WMD: Who Knew What?

"Intelligence is an art, not a science," says Deputy Defense Secretary Wolfowitz. Secretary of State Powell observes, "There are always debates about intelligence subjects. You get information in, and there are debates." Gen. Richard Myers, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, informs us, "Intelligence doesn't necessarily mean something is true, it's just, it's intelligence, you know, it's your best estimate of the situation."

All these statements were uttered as senior government officials responded to questions about the MIA WMDs in Iraq. Such remarks are not inaccurate or misleading, because the intelligence business does often deal with fuzziness and frequently relies on informed guesswork. But they blatantly contradict what the Bush Administration was telling the American people before the war. Most (in)famously, George W. Bush, on March 17--two days before he began the war--declared, "Intelligence gathered by this and other governments leaves no doubt that the Iraq regime continues to possess and conceal some of the most lethal weapons ever devised." No doubt--his choice of words. These days his senior aides are saying, Well, you never know.

Defending themselves from the accusation that they misled the nation into war, these Bush officials now overstate the case in the opposite direction, for there can be firm intelligence (think photos of Soviet missiles in Cuba). But their unintentional confessions (that their prewar assertions about WMDs were unjustifiably unambiguous) provide further reason for Congressional investigation. There are two fundamental questions that deserve examination. First, what was the intelligence on WMDs in Iraq and the supposed Al Qaeda-Hussein tie Bush often cited? Second, did Bush and his aides accurately represent this intelligence in their on-to-war pronouncements? There are other matters that warrant probing: Did the White House pressure intelligence analysts to produce conclusions in sync with its policy? Did the Pentagon set up an intelligence shop to cook up unsubstantiated intelligence that supported the case for war?

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