Mfume's Senate race could turn into an important test of how well the emerging antiwar message plays with voters. The front-runner for the Democratic nomination in Maryland is Representative Benjamin Cardin, who voted against the 2002 resolution authorizing Bush to attack Iraq--but voted in May to block Woolsey's amendment seeking a plan for withdrawal. Cardin, like Clinton and most Democratic leaders, says a timeline would put US troops in danger. Mfume counters that the Iraq fight is "a war without justification and apparently without end," and argues bluntly that "it's time to get out."

No matter what happens in 2006, the debate over Iraq is likely to dominate the fast-starting 2008 Democratic presidential race. The jockeying for the nomination has already begun, with potential Democratic candidates visiting the Iowa and New Hampshire precincts that will play a definitive role in identifying the party's next nominee--and its direction. Even if an outspoken antiwar candidate does not prevail in those first contests, the early and persistent presence of a genuine foe of the Bush Administration's approach to national security issues could prod not just the party but all the machinery of modern American politics--the media, the fundraising establishment and Congress itself--to get more serious about the questions of when and how the United States should pull itself out of the quagmire in Iraq.

Hart, who pondered making an antiwar run for the presidency in 2004 but disavows interest in doing so in 2008, says that the failure of party leaders to advance a logical exit strategy has created an opening for an antiwar presidential candidate--"or, at the least, someone who says, I may or may not be running for President but I am definitely running for the leadership of my party on the most critical issue of the day." Hart argues that "if someone were to step up right now with a plan to get out of Iraq that makes sense, and heads to Iowa and New Hampshire with that message, they would be overwhelmed with support."

The notion of being "overwhelmed with support" ought to be enough incentive for any politician with presidential aspirations. But there has been no rush to take up the antiwar mantle. Feingold, who will make a foray into New Hampshire in October, is still a long way from deciding whether to run. Retired Gen. Wesley Clark is busy retracing his trail through the early caucus and primary states he visited during his not-quite-ready-for-prime-time 2004 campaign, decrying "the national security mess that we're in with Iraq and the so-called war on terror," but he remains as vague as ever on when and how to withdraw. A more focused message on the war, closely combined with his "two Americas" theme of concern for the poor and disenfranchised, could yet mark the 2004 vice presidential nominee, John Edwards, as the clear alternative to probable front-runner Hillary Clinton. But although his wife, Elizabeth, penned a poignant letter endorsing the vigils for Cindy Sheehan, the grinning North Carolinian has yet to stake out a strong position on Iraq. "We've got to have someone," says Hayden, "who is willing to say, 'Look, I want the Democratic Party to be an antiwar party. I want the Democratic Party to be a serious opposition party, and I am willing to take on the leadership now in order to assure that we have the right message in 2008.'"

The "right message" won't simply be a purely antiwar one. After eight years of Bush, there must also be a call for national renewal, beginning with restoration of the federal government as a functional force for good. But as the 2002 and 2004 elections demonstrated, domestic policy messages can be all too easily drowned out when the Republicans start banging war drums. Democrats will have to respond by showing how getting US troops out of Iraq fits into a broader agenda that will make Americans more secure, and maybe even well liked, in a turbulent world. Link that message to a realistic discussion of what the price tag of an open-ended "war on terror" does to prospects for addressing domestic problems--not just in New Orleans but everywhere in the country--and Democrats could well produce an antiwar message powerful enough to renew a party that has been on the ropes for the better part of a decade.

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