Mideast Mirage?

Four and a half years after the outbreak of the second intifada, Israel and the Palestinian Authority have signed a cease-fire agreement in Sharm el Sheik, and the peace process appears to be reviving. The question, as ever, is whether the process will bring peace. Considering the fate of the "road map," which disintegrated three months after being unveiled with great ceremony in June 2003, it's hard not to feel a weary sense of déjà vu. In the days following the Sharm el Sheik summit, continued flare-ups on both sides underscored the fragility of the cease-fire.

And yet, the dynamic has changed considerably since 2003. At that time Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon made no secret of his opposition to the road map. It was precisely to silence the growing anti-occupation clamor and kill the road map--to put it "in formaldehyde," as a top adviser recently admitted--that Sharon made the fateful decision to remove all settlers from the Gaza Strip. He needs a cease-fire to avoid the impression that Israel is leaving under fire, as it did in southern Lebanon in 2000.

The Palestinians, for their part, are exhausted after four and a half years of living under siege. Mahmoud Abbas, the newly elected Palestinian Authority president after the death of Arafat, has stated unequivocally that the armed intifada has only damaged the liberation struggle. Though deeply mistrustful of Israeli intentions, Palestinians made clear in the January vote that they are willing to give Abbas's path of negotiation a chance. Abbas is wagering that a cessation of Palestinian violence will compel Israel to re-enter serious negotiations toward a two-state solution to the conflict.

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