Belgrade, Serbia-Montenegro

At first glance, it appears that Djindjic's allies in the government, sensing that "it is us or them," seem to have taken the gloves off in pursuit of the prime minister's killers. More than 7,000 people have been detained, and more than 2,000, including the alleged triggerman, remain in custody. Businesses fronting for the Zemun Clan have been bulldozed, and high-profile Milosevic-era officials have been arrested. Among those detained were two former security aides to Vojislav Kostunica, a former ally of Djindjic's who replaced Milosevic as Yugoslav president in October 2000 but stepped down this past February, when Yugoslavia was dissolved. (A moderate nationalist, Kostunica was an ally of Djindjic's in the anti-Milosevic opposition, but the two later fell out over the pace of reform and whether to extradite war-crimes suspects to The Hague. Kostunica twice failed to win election to Serbia's presidency.) The new prime minister, Zoran Zivkovic, has also pledged greater cooperation with the Hague tribunal, including a promise to hunt down the notorious Ratko Mladic, wanted for the 1995 massacre of some 8,000 men and boys at Srebrenica, Bosnia-Herzegovina. However, Lukovic, the assassination plot's alleged mastermind, remains at large.

Many here argue that the Djindjic assassination could be the catalyst that finally pushes Serbia to face its bloody recent past, purge remnants of the old regime and institute genuine democratic reforms. Perhaps, but huge obstacles remain, and it is unclear whether the government has the stomach to surmount them. The country's law-enforcement establishment, judiciary and military remain infiltrated with Milosevic holdovers and Lukovic cronies. Nationalism and xenophobia remain prevalent, and many Serbs continue to view the West with suspicion. On the day of Djindjic's funeral, groups of men on Belgrade's main pedestrian mall hawked T-shirts with pictures of Mladic and Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic, also indicted for the Srebrenica massacre, reading "Serb Heroes."

As soldiers in camouflage with AK-47 assault rifles patrol the streets, the yawning gap between the soaring hopes of Serbia's "October Revolution" and today's gloomy reality should temper any expectations that democracy will flourish in Iraq, or elsewhere in the Middle East, after Saddam Hussein is gone. With enough firepower, any disciplined and well-trained army can depose a dictator. But changing a regime is another matter entirely.

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