Why do we require macho magic from our leaders? The answer is primal, and therefore complex. But human nature is never the whole story when it comes to political behavior. To decipher the current leadership style, look to the conditions of American life.

In 1965 Richard Hofstadter wrote a landmark book called The Paranoid Style in American Politics. Hofstadter noticed that, in the prosperous 1960s, class interests were giving way to an emphasis on group status. The breakup of the old racial and ethnic order intensified this trend by pitting every group against all the rest--and then came the demands of women and gays. These days, status conflicts are driven less by economic fears than by threats to the masculine mystique.

Most Americans have felt the pinch of stagnant or declining wages, but white men aren't doing especially badly. Only 18 percent of them earn less than $30,000; a third make $75,000 or more. If white guys lean Republican, material deprivation isn't the main reason. Their feeling of persecution derives from an entirely symbolic insult. The prestige of white macho has definitely taken a hit, and the resulting sense of loss moves many issues. Take gun control. Despite the precipitate drop in crime, white men cling ever more tightly to their guns, and the right to lock and load is a major link between pistol-packing papas and the Republican Party. Assume that most of these guys cherish their weapons for other than practical reasons, and you can see the pull of the phallic on American politics.

Now factor in 9/11, with its gross insult to America's twin stiffies (soon to be replaced by an even taller "Power Tower," as the New York Post has dubbed it). Real as the danger of terrorism is, it has coincided with the so-called crisis of masculinity to produce a powerful perception that we need a strongman--rather than a strong person--in order to survive. The result is a politics of cartoon virility. But a symbol that doesn't meet actual needs soon seems like an empty artifice. That's what Dean is betting on. He's out to embody a masculinity that feels substantial rather than ceremonial. In other words, he's trying to be butch but not macho.

What is progressive masculinity? It has something to do with what the linguist George Lakoff calls "nurturant parenting." All the great liberal Presidents of the past century were nurturers (their weakness for war notwithstanding). But conservative leaders follow another model; Lakoff calls it "the strict father." The appeal of this harsh, punitive style is directly related to anxiety. People kept in a state of constant stress will sacrifice their best instincts and even their real interests for the illusion of safety--and sheer sexiness--that a bad dad can provide. That's why the Republicans put such energy into arousing anxiety and displacing it onto Democrats. If Dean is to beat the odds, he will have to counter this strategy in every move he makes.

It won't be easy. It doesn't take much to foment fear in white boys. What's more, as Al Sharpton reminds us, black voters aren't impressed by attitude that doesn't come with a progressive program. Then there's the chance that conquest and a patchwork "recovery" will prop up the illusion that things are getting better. This will be the mother of all long shots for the Democrats. Butching up is no guarantee of victory. Still, for better or worse, it's a necessary step.

We may resent the fact that Americans regard the penis and its symbolic projections as synonymous with strength. But psychic reality cannot be denied. At this moment, most voters are looking for a leader who reassures them with a manly presentation. The trick is to be a man women admire, blacks find credible and white guys bond with. It's a hard job, but someone's got to do it or Bush will ride the backlash to the White House--with a real mandate this time.

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