Baghdad

The document discusses establishing a "transitional administration," saying UN agencies "might be asked to assist in nation and institution building." It envisions two major components of operations: "1) the first 100 days, and 2) Road Map for Reform (2 to 3 years of operations)." The document asserts that "even under a new type of government, it is likely that the country may slip back into its old ways" and that the UN "would also expect" that the new regime would make "political overtures to important neighbors and major powers at the same time as disciplinary measures against their agents in Iraq--the arrest and execution of Israeli, Iranian and US/UK agents." It continues, "In this mentality it would be quite consistent, indeed positively advisable, to allow the UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights into Iraq to denounce the excesses of the previous regime while reminding all concerned of the where the [sic] new 'red lines' were placed."

The Iraqi government is well into war mode. Television is rife with videos of members of the Fedayou Saddam (Saddam Militia), marching in Hezbollah-type garb. Military parades are being staged for journalists. The Baath Party is giving weapons to anyone who signs up for the party, and gunshop owners report significant increases in purchases. While the official line is that there will be fierce resistance across Iraq, privately officials seem resigned to the idea that the ground battle against a US-led invading force will ultimately be fought in Baghdad. While the government may quite possibly consolidate its resistance in the capital and offer fierce resistance, it is unlikely it could do so elsewhere in the country.

The tension and fears in Basra and elsewhere in the south, with its overwhelming Shiite population, are clearer than in Baghdad. Already the region suffers like no other in Iraq. People are caught between government repression and a deadly US-led policy of sanctions and regular bombing. The area will be a major focal point of any war, as it borders Kuwait, a certain entry point for invading US forces. "We have learned a great lesson since the Gulf War," said a Basra resident who asked to remain anonymous for fear of reprisal. "America told us to rise up and then watched the people get massacred in the streets. You can't imagine what happened here. This time, no one will leave their homes."

The hatred of the government in the south is clear, and there is little question that a change of government would be welcomed. But "we don't want the change to come through America's bombs," said another individual who requested anonymity. "Some people see it as enduring bombing, hoping to survive and then starting over without him [Saddam]. But most of us want a peaceful change brought about from within. We don't want anymore misery here."

There are rumors that Iraqi generals in the south are waiting for the right moment to rise up; the ordinary army there is staffed largely by unenthusiastic, poor, hungry soldiers who residents say will not defend the regime. But the government also has loyalists in the area, including an extensive network of secret police, as well as Baath Party and other militias. "All of them will fight for the regime, but the rest of us will stay in our homes and watch and wait," said a southern Shiite.

Hundreds of Iraqi imams, including those at the holy shrines at Najaf and Karbala, have signed on to a fatwa (a religious decree) calling for jihad against any invading forces. "This is not a war against Iraq, this is a war against Islam," says Abdul Rihad, the imam at the biggest Shiite mosque in Basra. He adds, "We don't like to fight. But if war is imposed on the Iraqi people, they should fight for their land, their blood, their family. But we do not want that, because this war will be a loser for both sides." Even those Iraqis in the south who said they would welcome a change of government also said they would fight US forces if they attempted to occupy their area. And perhaps that is what Saddam Hussein is banking on.

As the UN and the Iraqi populations wait, it is worth considering that the most striking fact about the UN documents is their acknowledgment that a new regime in Baghdad brought about by war would probably be much like the old one, sans Saddam Hussein. Such a conclusion reinforces the sense that there has thus far been no satisfactory answer to the question that millions of people around the world have been asking through protest for months: Why?

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