Consensus or Conflict

Most Congressional Democrats will rally behind the Clinton agenda laid out in the State of the Union address. Much of it is a carry-over from 1998--Save Social Security First, a Patient Bill of Rights and a flurry of liberal domestic initiatives: an increased minimum wage, more money for education, tax credits for long-term healthcare, credits for impoverished areas, etc. With Republicans mired in Monica, Democrats stand in bold contrast by focusing on Clinton's poll-tested, bite-sized gestures of concern.

But neither the consensus among Democrats nor the contrast with Republicans is likely to hold. The Clinton agenda is so timid that Republicans can easily co-opt much of it, and new House Speaker Dennis Hastert, despite his pristine conservative credentials, presents the very picture of earnest bipartisanship. Republicans are also for more money for education and a form of patient protection. Tax credits for long-term healthcare was in the Contract With America. Increased spending on the military is their victory. They stand ready to join the President in "saving Social Security" while passing tax cuts to keep the economy moving, hardly an unpopular proposition.

Democrats, on the other hand, are likely to find it harder to stay united. Depending on what Clinton does in the coming negotiations with Republicans, the party will face some brutal debates that simply cannot be ducked. The Progressive Caucus presented its own State of the Union message prior to the President's. Representative Jerrold Nadler warned against any retreat toward privatization of Social Security; Jan Schakowsky applauded the President's commitment to Medicare but expressed concern about disturbing reports on the long-term plans of his bipartisan commission on Medicare; Peter DeFazio scored the President's pledge to pump billions more into the Pentagon. Meanwhile, Bernie Sanders and Barney Frank are leading separate challenges to the corporate trade agenda.

The fate of social insurance, domestic priorities and investment, a global New Deal--differences on these issues can't simply be papered over, for they are fundamental to the direction of the country and the party.

The Battle for the Future

Nowhere was that more apparent than at the annual December conference of the Democratic Leadership Council, the big-money wing of the party. At each DLC convention, its president, Al From, gives New Democrats credit for all victories and blames all losses on the collective failures of "old Democrats"--liberals, unions, blacks, Jesse Jackson. (Where Clinton falls depends on how he fares. In 1992 when he won, the DLC claimed him as one of theirs. In 1994 when he was down, they kicked him for straying from the faith and muttered about breaking from the Democratic Party altogether. In 1996 he was back in their good graces again.)

This year, the DLC called upon three senators--two of them potential rivals to Gore--to give addresses on "facing the big challenges." Bob Kerrey argued for partial privatization of Social Security; John Breaux called for privatizing Medicare; and John Kerry suggested that the rigors of market competition provide a needed tonic to the public schools. As the crisis brought on by footloose capital flows engulfs the globe, the DLC paints public institutions--Social Security, Medicare, public education--as the central problem and pro-market reforms as the solution.

This agenda fits with the DLC's analysis of the "next politics." Not surprisingly, From took credit for Democratic gains in 1998. Rather than highlighting the remarkable turnout of union families, the strategic mobilization of blacks and Hispanics or the continuing gender gap, From and presidential pollster Mark Penn focused on Democratic gains among affluent voters--particularly those with $75,000-$100,000 in family income. These voters are critical, From argues, because "America is becoming more affluent and the number of upper-middle-class voters is expanding." In From's notion, New Democrat ideas and themes appeal to the growing upper middle class, and the muscle of organized labor can be used to get out the vote of working and poor people.

This analysis obscures more than it informs. As Ruy Teixeira of the Economic Policy Institute points out, Democrats have been losing ground because of the decline of support among non-college-educated voters, particularly white males. These voters have been both dropping out of the political process, which offers them little, and turning away from Democrats. A majority of college-educated voters continues to vote Republican. Any strong Democratic majority for change depends upon re-engaging working families across lines of race and region--not the proverbial "soccer moms" but "waitress moms" and "technician dads."

For From and Penn, however, the decline in low-income-voter participation is an opportunity. From suggests, with relief, that Democratic candidates need not cater so much to unions anymore; they can get the money and votes from more upscale precincts. Populist politics are passé. The New Democrat "third way" combines fiscal conservatism, free trade and pro-market reforms with social moderation that will allegedly captivate the rising upper middle class (or at least make fundraising a lot easier).

Anyone who cares about the vast majority of Americans can't head down this path. The global financial crisis, the growing inequality at home and the insecurity amid prosperity mandate a renewed fight for an activist government. As AFL-CIO president John Sweeney put it, "In these conditions, corporations need more accountability, not more license. Financial markets need more oversight, not less. Workers need to be empowered, not weakened. The problem is not that governments are too strong, but that they are too weak."

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