The defeat of John Kerry, combined with the Republican advances in the House and Senate, has unleashed waves of dismay and perplexity within liberal and progressive circles. What happened? Why did so many voters embrace a President whose Iraq policy was paved with lies and deceptions, who has shown contempt for science, the rule of law and many of the principles of the Enlightenment, and whose economic policies favor the rich at the expense of the vast majority of Americans? What lessons do we draw from Kerry's failure to win over the electorate in spite of the Bush Administration's conspicuous failures? Are the Democrats crippled, or merely wounded, and is the party really out of touch with "mainstream" values? Finally, what should the priorities of the progressive movement be in this era of Republican dominance, and what is the best formula for future electoral success? The Nation asked some of the country's leading political activists and intellectuals for their thoughts on one or more of these questions. Their brief essays follow.   --The Editors

STEVE COBBLE &
JOE VELASQUEZ

IT HAS FREQUENTLY BEEN POINTED OUT that John Kerry would be President if fewer than 70,000 Ohioans had switched their votes. What hasn't been noticed is that a similar number holds for the "Cactus Corner"--if 64,000 voters had switched their votes in three Southwestern states, Kerry would have won another nineteen electoral votes, enough to win the White House.

Kerry trailed George W. Bush by only about 6,000 votes in New Mexico, by only 21,500 in Nevada and by fewer than 100,000 in Colorado (a big state in the campaign, as Democrats gained in the presidential race, won a historic Senate seat with Ken Salazar, won back a House seat and gained state legislative seats). These statistics bolster a point we made in The Nation almost a year ago, in "Blue States, Latino Voters" [January 5]--that the "path to the White House runs through the Latino Southwest, not the former Confederacy."

Our point is not that Ohio and Florida were the wrong targets in 2004. We agreed with those targets. It's that the future for Democrats is brighter in the Southwest than in those deep red states below the Mason-Dixon line.

Consider this: Besides Florida, the closest former Confederate states showed Bush winning by nine percentage points (Virginia, Arkansas). On the other hand, of the six states which W. won by five points or less, two of them were in the Midwest (Iowa, Ohio), one is Florida and three were in the Southwest (New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado).

What do these Southwestern states have in common? A large and growing Latino constituency (a rising demographic that should soon also have an impact in two other red states, Florida and Arizona), plus a strong overall environmental sensibility that is usually overlooked by Democrats and steamrolled by Republicans.

The 2004 exit polls seem to show that Bush made gains with Latinos. However, based on an exit poll specifically targeting Latino voters by the Willie C. Velasquez Institute, plus our own analysis, we believe that the 44 percent Bush supposedly won from Latinos is too high. While W. probably did make some smaller gains, we believe the national split was still closer to 3-to-2 in favor of Kerry, especially in the Southwestern battleground states.

And even if the exit polls are right, that still means that Kerry won a solid victory among Hispanics, despite losing nationally. We would also point out that the smart strategy for the future remains the same--to target the growing Latino vote for issue work, organizing, voter registration and mobilization.

What issues are key? We'd start with the brazen voter suppression tactics the GOP openly employed this election. We should fight back fiercely against these immoral and un-American tactics, and "brand" the Republicans as the party that tries hard to keep African-Americans and Latinos from exercising their right to vote.

Plus, Hispanics care more than most Americans about public education. They want decent healthcare, good jobs and living wages. They are open to labor unions, and less supportive of the Iraq war than whites are. Not surprisingly, they care about issues concerning Latin America, trade, immigration, travel to Cuba. And since Latinos in the United States are very urban, they care about crime and police issues and the lack of affordable housing.

The next Democratic Party leader, and progressive activists, should focus intensely on building stronger connections with Latinos. The heavily Hispanic states of the Southwest, the "Cactus Corner," could be part of a winning strategy in 2008.

Joe Velasquez is a founder of a new website, www.HispanicAction.com, a former union official and a deputy political director in the Clinton White House. Steve Cobble grew up in New Mexico politics, was political director for the National Rainbow Coalition and served as strategist for the Kucinich presidential campaign.

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