California's Gray Politics (Page 3)

Just as Davis inspires little enthusiasm from Democratic core activists, Simon's sometimes simplistic pro-life, antiregulatory conservatism and his amateurish campaigning run the risk of alienating big chunks of moderate suburban Republicans. Simon has even less appeal across party lines. And when it comes to California's emerging bloc of Latino voters, Simon confronts the bitter legacy left behind by Pete Wilson's support for Proposition 187--a major catalyst in registering a record number of new Latino voters as Democrats. Simon did take the bold move of kicking off his TV ad campaign with a Spanish-language spot aimed directly at those new voters; at a press conference unveiling the ads, Simon said it was "to highlight the priority that I'm placing on the Latino community." But when asked for a concrete example, Simon noted his position favoring a reduction of the capital gains tax--a position likely to have little appeal to the average new Latino voter. On the other hand, while California Latinos have been voting 7-to-3 for Democrats, it's hard to predict just how many will feel moved to turn out for Davis.

In an unusual move in early summer, the White House intervened directly in Simon's campaign, forcing a transfer of greater power to millionaire adviser Gerry Parsky, an intimate of George W. Bush and his top adviser, Karl Rove. Two former Reaganaut old-timers, Lyn Nofziger and Ed Rollins, were also dealt into the mix. The official spin was that as the Simon campaign became truly competitive with Davis‚ it was time to bring in "the adults." And, along with them, the President, who is scheduled to come to California to stump for Simon this month.

All this bigfooting didn't go down very well, however, with many party activists. Local Republicans complain that with Parksy and other out-of-town power brokers now in charge, the field operation and its funding are being neglected. The turmoil has only continued with the Simon camp naming its fourth campaign manager in as many months.

Republican skittishness about their own candidate was starkly revealed in mid-July, when Simon's coffers seemed to have only $5 million on hand, compared with Davis's $32 million. Further compounding Simon's troubles was his continued unwillingness to release his tax returns, even after he was publicly named as a possible tax cheat in the Wall Street Journal article. When pressed by California reporters on the issue, Simon would only say, "I believe everybody looks to be tax efficient. I don't think there's anything wrong with that." Simon only made things worse when, under intense pressure, he finally relented and issued a partial and limited release of returns, raising more questions than answering them. "This is all just PhD stupid," says a disgusted top state GOP official.

The more thoughtful among the Republicans are worried about what a Simon loss would mean. "Nothing less than our entire future is at stake in November," says the same GOP official. "As it is, we hold only one statewide office, secretary of state. If we screw up and lose big time again, like we did in '98, we won't have the governor's chair, we won't have any statewide office and we might not even have a third of the legislature. If that comes to pass, there'll be no reason for Republicans to get up in the morning." Already, Arnold Schwarzenegger is making celebrated suggestions that he will run for governor in 2006, implicitly conceding a Simon defeat.

With the two major-party candidates inspiring little excitement or loyalty, the November election ought to be fertile territory for third-party movements like the California Green Party. But while recent statewide polls show a surge of support for third-party contenders, Green gubernatorial candidate Peter Camejo, a Marxist-Leninist turned socially responsible investment banker, has yet to emerge from anonymity; his support is estimated at no more than 4 or 5 percent. In a state where politics is almost exclusively played out in two dozen media markets, all this means 100 more days of a brutal, relentless and negative "air war," with both sides eventually spending a million--or twice that--per week on TV ads that will do nothing to further any genuine policy debate. Fought out on that terrain, and with Simon raising maybe 25-30 percent less than Davis, the incumbent should probably still be considered the favorite.

As for progressives and other disillusioned Democrats, they have few appetizing choices. Some may be inspired to go to the polls to approve an Election Day voter registration measure (see sidebar, page 23). When it comes to the gubernatorial race, they can vote for the Green candidate. Or they can sit it out, risking a Republican victory. Or they can hold their noses and vote for Gray Davis. Tom Hayden, who retired from the legislature last year, cites his frustration with Davis but says he will nevertheless vote to re-elect him. "But the governor's race is not where we should be focusing our energies," says Hayden. "This is a time when we should concentrate our efforts on the legislative races, trying to elect as progressive a body as possible. That is a much better hope to get the policy changes we want."

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