What to Watch For

As the longest presidential campaign in American history finally concludes, polls tell us that Americans are hugely invested in the election that will be decided -- they hope -- today. A new Gallup survey suggests that 92 percent of likely voters think this is the most important election in years.

That level of engagement means that, necessarily, we are all looking for indications of how the presidential race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain will finish. Here's one:

In the tiny New Hampshire town of Dixville Notch where voters traditionally cast their ballots at midnight, which has not supported a Democrat for president in forty years, and which favored George Bush by overwhelming margins in 2000 and 2004, Obama secured a landslide victory.

The Democrat won 15 of 21 Dixville Notch votes.

In another New Hampshire town that casts and counts all its votes before dawn, Obama had 17 votes to 10 for Mr McCain and 2 for renegade Republican Ron Paul.

If the margin holds as the next 100 million or so votes are cast, Obama's victory will not merely be historic. It will be epic in scope.

But for those who may doubt the predictive powers of the Dixville Notchers, here are a dozen indicators to watch for today, tonight and, maybe, tomorrow morning:

1. Figure out where the lines are long. Tens of millions of Americans -- perhaps 25 percent of the total turnout -- have already cast "early" votes. But most ballots will be marked today. And where the largest crowds of voters are lining up to cast them matters. Watch the college towns in battleground states – such as the aptly-named State College, Pennsylvania. Young people did not cast early votes in the numbers that the Obama camp had hoped to see. Will they crowd the polls on election day? Watch traditionally Republican suburbs, especially those with mega-churches, as well. Are the lines as long in these locations as they are at urban polling places? If so, then the McCain camp may, itself, benefit from a universal boost in turnout.

2. Keep a watch for evidence of breakdowns in the process. If people are waiting more than an hour in line, that's a problem, as it makes voting harder for working people – especially young parents. If machines are breaking down, if polling places are opening late, look to see if the courts move quickly to extend voting hours. Are there patterns of intimidation at the polls – aggressive challenging of registrations, questions about residence and citizenship status – and what is being done to address them? Follow reports at the No More Stolen Elections website. If there are going to be contested results, you'll see the crisis developing.

HOT SPOTS to watch: Missouri, where there always seem to be problems in St. Louis, as well as Pennsylvania (especially the Philadelphia area), Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada. These are states that have seen significant patterns of complaint and concern going into Election Day.

3. In the afternoon, watch CNN's Bill Schneider and NBC's Chuck Todd, both of whom will be in possession of the best exit-polling data. If they start saying things like "Obama seems to be doing very well" or "This could be a very good night for the Democrats," recognize that the pundits are no longer merely speculating. The same will be true if they say "This could be a long night" or "Mr. McCain might have a surprise in store for the Obama people."

4. When the actual results start coming in, don't just pay attention to the battleground states. Early returns from the state of Kentucky, where the polls close in most of the state at 6 p.m. EST and where McCain is thought to be well ahead, will provide important indications. A projection won't come immediately, as a portion of the state keeps polls open until 7 p.m. EST. But the count and projection should come more quickly in this state than any other. And it could be meaningful. For instance, if Kentucky is not quickly projected for the Republican, that means that Obama is running better than expected. If, when results become available, the Democrat is at 45 percent or better, bet that he will win states such as Indiana, Ohio and West Virginia. If Obama wins Kentucky, start thinking "landslide." BONUS ROUND: If Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, loses, then the Democrats are on track for a Senate super majority, which will allow them to block Republican delaying moves such as filibusters.

5. When all the polls are closed at 7:00 p.m. EST in Indiana and Virginia, we'll begin to get a clear picture of whether Obama's 50-state strategy is working. If either state declares quickly for the Democrat, that's hugely significant. Obama is expected to win Virginia, but if his margin is wide enough to put the state in his column early in the evening, then he is making movement that could be significant not just in Virginia but in neighboring North Carolina. On the other hand, if McCain wins Virginia, then the Republican is beginning to put together the pieces of an upset.

If anything, Indiana, is even more significant than Virginia. Solidly Republican in presidential politics since 1964, Indiana wasn't supposed to be competitive this year. But it is. And if Obama secures the state early in the evening, his chances of winning neighboring Ohio – as well as another battleground state, West Virginia – will look a whole lot better.

6. Another 7:00 p.m. EST closing is in South Carolina. Don't look for an Obama win here. But watch a congressional race. Republican Congressman Henry Brown is in a tight contest with wealthy philanthropist Linda Ketner, an out-of-the-closet lesbian who has rewritten a lot of political rule books this year. If Ketner wins, which polls suggest is possible, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's strategy on recruiting candidates and targeting resources in a wider range of districts is working. In the neighboring state of Georgia, where polls also close at 7 p.m. EST, watch the Senate race: incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss is vulverable; if he loses outright or is forced into a run-off (required under state law if no one gets a majority), the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee will be popping champagne corks early.

BONUS ROUND: In the results from South Carolina and Georgia, we'll begin to get a clearer read on the role a dramatic increase in African-American turnout might play in presidential and congressional contests -- especially in states that were not expected to be competitive.

7. At 8 p.m. EST, the flood begins, with polls closing in 20 states. Don't expect quick results from Pennsylvania. The Keystone State does not "do" early voting, so the lines will be long and tens of thousands of voters may still be in line (and eligible to vote) when the official closing time comes. The same goes for Missouri, which closes as 8. Best hope for early indicators: New Hampshire. Did McCain take it back for the Republicans? He probably has to do so in order to win. Keep an eye, as well, on South Dakota, the Central Time half of which reports at 8 (while the Mountain Time half reports at 9). The state moved into "toss up" status at the close of race. A small state that counts quickly, South Dakota could give one of the first signals about whether Obama's western strategy is succeeding in repainting traditionally red states blue.

8. At 8:30 p.m. EST, polls in North Carolina close. Did the state go Democratic in a presidential race for the first time since 1976? Obama does not, necessarily, need it. McCain really can't afford to lose it. Equally significant: Did Republican Senator Elizabeth Dole, who closed her campaign on a particularly vicious note of religious intolerance, lose? If Democrat Kay Hagan beats Dole, a President Obama is all but certain to have an overwhelmingly Democratic Senate – perhaps even the filibuster-proof one that he barely dared imagine just weeks ago.

9. At 9 p.m. EST, 15 more states finish voting. More than 430 of the 538 electoral votes will be accounted for. As results become available from Colorado, New Mexico and newly-competitive Arizona, and if votes are being counted quickly, it will now be possible to declare a national winner. If Obama takes Colorado and New Mexico on top of a solid pattern of east-of-the-Mississippi wins, he'll be president. If he takes McCain's home state of Arizona, his victory will be capped with delicious irony.

10. The 9 p.m. EST batch of states will also provide key indications regarding Democratic prospects in Congress. Did McCarthyite Republican Congresswoman Michele Bachmann lose her Minnesota district to challenger Elwyn Tinklenberg, whose campaign took off after Bachmann started ranting on MSNBC's "Hardball" in late October? Did Democrats pick up the open Minnesota House seat being sought by Iraq War vet Ashwin Madia? Wins in those districts would point to major pick-ups – perhaps more than thirty seats overall for Speaker Nancy Pelosi's House Democrats. Similarly, if Democrat Al Franken displaces Republican incumbent Norm Coleman in Minnesota's intense U.S. Senate race, Democrats will be on track to dominate the upper chamber. (And Franken-hater-in-chief Bill O'Reilly might explode – not figuratively, but literally.)

11. In the states with 10 p.m. EST closing times, watch Iowa and Nevada. The campaigns put last-minute time and resources into both states, although Iowa appeared to be safely in the Democratic column. If Obama wins Iowa and turns Nevada from red to blue, one of these states might put him over the top. But that is only because the big-ticket state of California, which also reports at 10 p.m. EST, will take longer to count. When the numbers are known, however, we will be reminded why Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger made his big campaign stop for McCain in Ohio, not California. The Golden State is solid blue.

BONUS ROUND: Will Ron Paul's votes on the Constitution Party ballot line in Montana cost McCain a state that has long leaned Republican in presidential contests but has been trending Democratic. Paul's signs are everywhere in Montana, and if he takes 4 or 5 percent of the vote, it could be just enough to tip the state to Obama.

12. At 11 p.m. EST, when Washington state is finished voting and all the precincts in neighboring Oregon are shuttered, watch for a pair of congressional results. Did Democrat Jeff Merkley defeat Republican Senator Gordon Smith, who tried to run as a moderate (going so far as to link himself with Obama in GOP television ads)? Did Darcy Burner, a progressive Democrat who ran on a strong anti-war platform, grab a Republican-held seat outside Seattle. Both wins would signal not just that Democrats are winning congressional races but that the next Democratic caucuses will tilt to the left of the old ones.

Finally, if you can't get enough of Election 2008, the last polls remain open in Alaska until 1 a.m. EST on Wednesday. You can stay up and see whether convicted Senator Ted Stevens loses. (Best bet: Democrat Nick Begich beats him.) And you see exactly how much Sarah Palin contributed to the Republican ticket in a state where Obama was once thought to be competitive. If the Republicans don't win more than 60 percent in Alaska, Palin's got troubles at home Is that possible? You betcha!

Comments (56)

1. Politicians are like diapers. They both need changing regularly and for the same reason. ~Author Unknown Hell

   I Hope it's time to Change the diapers.

   Posted by crabwalk at 11/04/2008 @ 07:03am

2. Trying desperately to not to count my chickens...feeling optimistic though...

   ...however, is it going to be obvious? Or is it going to be a debacle like 2000? I sincerely hope not.

   Posted by marilynm at 11/04/2008 @ 07:06am

3. What I meant by the 2000 thing is will it be a mess? or will "they" play fair? I don't think there is a chance of election stealing this time. There are too many interested parties (like 130million)...

   Posted by marilynm at 11/04/2008 @ 07:12am

4. This is why I think watching Fox News will be funnier than watching Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert...

   and watching Hannity's face!

   LOL

   Posted by Maskdelta at 11/04/2008 @ 07:18am

5. I am too faint of heart to bare Fox, they make my shoulders ache, any my stomach turn...

   Posted by marilynm at 11/04/2008 @ 07:25am

6. It's gonna be a landslide!

   There are gonna be a few preprogrammed "disenfranchised voters" on camera. But once Obama is declared the winner, they'll be drowned out by the noise.

   Posted by bleedingheart at 11/04/2008 @ 07:33am

7. "renegade Republican Ron Paul"

   renegade?

   why, that's a full two levels above "maverick".

   Posted by frosty zoom at 11/04/2008 @ 08:25am

8. Watch traditionally Republican suburbs, especially those with mega-churches, as well. Are the lines as long in these locations as they are at urban polling places?

   how could they be?

   their machines actually work.

   Posted by frosty zoom at 11/04/2008 @ 08:26am

9. Posted by bleedingheart at 11/04/2008 @ 07:33am

   Even better than the end of this election cycle today....

   the end of bleedingheart on the "TN" blog.

   Posted by Maskdelta at 11/04/2008 @ 08:34am

10. What a crappy voting environment! Years ago in NYC people bustled on the sidewalk outside of the polling place where campaigners stood just outside of the "No electioneering within 50 feet of the poll" signs the election board posted passing out leaflets and saying vote for this or that one. No more. Just dour people and a notice stating what I.D. is required should your name appear with the letters ID on the rolls. What a drag. I should take the freaking day off and stand out there with a sign.

    Posted by A_Pax_On_Your_Houses at 11/04/2008 @ 08:53am

11. I am definitely going out to vote for Ron Paul today, at least someone who believes in making a difference. Its amazing what we had to put up with for the last 8 years.

    If you can vote for Ron Paul in a writein or ballot in LA and Montana. Make an actual difference for someone who believes in balanced budgets!

    Posted by jamestardio at 11/04/2008 @ 08:59am

12. Come hear Uncle John's band, playing to the tide Got some things to talk about here beside the riverside - Robert Hunter

    Posted by A_Pax_On_Your_Houses at 11/04/2008 @ 09:08am

13. Posted by Darin_the_Troll at 11/04/2008 @ 09:03am

    Darin, after 2000 and 2004, any win over 310 electorals is pretty "decisive". Any win over 350 electorals is a "landslide".

    BTW, Palin Schmalin....no way you were ever NOT going to vote for McCain/Palin. Especially as soon as North Carolina became "toss-up".

    Posted by Maskdelta at 11/04/2008 @ 09:16am

14. The election eve roll out of the Repub's 527 ads on Reverend Wright last night are cowardly, desperate and pathetic. This is their last salvo? Way to end it on a high note GOP. Vote fear rather than hope. Thanks for the "real" nightmare which has shown us who to be really, really afraid of.

    Posted by OneVote at 11/04/2008 @ 09:37am

15. World markets rally as US goes to the polls Tuesday November 4, 8:02 am ET By Pan Pylas, AP Business Writer World markets rally as US goes to the polls; Wall Street poised for election day rally

    "LONDON (AP) -- European markets moved higher Tuesday on expectations Wall Street will enjoy an election day rally and ahead of Thursday's interest rate decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.".........

    Dow up +175 in early trade! - apparently the market believes in "Yes We Can" as well.

    Posted by OneVote at 11/04/2008 @ 09:47am

16. Watch Florida's numbers. Not the percentages, but the actual number of votes cast. In 2004, Bush got 3.96 million votes in Florida, more than a million than his total in 2000, and a 36% increase (not bad for a guy with a national approval rating of 48.5%). Now let's think about these million-plus people who got so excited about george that they came out to vote for him for the first time in 2004. should we just take it for granted that these republican newbies are now permanently in the republican column? is that how happy & satisfied they are with their decision to vote republican in 2004?

    kerry added over 600,000 votes to gore's 2000 total. he got 3.58 million votes, an increase of 23%. who agrees with me that there are plenty reasons to think that obama will exceed kerry's florida totals, while mccain might just struggle to hang on to bush's "magic million"?

    if mccain matches or exceeds bush's vote level, i must say i'll be wondering about these floridians who suddenly became republican voters in 2004 & were so satisfied with that experience that they came back for more (or maybe it's more like a tag-team thing, where starting in 2004, a new set will come out every 4 years to replace the old).

    the campaigns aren't saying "we have 52%, we have 48%," etc. they're counting numbers of votes. what will happen if x number of students vote, y number of blacks, etc. pollsters should be educating us about the demographics of the universe of voters, and how who votes in this election might result in a transformation of just who this universe is perceived to be, and the implications of that for the future of american politics. count the votes in florida. if mccain wins, i for one will smell a rat.

    Posted by Jason Rhodes at 11/04/2008 @ 09:55am

17. Realclear politics has him projected at 338. If true, it is solid, but no landslide.

    Posted by Darin_the_Troll at 11/04/2008 @ 09:03am | ignore this person | warn this person

    338/525 = 65%...........2/3rds is not a clear mandate for change? It will be strange indeed if the electoral count finishes 70% Obama - 30% McCain. Pretty much similar to the Bush approval ratings.

    Posted by OneVote at 11/04/2008 @ 09:55am

18. Posted by OneVote at 11/04/2008 @ 09:37am

    Saw that ad about five times this morning.

    Encapsulates the utter aimlessness of the entire McCain campaign. It couldn't even manage to organize its attack ads in an effective manner. Rev. Wright? Did we just time warp to April?

    Posted by Hman23 at 11/04/2008 @ 09:56am

19. Bush one in 2000 by just one vote (one Supreme vote) and he treated that like a mandate sure enough.

    Obama kicks some serious butt in 2008 and that's not a mandate?

    Posted by RocketJ at 11/04/2008 @ 10:01am

20. Encapsulates the utter aimlessness of the entire McCain campaign. It couldn't even manage to organize its attack ads in an effective manner. Rev. Wright? Did we just time warp to April?

    Posted by Hman23 at 11/04/2008 @ 09:56am | ignore this person | warn this person

    Its Back to the Future with a McCain administration - like another 8 years of hell.

    Posted by OneVote at 11/04/2008 @ 10:05am

21. Anyway, I still believe in limited government,

    •• me, too! darin, how could you? the republicans are just pathetic fiscally. check the numeros. pathetic.

    pro-growth economic policies,

    •• we'll talk.

    self-reliance,

    •• damn right! there's no way thoreau would have voted for anything blighted by palin.

    and personal responsibility

    •• so how in the world could you vote for mr. mccain? darin, i'm very disappointed.

    even if most of the Republicans elected to office don't walk-the-walk when it comes to these Republican values.

    •• darin, you chose the she-male instead of the real thing. quick, run back! if you're real nice, they'll let you switch it. or call the diebold hotline: 1-800-SWI-CHER

    •• 5,700,000,000 people were counting on you, darin. now, you shall ever bear that weight.

    Posted by Darin_the_Troll at 11/04/2008

    Posted by frosty zoom at 11/04/2008 @ 10:14am

22. troll,

    about a week ago you mocked me for my prediction that we would see significantly higher turnout today than in 2004. you predicted lower turnout for today, saying you thought obama would get 58 million votes and mccain 54-58 million (i.e., you predict at least a 5% decrease from last year).

    do you stand by your estimate? would you be willing to put your money where your gut is? how about this. if turnout this year is lower than 2004, by even a single vote, i send a $15 amazon gift certificate your way. on the other hand, if turnout exceeds that of 2004 by more than 5%, you do the same for me. since there were about 121 million voters in 2004, more than 6 million new voters would have to materialize in order for me to win the bet.

    c'mon, troll! my prediction deserved nothing but scorn & mockery. now's your chance for some easy loot! and even if i don't pay up, you're still the winner, as you'd have proof of left-wing mendacity right here on the chat-page of the nation, for the eyes of the world to see. so do we have ourselves a deal?

    Posted by Jason Rhodes at 11/04/2008 @ 10:18am

23. Realclear politics has him projected at 338. If true, it is solid, but no landslide.

    Posted by Darin_the_Troll at 11/04/2008

    my friend just reminded me that two weeks ago i said obama 345

    538's got him at 346.5 today.

    next election i'm gonna have my own site up.

    www.frostypoll.fact -- polls felt through the gut.

    Posted by frosty zoom at 11/04/2008 @ 10:27am

24. Posted by OneVote at 11/04/2008 @ 09:55am

    Darin's trying to play down a strong Obama showing. He HAS to.

    ACORN can't "steal" enough votes...the "Liberal Media went easy on Obama" thing doesn't cover enough GOP ass....he can't attack Palin and saying McCain "wasn't pure conservative enough" undermines his previous lines of support of the man.

    There aren't any good excuses...so the only thing left is to "demean the victory".

    BTW, you think Darin had any problems with Dubya acting like HE had a mandate in 2000?

    Posted by Maskdelta at 11/04/2008 @ 10:28am

25. BTW, you think Darin had any problems with Dubya acting like HE had a mandate in 2000?

    Posted by Maskdelta at 11/04/2008 @ 10:28am | ignore this person | warn this person

    Under Darin's one-way Unitary Executive Theory - no problem. But I am sure that Darin will be all for restoring checks and balances for an Obama administration, despite Obama's landslide.

    Posted by OneVote at 11/04/2008 @ 10:35am

26. Darin_the_Troll:

    Palin was "cleared" by a personnel board that she appointed.

    If you are clinging to that kind of fact pattern on this board, you should go directly to Fox.com. I am sure that you can find some equally shallow and narrow minded individuals with whom you can commiserate about other fictional stories.

    Posted by KidT at 11/04/2008 @ 10:36am

27. "Victorious in at least 47 states but facing continued Democratic domination of both the House and Senate, the 50 year-old Chief Executive told the nation his "huge landslide margin means nothing" unless "all of us can work together to achieve our common goals of. . . peace for all nations. . . and that new progress and prosperity that all Americans deserve."

    Excerpt from: Nixon Wins Landslide Victory; Democrats Hold Senate, House McGovern Admits Defeat; President Calls for Harmony

    By David S. Broder Washington Post Staff Writer Wednesday, November 8, 1972; Page A01

    But in our current election, executive and legislative branches (with a supermajority possible) will be of the same party. I know this is contrary to President Obama's philosophy of bi-partisanship, but it looks like it is going to be the Dems saying "it is my way or the highway" to the Repub minority. Oh yeah......Dems will have mandate.....lol.....big time!

    Posted by OneVote at 11/04/2008 @ 10:57am

28. in 2006 my township had 1700 registered voters, 1400 of whom showed up. Today the number of registered voters was 2900, in a twp with an adult population of roughtly 3300.

    Fabulous!

    Plenty of machines and workers. I have never had to wait but today I did, even with the extra. It was not long though, maybe 20 minutes of kibbutzing with the neighbors and staff. Had fun, voted for some guy named Hussein, it rang a bell so I picked him.

    Posted by crabwalk at 11/04/2008 @ 11:03am

29. every poll on realclearpolitics has Obama up from 2-11 points, avg 7.5%.

    Posted by crabwalk at 11/04/2008 @ 11:08am

30. Had fun, voted for some guy named Hussein, it rang a bell so I picked him.

    Posted by crabwalk at 11/04/2008 @ 11:03am | ignore this person | warn this person

    lol.............good for you. Has a nice ring to it.

    Posted by OneVote at 11/04/2008 @ 11:19am

31. thanks, crab.

    boooooooo, darin.

    Posted by frosty zoom at 11/04/2008 @ 11:22am

32. Prediction: Landslide with at least 375 electoral votes and likely more than 400.

    Personally, I think Obama will win at least seven of the following: Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana. I also think you are going to see interesting races in unexpected places like Georgia and Arizona.

    I think the website 538 makes good arguments about why you can ignore exit polling and Dixville Notch.

    Also, it is interesting that Al Frankin wasn't mentioned. Frankin is the only toss-up Senate race. He will be a key indicator to a 60 seat Senate, which I think is highly unlikely.

    Posted by srjenkins at 11/04/2008 @ 11:27am

33. Dear ALL Please educate me as a Canadian! Why doesn't the USA have a uniform and integrated national voting system like we have here in Canada (Managed by Elections Canada, an independent agency accountable to Parliament)? That should for the most part avoid a plethora of problems that seem to occur in recent elections there. Best wishes Sam

    Posted by samgeorge at 11/04/2008 @ 11:57am

34. An Obama win, like Clintons, would be a show of the American Dream in action. It would show that anybody can grow up and succeed. Unlike the party of boot straps that has nominated the son of an admiral and gold digger, the son of a president, an actor from hollywood and a crook, the dems have nominated and elected people that did it the way the repubs theories should work, not the way their reality does.

    Posted by crabwalk at 11/04/2008 @ 11:58am

35. Posted by samgeorge at 11/04/2008 @ 11:57am

    Because states are in charge of elections, not the feds, according to The Owners Manual.

    Posted by crabwalk at 11/04/2008 @ 12:00pm

36. If the fundamental assumption in the US Constitution is that your society is a democracy, surely its most important aspect viz. voting and elections that allow voting by all citizens, has to be a national or federal responsibility, isn't it? Sam

    Posted by samgeorge at 11/04/2008 @ 12:08pm

37. Posted by Darin_the_Troll at 11/04/2008 @ 10:31am

    Darin....a 350 EC victory IS a "landslide" in present circumstances.

    Speaking of your vote for Senator....did you vote for Dole?

    Any reservations after she tried to smear Kay Hagen by faking her voice saying "There is no God"? or is "all's fair in love, war, and politics" to you?

    Posted by Maskdelta at 11/04/2008 @ 12:09pm

38. "There are gonna be a few preprogrammed "disenfranchised voters" on camera..."

    Posted by bleedingheart at 11/04/2008

    BLOODY STOOL comes out of the ASHLEY TODD-FRANCISCO CAVA-TED HAGGARD-LARRY CRAIG-MARK FOLEY-GEORGE W. FAILURE lineage of rightwinbg loserdom.

    This may explain why he approves of voter suppression and stands by its perps. BLOODY STOOL is the kind of zero talent dead-ender who is inifinately more suited to an order in which SADDAM HUSSEIN fabricates an electoral show in a climate of fear than one in which BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA triumphs on the basis of skill and merit.

    Although BLOODY STOOL does not understand our freedoms and concepts such as meritocracy even as they are exercised in his midst, we will continue to exercise them robustly regardless of how little rubs off on his densely rightwing neo-neanderthal skull.

    Posted by PhilMcCrevice at 11/04/2008 @ 12:12pm

39. On Oct 23 and Oct 24, 2008, the County of Orange, CA, Registrar of Voters Office ( aka "Orange Curtain") informed me that I can not receive a mail in Ballot nor vote early, for I was PURGED from the rolls and cannot be reinstated!!!! Never mind, that I have been domiciled in Orange County, CA for decades!!!

    So, unless some miracle happens, I am prevented from voting for the candidate of my choice That SUX!!!! Will the Republican stranglehold ever end?? GRRRR!

    Posted by powmia at 11/04/2008 @ 12:14pm

40. On Oct 23 and Oct 24, 2008, the County of Orange, CA, Registrar of Voters Office ( aka "Orange Curtain") informed me that I can not receive a mail in Ballot nor vote early, for I was PURGED from the rolls and cannot be reinstated!!!! Never mind, that I have been domiciled in Orange County, CA for decades!!!

    So, unless some miracle happens, I am prevented from voting for the candidate of my choice That SUX!!!! Will the Republican stranglehold ever end?? GRRRR!

    Posted by powmia at 11/04/2008 @ 12:15pm

41. Can't wait to get my H: The President bumper sticker!!

    Posted by rykart at 11/04/2008 @ 12:19pm

42. Wish you could vote here, Frosty, in case you aren't dual national.

    Posted by A_Pax_On_Your_Houses at 11/04/2008 @ 12:32pm

43. Posted by samgeorge at 11/04/2008 @ 12:08pm

    It is an understandable misunderstanding. The United States is NOT a democracy. We are a constitutional republic. There is no constitutional righ to vote for president. The president is actually picked by the electoral college, which is peopled by the states. How a state picks it's EC delegates is also up to the states, most are a winner take all, some do proportional representaion.

    Posted by crabwalk at 11/04/2008 @ 1:08pm

44. Firedoglake is having a prediction contest http://action.firedoglake.com/page/s/sweepstakes

    For the record, I predicted a 364-174 EV win for Obama

    A Senate breakdown of 56 D, 2 I and 42 R (I don't think Franken's getting in) meaning that Specter, Snowe and Collins are going to have a fair amount of power in filibuster situations.

    A House gain of 22 seats for the Democrats (258-177)

    I just wish they had an over/under for Nader and Barr. Over/Under 1% specifically.

    Posted by brunowe at 11/04/2008 @ 1:26pm

45. When I logged on to Yahoo, they had a poll that nervously predicted that Obama would get 338 electoral votes. We may be looking at a landslide of gigantic proportions? I think he will win!

    Posted by P. J. Casey at 11/04/2008 @ 1:31pm

46. Brunowe, 364 would be close to a "landslide". Just under 70%.

    Don't you think Darin?

    SAMGEORGE- take a look at what we are discussing. It would appear that the popular vote will be around 54% Obama, 45% McCain. Not a landslide. But, the electoral college shows Obama at around 60-70%, due to the winner take all aspect of the EC. A landslide in what counts for president, the EC. That is why Gore could win the popular vote in 2000, but the EC (and the Supremes) gave it to Chimpy McFlightsuit.

    Posted by crabwalk at 11/04/2008 @ 1:50pm

47. this is cool!

    [Parma: Vote and vaccinate program returns Posted by Sun News October 15, 2008 17:47PM The Academy of Medicine of Cleveland and Northern Ohio again will host the Vote and Vaccinate program on Election Day, Nov. 4 at polling locations across the region.

    Both pneumonia and flu shots will be administered to residents in neighborhoods where vaccination rates are low.

    Guidelines established by The Centers for Disease Control indicate October and November as the ideal months for the most effective immunization against these illnesses, especially for those in the high risk priority group of 65 years and older. The cost of flu and pneumonia shots is covered by Medicare Part B. Registered nurses will administer the vaccines from 8 a.m. to 2 p.m.

    Vote & Vaccinate is a parallel program to voting and not connected with the Board of Elections. The goal is simply to offer the vaccinations conveniently to seniors and others when they go out to vote Nov. 4.

    The 2008 program is co-sponsored by the AMCNO, Cuyahoga County Board of Health, Cleveland Department of Public Health, Parma Community General Hospital and Ohio KePRO, Inc. ]

    Posted by crabwalk at 11/04/2008 @ 2:03pm

48. Yeah we should all state our voting experiences.

    I voted early and made several passes before I stopped to vote as I was doing errands to and from my house and there were lines out the building.

    I finally convinced myself to stop and wait. But by the time I got to the door, the line was inside. Then I noticed that most of the line headed away from the voting room to a gym and workout rooms! So as I followed the vote arrow signs around the corner I noticed people heading the other way and out the door-- so when I actually get in the room--- I'm f-ing NEXT! TALK ABOUT A F-ING MIRACLE!?!?!

    I hadn't even had time to put my wallet away after voting 'til I got my little voting sticker; so I pasted on my wallet.

    Posted by hsuBfools at 11/04/2008 @ 2:30pm

49. Decent people must use the current momentum to hound the republicans out of our schools, offices, grocery stores, out of our communities.

    The republicans must become, like the Ku Klux Klan and similar racist hate groups, totally marginalized and driven to the far fringes of society. It will be impossible to ever get rid of them completely. They are like fire ants we will have to periodically pour chemicals on.

    Posted by rykart at 11/04/2008 @ 2:56pm

50. <i>Posted by rykart at 11/04/2008 @ 2:56pm </i>

    What patent nonsense. And we wonder why meaningful discourse in this country is difficult.

    This isn't to say that the same doesn't happen on the other side; it most definitely does. My point is...it shouldn't happen at all. People aren't fire ants or hate groups simply because they disagree with you.

    Posted by Thrawn at 11/04/2008 @ 4:24pm

51. Haven't had a chance to check any of the polling or map sites, so these predictions are based on day-old info:

    Presidential Popular Vote: Obama 52% McCain 47%

    Electoral College: Obama 350, give or take

    U.S. Senate Dems +9 (and that despicable faux moderate, Susan Collins, survives)

    U.S. House Dems +40-50

    All of the above could be lowball estimates. I doubt it, but Obama might hit 53% of the popular vote. I think there's a better chance of Obama approaching 400 electoral votes and the Dems picking up 11 or 12 seats in the Senate and 50-60 in the House. I know the Dems picked up 36 House seats in 2006, but given the results in the special elections earlier this year and the general trend of things, I think the 2006-2008 total will be closer to 75 or 80 than 55 or 60.

    On an emotional level, such Democratic gains will make me feel good for a day or two - the GOP really does deserve a beating - but from what I'm hearing about Obama's likely cabinet and staff appointments, that should wear off pretty quickly and I'll take pride in the fact that for the 22nd year in a row, I won't have voted for a Democrat or a Republican in a partisan election.

    Posted by cka2nd at 11/04/2008 @ 4:32pm

52. Posted by Thrawn at 11/04/2008 @ 4:24pm | ignore this person | warn this person

    Didn't mean to engage in species-ism. Nothing inherently wrong with fire ants, (though they may be an awful nuisance at times).

    Republicans are another matter. They have launched an unprovoked war of aggression that has left 1.2 million people dead and 4.5 homeless.

    They have robbed the country blind, ravaged the environment and set up torture chambers.

    Their current heroes are a man who brags about murdering "gooks" and a woman who brags about shooting wolves from an airplane.

    These are not people one engages in good-natured, banter.

    These are vermin who threaten life on earth.

    Posted by rykart at 11/04/2008 @ 5:13pm

53. go to slaughterhaus.com for political updates

    Posted by Scottbloggs at 11/04/2008 @ 5:23pm

54. <i>Posted by rykart at 11/04/2008 @ 5:13pm </i>

    Some of their platforms (such as the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and promoting an originalist judicial philosophy) I have agreed with or still currently agree with. I abhor things like torture, but agree with Republicans on some other points. Does that make me partially "the enemy"?

    What I think you forget is that most of the disagreements between parties are not about fundamental principle. No one defends increasing poverty or killing people needlessly. The problem is that there is a lot of disagreement as to what means will best fulfill those goals. That's where a lot of the debate happens. Being wrong does not make you evil by any stretch of the imagination; one would think that with human fallibility, we would have the capacity to understand one another's mistake and also entertain the idea that they might be right and we might be wrong. Assuming that those who disagree with you are not only wrong, but so wrong as to somehow be evil, strikes me as incredible hubris.

    This hubris is dangerous. Demonization of one's political opponents is one of the most dangerous threats to any democracy (Katrina herself made that patently clear when condemning the labeling of Democrats as "anti-American"). In fact, that kind of demonization has often created some of the most vicious political movements this world has ever seen. Don't let yourself fall prey to it.

    Posted by Thrawn at 11/04/2008 @ 6:21pm

55. Hi Thrawn

    Good post..and one I want to agree with, though I find I can't.

    Where does one draw a line between a difference of opinion and a viewpoint that can not be countenanced by sane people? That line is probably a little different for every person. For me, the republicans leapt over it decades ago.

    Surely, the Nazis had arguments as to why the Jews of Europe posed a threat to society and had to be eradicated. Is one to approach their mindset by saying "well---who knows? Maybe they are right? They are entitled to their due." ..or can we recognize unadulterated hatred and criminality and condemn it without qualification?

    The republicans are genocidaires. They are mass murderers and the invasion of Iraq is not qualitatively different from the Nazi invasion of Poland. This is pure aggression with a horrific human toll. I DO regard the supporters of such madness as enemies of humankind.

    Nor do I feel that those arguing for a 6000 year old earth, an end to stem cell research and an imminent 'second coming' after an eagerly anticipated apocalypse are people we ought to molly coddle. The risks are simply too great. The filth in power now largely date to the Vietnam era. We never successfully rid the country of them and so this virulence again emerged to cause more suffering and death.

    We will not survive if republicans are able to reconstitute themselves and regain power. They will drive the planet to extinction.

    Posted by rykart at 11/04/2008 @ 6:59pm

56. Thrawn, I enjoyed reading your responses here, and agree with you that we, as a nation, must begin to find common ground and a spirit of bipartisanship among the folks with any power to effect meaningful progress - namely ourselves. To rykart I would say I feel similar outrage, but I intend to become more active politically and to educate myself more so as to become - well, I don't really know what yet - but I encourage you to keep writing, keep your involvement up and make your opinions count. We are a poly-whatever society, thank goodness.

    Posted by A_Pax_On_Your_Houses at 11/04/2008 @ 9:00pm