Bolivia's Battle of Wills (Page 2)

The recently departed Mesa inherited his job in October 2003, the last time the issue of natural gas exploded. In that conflict his predecessor, then-president Gonzalo "Goni" Sánchez de Lozada, ordered troops to open fire on demonstrators. At least sixty-seven people were killed, and in the outrage that followed, Goni fled to the United States.

Back at the miners' blockade, three weeks before Mesa's resignation, nine trucks are sitting before a string of stones laid across the highway. In the center of this is a homemade bomb of dynamite, packed in a bottle full of pebbles. A few of the stranded drivers play soccer next to their vehicles.

"With the blockades we all lose out," says Fernando Chavez, an Aymaran shepherd from the nearby village of Achica Arriba, where the miners have bivouacked. "The dynamite scares the children," he says, one eye on his flock of fifty sheep. "President Mesa should talk to all sectors."

In a truck called Rey de Reyes ("King of Kings") and painted with evangelical inscriptions sits Johny Miranda. He had dropped off a load of soybeans in Peru and was headed home to Cochabamba when he hit this barrier last night. If he tries to run the blockade, he says, the miners will slash his tires and destroy his truck. He doesn't support such tactics, but he wants the people to get more of the revenue from natural gas.

"Instead of blockades they should go right for the power, attack the gas fields and the Parliament," says Miranda. Within hours that's exactly what happens.

Crucial in all of this is the character of Evo Morales and his party, the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS). Morales is of mixed Aymaran and Quechuan descent and got his start as a coca farmer, or cocalero. He lost the last presidential election, in 2002, by only one percentage point. MAS is now the second-largest group in Parliament. But Morales is not the driving force behind Bolivia's social movements.

Most grassroots organizations in Bolivia are far more radical than the social democratic MAS. Morales originally called for a 50 percent royalty on foreign oil companies, while most of the movement wants 100 percent nationalization. This has caused Bolivian sociologist Carlos Crespo to describe Morales as "Lula-ized," and to call MAS "hierarchical" and just "a presidential vehicle." Antonio Peredo, a senior MAS senator, has a different critique of his party: "If we took power now we wouldn't last ten weeks. We're not ready." But neither is anyone else on the left, and as Alex Contreras, a radical Bolivian journalist, puts it, "MAS is the only organization capable of uniting enough factions to win elections. They're not corrupt and they're not fanatics. They're the only real option."

To find out what Morales thinks of the unfolding turmoil I track him down at the party offices in Cochabamba. Morales shows up late for the interview, a crowd of campesino activists, cooperative miners and two television crews in tow. He politely locks them out of his office and sits for the interview at a simple desk. Behind him hangs a wiphala, the square, rainbow-checked flag of indigenous self-determination. On other walls are posters bearing pictures of Che Guevara and Evo Morales himself.

How does MAS plan to win elections to be held before the end of this year? "We are the primary political force in the country. If there had been a runoff in 2002 we would have won," says Morales, as if victory had been almost assured. Not all agree with this assessment--many suspect that the traditional rightist parties would have united to smash MAS in a runoff.

When I press Morales on various issues--such as how to expand his base and reach out to Aymaran organizations that are now openly hostile to MAS, which is seen as heavily Quechuan--Morales is surprisingly reticent. He appears tired and distracted. What would the party do once in power? Morales says they would abolish a few ministries and create a few new ones that would better serve the poor. How will MAS woo the middle classes? "Who knows about the middle class, they are fickle," says Morales with an evasive grin. "Mesa is damaging the middle class. He can't walk in the streets now." Other than pointing out Mesa's faults, Morales seems to have no real plan for winning and using state power.

As for the famous Aymaran leader Felipe Quispe, who is one of Morales's main rivals, "sometimes we get along, sometimes we don't," says Morales. What are the biggest challenges MAS faces? "Political meddling from the United States." When I ask him about the difference between his call for 50 percent royalties and the increasingly popular demand for nationalization, he offers a contorted attempt to reconcile the two. "If we renegotiate all of these illegal contracts, and insure local community consultation on the new contracts, that is essentially nationalization."

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