aware that if Arnold rose to power by celebrity, it is that same celebrity that is also doing him in. "He came in with a lot of theater," Beatty told me. "But theater isn't enough."

Schwarzenegger's action-hero promises to be an un-politician were accepted by voters who believed that only someone with superhuman status could come though. Those promises raised initial voter expectations to Himalayan heights. The ensuing disappointment and disenchantment with him has fallen into equally deep crevasses.

Even if Arnold survives next month's balloting and goes on to win next year's re-election, it's not uncharitable to say that he has nevertheless already lost. If he wins another term, it will be not as an extraordinary vehicle of hope and reform but rather as an oil-burning jalopy of politics-as-usual. It will be re-election not of the beloved onscreen Terminator but of the human Arnold, one more mediocre Republican governor beholden to powerful and partisan special interests.

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