The Threat to the Net

By any standard, the proposed merger of America Online and Time Warner, currently under review in Washington, is enormous. Even in this era of mega-mergers, the marriage of the world's largest Internet service provider (ISP) and the largest media conglomerate (which directly controls almost one-fifth of the nation's cable subscribers and which, through a relationship with AT&T, has a stake in another 30 percent) stands out above the rest. What we don't see, however--or rather won't see, so extensive is the web of mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures and "co-branded properties" that ensnares the mass media today--may be the biggest story of all: the transformation of the Internet into a collection of commercially driven "walled gardens."

Given cable's clout (roughly two-thirds of all households currently subscribe), the broadband networks that AOL-TW, AT&T and other cable operators are in the process of introducing will very likely become the Internet delivery platform of choice for most Americans in the years to come. Wireless and satellite broadband transmissions are still two to three years off, and even if the phone companies' new digital subscriber line (DSL) connections manage to maintain their small broadband market share (roughly 20 percent), cable's fatter pipes will allow it to win the race to deliver the rich-media content of the next-generation Internet.

While the basic structure of the Internet itself won't change--it will range as far and wide as ever--the means through which subscribers gain access to its varied resources, using systems modeled on cable's closed video platform, will gradually constrict. New forms of interactive television, offering what amounts to "Internet Lite" via proprietary set-top boxes, will substitute ease of use for freedom of choice, featuring what AOL-TW euphemistically refers to as "next-generation branded content." Over time, as cable broadband takes hold, the Internet for most Americans will evolve into what media historian Ben Bagdikian predicts will be "the biggest shopping mall in the world."

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