Crude Awakening (Page 5)

Paul Roberts, a regular contributor to Harper's Magazine, combines the scientific analysis of Goodstein with the political acumen of Yeomans and Shah to provide a comprehensive and frightening assessment of our current energy dilemma. Once again, we are treated to an explanation of the depletion curve devised by King Hubbert and a review of the evidence for an imminent peak in production. But Roberts goes beyond this to examine the social, economic and environmental consequences of our dependency on petroleum and to identify the powerful obstacles to radical change. Petroleum has proved to be such a cheap and versatile source of energy that we have constructed our entire civilization around its unrestrained consumption, he argues; hence, we perceive few incentives for abandoning oil in favor of more costly and inconvenient fuels. Practical alternatives do exist, but we will not embrace them so long as the existing political-economic system retains its deep-seated addiction to cheap oil.

More than the other authors, Roberts examines the relative utility of alternative energy paths, ranging from natural gas and hydrogen to the renewables like wind and solar. None of these paths, he argues, currently offer a blanket, truly affordable substitute for petroleum. Hydrogen may, in time, provide such an option, but not without a lot more research, experimentation and investment. In the meantime, we need to adopt a "bridging" strategy based on the increased use of natural gas, enhanced conservation and fuel efficiency, greater reliance on wind and solar power, and the gradual introduction of hydrogen-powered devices. But, like the other authors, Roberts worries that time is running out. "Each year that we fail to commit to serious energy research and development or fail to begin slowing the growth of energy demand through fuel efficiency...is another year in which our already unstable energy economy moves so much closer to the point of no return."

Of all these authors, Richard Heinberg is the most pessimistic about our capacity to take the necessary steps in time. A professor at the New College of California in Santa Rosa, he argues that the rapid development and exploitation of petroleum has created a bubble economy that is sure to burst once the moment of peak production has passed--a moment, he believes, that is soon upon us. "Industrial societies have been flourishing for roughly 150 years now, using fossil energy resources to build far-flung trade empires, to fuel the invention of spectacular new technologies, and to fund a way of life that is opulent and fast-paced. It is as if part of the human race has been given a sudden windfall of wealth and decided to spend that wealth by throwing an extravagant party." But all too soon, "the party itself will be a fading memory--not because anyone decided to heed the voice of moderation, but because the wine and food are gone and the harsh light of morning has come."

Unlike Roberts, Heinberg has little faith that the development of hydrogen, natural gas and other "bridging" technologies can spare us from a painful economic contraction. All these approaches, he suggests, depend on the perpetuation of a high-cost, energy-intensive industrial leviathan that will not survive the disappearance of cheap oil. What is needed, he insists, is not so much technological innovation as profound life-style adjustments, obliging us to use less energy, consume fewer industrial goods, grow more of our own food and rely on locally based, renewable energy sources. This will not be an ongoing "party" of the sort that most Americans now enjoy, but it will provide some attractions of its own--particularly in terms of greater community sharing and participation.

Together, these five books make a persuasive argument that the era of cheap and abundant petroleum is fast drawing to a close and that we are entering a new period of growing scarcity, high prices and economic trauma. They also demonstrate, with unshakable logic, that the longer we put off the transition to a post-petroleum energy system, the worse off we'll be. They should be required reading for all who care about the future of this country and the planet as a whole.

Unfortunately, it does not appear that our leaders are prepared to accept this new reality. Rather, they prefer to shield themselves--and the rest of us--from the wrenching adjustments that will inevitably be required. For some officials, of course, these adjustments will prove detrimental to the profit intake of their friends and associates in the oil business, and so they eschew any changes in the status quo; others are simply worried about the political risks of speaking the truth to the American public, and so advocate only the most timid sorts of initiatives. (At the risk of oversimplification, one can say that the Bush camp falls into the first category, the Kerry camp into the second.) But inaction will only bring us closer to catastrophe, and timid steps will not immunize us from the dangers ahead. As these books make so painfully clear, we must liberate ourselves from our addiction to cheap petroleum and begin the transition to a sane and sustainable alternative.

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