Split Result Helps Obama, But Leaves Race Undone

posted by John Nichols on 05/06/2008 @ 8:53pm

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The race for the Democratic presidential nomination did not end Tuesday night.

A split result -- North Carolina solidly for Barack Obama, Indiana narrowly for Hillary Clinton -- has cheated the party of the defining moment many had hoped for.

But the two states have sent important signals.

For instance:

* Obama is much closer to the nomination. His delegate total was boosted by the combination of the big win in North Carolina and the very-nearly even result in Indiana. Also, the voting patterns suggest that, when all is said and done in June, the senator from Illinois will lead the popular vote. That denies Clinton an appeal she's hoped to have for super delegates.

* Obama does not appear to have been so badly harmed by the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy as many pundits imagined would be the case. Almost half the voters in both Indiana and North Carolina said that the debate about the candidate's former pastor was an "important" factor in the contest. But the senator from Illinois essentially won the sort of places he has been winning and lost the sort of places he has been losing before the Wright controversy stirred up.

* Obama is still having trouble "closing the deal." His win in North Carolina was a comfortable one. But the loss in Indiana was agonizing. The senator needed to win a state where Clinton was presumed to be ahead. That meant he had to take Indiana. It didn't quite happen.

* Clinton did not win where she needed to. She sent husband Bill to North Carolina, hoping he could swing rural white Democrats in a southern state to his side. The former president spent much of the last week in small towns and cities. But Obama still secured more than a third of the white vote, which in combination with his strong African-American vote prevented Clinton from getting close in a state where she really needed to win.

* African-American support for Barack Obama is solidifying. Where Obama won 78 percent of the African-American vote when South Carolina voted in January. Today, in North Carolina he was well over 90 percent. In Indiana, Obama won an even higher percentage of the African-American vote.

* Obama still has a lot of work to do with white working-class voters. The risk to his candidacy has less to do with the nomination race than with the fall. In both North Carolina and Indiana, roughly half of Clinton backers indicated that they would not vote for Obama if he is the Democratic nominee in the fall. Most of the voters in that group told exit pollsters they would cast their ballots for Republican John McCain.

Comments (59)

As a lifelong Democratic voter, I am so disillusioned by the tone of this Democratic primary campaign that I have decided to vote Republican for the first time.

Posted by pontificus at 05/06/2008 @ 8:57pm
nichols...i know you love the doom and gloom, but the indiana primary has yet to be called. clinton 53, obama 47 - its been tightening up steadily - might want to get ready to pull this blog entry...

besides even a slim loss for obama in indy might still cause 50 foot queenies to pause and consider...

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 8:58pm
Posted by pontificus at 05/6/2008

Seriously...humor?

Not your thing. I'd stick with un-founded statements and subject changes when asked for objective evidence.

Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 9:02pm
Posted by Mask at 05/6/2008 | ignore this person

he made a hilarious ha ha hee hee over on nichols last blog entry at euler's expense!

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 9:08pm
Posted by Mask at 05/6/2008

Hey MASK, how about you tell us how Cheney's getting rich off those Halliburton stock options again. You know the ones I' m talking about, the ones he gave to charity?

Posted by pontificus at 05/06/2008 @ 9:09pm
Posted by pontificus at 05/6/2008

You mean AFTER he received his "deferred payment" AFTER Halli won those no-bids in Iraq and started handing out tainted water to our troops?

Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 9:10pm
hilly 52

obama 48

71% reporting!

get ready to pull this, nichols! they didn't call indy for some good reason!

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 9:27pm
Sarcasm is such a lost art...especially on Republicans. Or neo-cons. Or take your pick.

What is clear is that a LOT of healing will have to occur if the Dems want anything near a shot at the White House. It's tragic really, as the congressional majorities are going to be at least comfortable. Some very interesting reversals of the worst of the last thirty years could occur. After we get our economy out of the Canada-like mess it's in now. ( mean Canada of 15 years ago, not now, so don't jump all over me Frosty!)

Posted by yutsano at 05/06/2008 @ 9:27pm
Posted by yutsano at 05/6/2008 | ignore this person

pfft! obama has his second wind. watch the obama tsunami!

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 9:38pm
I have decided to vote Republican for the first time.

Posted by pontificus

i thought you'd be voting PNF.

Tuesday, May 6, 2008 9:44:57 PM

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/06/2008 @ 9:40pm
*i thought you'd be voting PNF.

Tuesday, May 6, 2008 9:44:57 PM

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/6/2008*

I see him as more the NDP sort...oh wait that's me, never mind.

Posted by yutsano at 05/06/2008 @ 9:43pm
HEY NICHOLS! YA KNOW I LOVE YA, BRO, BUT GET READY TO PULL THIS!

or leave it up with an update!

DING DONG!

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 9:43pm
Feel like betting a pint Ibb? It closes but she still pulls it off, possibly even Guamanian proportions.

Posted by yutsano at 05/06/2008 @ 9:46pm
Posted by yutsano at 05/6/2008 | ignore this person

wait, YUT, she's meltinnnng....

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 9:51pm
she's meltinnnng....

Posted by ibbleblibble

that's what happens when a witch pisses on herself.

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/06/2008 @ 9:54pm
Feel like betting a pint Ibb? It closes but she still pulls it off, possibly even Guamanian proportions.

Posted by yutsano at 05/6/2008

shit YUT - if i'm right you can buy me a pint, but i'll be buying you and everyone else one once i've sucked down a couple more...lol...

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 9:55pm
How many of those who reported are indies or GOPers, was operation chaos at work in either state?

Posted by sloper at 05/06/2008 @ 10:04pm
Obama can't close the deal? Meaning he can't win by enough to make people like Nichols too embarrased to keep reporting this race as an open one?

He has to win a state Clinton had a lead in? Why exactly? Do they give special bonus delegates to surprise victories? I know that people think the superdelegates are going to be swayed by stuff like this, but we know that they are going to be faced (if they wait to declare until the convention) with the choice of endorsing the candidate who won the democratic portion of the race or the one who didn't. The idea that they will do the latter just because Obama didn't surprise them (after Wisconsin that is) makes them sound really incredibly stupid.

And Obama didn't close the deal even though he prevented Clinton from getting the win she needed, according to you? So to win he not only needs to prevent Clinton from getting what is necessary for her to win he has to do....what?

As for the Clinton supporters for McCain, it has been known to happen that people in the middle of an argument say things they wouldnt say otherwise. Now of course there are a good number of racist trash like Frank and helen who support Clinton and if this election permanently removes them from the party, so much the better. Gas prices and the government of Iraq are conspiring to bring McCain down anyway.

Posted by Poppolphil at 05/06/2008 @ 10:11pm
How many of those who reported are indies or GOPers, was operation chaos at work in either state?

Posted by sloper at 05/6/2008

BING BING BING!

harold ford was yakking about how an obama/hilly ticket would bring in all the hilly voters - but your point KINDA shoots a hole in that - good observation...

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 10:20pm
Posted by sloper at 05/6/2008

"Operation Chaos" is about Limbaugh trying to convince his listeners...maybe himself...that he and they still MATTER when John McCain will run the GOP.

Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 10:23pm
when John McCain will run the GOP.

Posted by Mask

i can't see that ever happening.

maybe the gop running mccain,

but the other way round.......

naw.

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/06/2008 @ 10:36pm
Still 52-48 with 85% in .. but Gary IN is still outstanding and won't be counted till midnite. This is basically a suburb of Chicago, so I would guess its gonna be a REAL squeaker. As I type, HRC is going on aoubt her "big win" in the state that was to be "Obama's tiebreaker" (and begging for money in the process...)

Posted by leftofcenter at 05/06/2008 @ 10:48pm
Per the Gary, IN website - it lists Gary at a population of 102,000+ and 85% black

Posted by leftofcenter at 05/06/2008 @ 10:50pm
This may, in fact, be more than some sort of silly game this year! Maybe it is more than a zero sum game. Ya think?

Posted by julien38 at 05/06/2008 @ 10:51pm
i bet they've got one voting machine in all of gary.

a dieblood voting machine.....

Tuesday, May 6, 2008 11:00:37 PM

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/06/2008 @ 10:55pm
Tim Russert just reported that in Gary and Indy (where judges ordered some polls to stay open late amid record turnout) that there are still over 200,000 uncounted ballots outstanding - nearly all inner city, predominantly black. I'm calling this one for Obama when the dust settles.....

Posted by leftofcenter at 05/06/2008 @ 11:06pm
Posted by frosty zoom at 05/6/2008

He's pro-stem cell research...he believes in man-made global warming...pro-campaing finance reform....pro-immigration reform....etc., etc.

Except for the war, tax cuts, and abortion...he's certainly no Dubya, despite those being pretty big issues.

And given his recent statement about MAYBE needing to raise taxes to pay for his Health Care Plan, he's willing to "bend" his principles.

None of that make him worth voting for, and it's still "4 more years" and "Bush-44"....but it leaves Limbaugh (and a lot of Righties here) out in the cold....or in the back of the auditorium, losing their previous front row seats!

Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 11:11pm
I'm calling this one for Obama when the dust settles.....

Posted by leftofcenter at 05/6/2008

Doubt it.....51-49 for Her Majesty.

If Obama did win Indiana, Hillary just said it was the "tie-breaker" (claiming Obama said that) and that means she just admitted she can't win and the Money Boys pull the plug.

Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 11:12pm
well,

rush et al. will have a demo congress to rant on about.

Tuesday, May 6, 2008 11:18:38 PM

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/06/2008 @ 11:13pm
pfft! obama has his second wind. watch the obama tsunami!

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/6/2008

Just don't light any matches.... :-0

Posted by ACook at 05/06/2008 @ 11:31pm
the pendeleum swings...

Posted by JOMAMMA

as the clock keeps ticking.....

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/06/2008 @ 11:32pm
ibble and frosty, do you believe helendao and her new disgusting blog friend minnie are assets for hillary? i think they're just the opposite. you two claim you're for barack. if you truly are for barack, do you think you could hold yourselves back from spouting the sexist crap til after the general election? there could be a lot of women reading this blog who are sick and tired of sexist pigs. barack is in no danger of losing my vote. but who knows about other women. i would tell you both to learn how to be real men from barack's example. but that would obviously be futile.

Posted by loveloki at 05/06/2008 @ 11:42pm
loveloki

check.

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/06/2008 @ 11:45pm
91% in - its 51%-49% Indy and Bloomington in, Just Gary to go and its gonna be close....

Posted by leftofcenter at 05/06/2008 @ 11:47pm
Judge Alito spotted with trunk full of Diebolds in Gary - but you'll never hear the corporate media reporting this... (he said making fun of himself.)

Posted by winyahn at 05/07/2008 @ 12:05am
frosty, i should not have been so mean to you about that. i don't dare try to put the address here, (i'm sure it will be broken up) but go to youtube and search for "mad as hell/bitch"

that video should clarify a little more the danger of sexist statements right now.

Posted by loveloki at 05/07/2008 @ 12:05am
loveloki

see the sam cooke thread...

Wednesday, May 7, 2008 12:18:07 AM

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/07/2008 @ 12:13am
GARYGARYGARYGARYGARYGARYGARYGARY Under local practice, all of the cartridges from voting machines in Gary and nearby East Chicago are first collected at the local airport before being driven to the county headquarters to be tallied with the results from the rest of the county...

Mayor: "I just talked to the director out there and they are working like junkyard dogs to get that done as soon as possible. They are taking some time but I told them to do it right. That's what taking the time."

Mayor in MARCH '08: "They are going to point at Indiana and say Hillary Clinton is leading by one point but Gary ain't come in yet"

Posted by winyahn at 05/07/2008 @ 12:14am
winyahn

it's a conspiracy!

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/07/2008 @ 12:21am
Awesome! Gary's Gotham City & the Penguin's gay daughter is back and pissed at dad for melting the icecaps and siding with Gore as a trick to steal a kiss from Tipper...

Posted by winyahn at 05/07/2008 @ 12:42am
Hey.I just dropped by to check on the RCP Polls and chanced upon these Nichols entries and you all. Can't make out if I'm in Alice in Wonderland or One flew Over the Cuckoos Nest.

Since I'm here, I just have to say that I am very concerned about the mental welfare of Jug-eared-octoroon, the delusionary sesquipedalian dummkopf and puckfist, and mihnea, who may actually be in urgent need of an intervention by a soothing, Freudian expert in a white coat to calm her hysteria..

Anyhoo. Big night for Obama. Impressive NC win, almost won Indiana, too. Actually probably would have, had it not been for Op Chaos crossovers. Sure, Hildabeast will claim a huge victory of her 2% worth of 22,439 votes, but the inescapable truth remains tonight's 210,323 more votes for BO than HRC, destroying her bogus popular vote argument, and even more pledged delegates. The soi-disant "inelectable Illinois senator" has shown the Superdelegates that the composed, rational and calm approach to crisis control can triumph over the hysterically pugilistic variety.

Obama has got his groove back.

Time for Titania to exit stage left - the math is insurmountable. Descartes may have said "Je pense, donc je suis", but that was logic. "I'm going to win the nomination, because je pense I should" is not logic, it's egomaniacal fustian fantasy.

Mr Nichols, por favor..."Obama is much closer to the nomination tonight than he was last night.... he will have come reasonably close in Indiana. But not close enough." Says who? You and Hillary? Despite your conservative chaos voters, he trounced her in NC and was 2% behind in IN, a virtual statistical tie. And that was after 4 weeks of intense Obama-bashing by the Clinton-McCain-GOP alliance, dishonorable race-baiting TV ads and a former US President campaigning against him in 50 towns, in addition to his actual opponent's dirty antics. 2% IS closing the deal.

And Obama's nomination was only in question within the strict boundary of Hildabeast's manic denial. I hear her now giving an epic triumph speech on TV, applauding her 2% win and 14% loss..."the result was so close… the fight will go on and I will win the nomination....we are the American people….9/11 (excusez-moi, what's 9/11 got to do with Indiana primary?)….Florida and Michigan"! Of course, she's going to focus her absurd and desperate fight on brazenly trying to move DNC election rules goalposts to suit her selfish ends – an unconcealed attempt to steal the nomination, while flaunting her flawed character; that same Clinton failing that brought down her husband….the belief that rules are for other people to keep, and only Clintons to break. Dare I call it…elitist, as well as dishonest?

Mr. Nichols, the Superdelegates who are leaving Hildabeast or drifting newly to Obama may not agree with your/Hillary and McCain's harsh assessment that Obama can't close the deal. Clinton's lead in Superdelegates has dwindled this week to 14 or 15 – half what it was a month ago. For many, he closed the deal a while ago – he's obviously the superior human and better qualified candidate. It's just that there's a giant white elephant sitting in the middle of the road to the White House, holding up traffic. Wow

Posted by Truthfairy at 05/07/2008 @ 02:58am
Subtract the GOP saboteur crossovers for Hillary in Indiana, and Obama wins by about a point. Time for Edwards, Gore & Carter to stand up tall & bring this to a close, before Billary wreak even more damage.

Posted by sloper at 05/07/2008 @ 07:14am
Posted by sloper at 05/7/2008

So the numbers are actually right? Hillary lost without the GOP crossovers? That has to chap her butt a little.

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/07/2008 @ 08:47am
Wow and Hillary cancelled all of her appearances. This could bode well. She may be preparing a concession speech. It's weird that in her victory speech she was saying that she would help the other candidate run if he won. I thought it was an odd line to put into a "victory" speech. She only won by 1% though jesus.

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/07/2008 @ 08:49am
"Obama is still having trouble "closing the deal." His win in North Carolina was a comfortable one. But the loss in Indiana was agonizing. The senator needed to win a state where Clinton was presumed to be ahead. That meant he had to take Indiana. It didn't quite happen."

It was 50.5 to 49.5...lol!

Posted by danconstan at 05/07/2008 @ 08:58am
mihnea???

20cc of Thorazine will do the trick.

Posted by Mask at 05/07/2008 @ 09:06am
Hillary just lent her campaign 6.4M on top of the 5M. I guess when faced with the reality that she cannot win she has resorted to trying to buy the nomination. I guess the 50M Bill made for those speeches is proving useful!

More generally why is supporting one's campaign for a public office with peronal finance allowed? Someone who can spend 100M of their own money should have a pretty big advanatge (not a knock on Romney)

Posted by danconstan at 05/07/2008 @ 10:30am
Posted by Euler at 05/7/2008 |

The first part was unneeded if he was losing then I would say the same thing. The level headedness is good but you kind of kill the "graciousness" by insulting people before you make the comment. So no what you said isn't gracious it's just recognizing the truth of the situation. Graciousness would have been not bothering to put in the "Read the following for a level of graciousness utterly absent in Obama supporters" part.

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/07/2008 @ 11:50am
Posted by Euler at 05/7/2008

It is nice to see people actually fight it out.

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/07/2008 @ 11:54am
Good bye

Posted by Euler

now, why would you want to do that?

if ms. clinton's ideas are so good, you should fight for those ideas.

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/07/2008 @ 1:00pm
I have a new goalposts for Democrats, a cloture proof senate. its 51-49 atm, with Joementum for the dems, its time to start building that 60-40 Senate. There are a lot of races that will be close this time around, and at the very least if that margin can't be obtained then the fear of God needs to be instilled in those Gop'ers that aren't up for re-election in the Fall. It's about time we get some progress and stop punting, and this is a very real and obtainable goal.

Posted by Tzimisce at 05/07/2008 @ 2:03pm
I feel for the Republicans in a way, I imagine there is a good many of them that feel totally betrayed by Bush and the selling out to the Religious Right. Their challenge is to construct a real platform that does something, because, despite my cynicism, America might not respond to fear this time and might instead respond to "No more GOP."

These xenophobic divide America issues and "value" wedge issues, aren't going to cut it as a party platform. Denying gays rights, ignoring and alienating a booming immigrant population, and voodoo economics just aren't going to cut it anymore.

I'm going to be the first Democrat to say this, and I am being totally honest here, Republicans need to get their acts together because America only works well when the majority is challenged by a loyal opposition. As witnessed by the Bush Co. negligence, yes men and groupthink don't work.

Posted by Tzimisce at 05/07/2008 @ 2:14pm
Tzimisce

but will they DO anything?

well, anything that would benefit the 97% underclass?

Wednesday, May 7, 2008 2:19:29 PM

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/07/2008 @ 2:15pm
Who is they?

Posted by Tzimisce at 05/07/2008 @ 2:24pm
Just don't light any matches.... :-0

Posted by ACook at 05/6/2008

a mighty wind! lol...(great movie, by the way - check it out, good for some yuks...eugene levy and more)

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/07/2008 @ 3:46pm
Posted by loveloki at 05/6/2008 | ignore this person

sexist? like what?

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/07/2008 @ 4:29pm
p.S.: hELLO???!!! wHAT ABOUT A BLACK PRESIDENT IN THE ...WHITE HOUSE.!!! Does the HELL aldredy BEGAIN???!!!...

Posted by mihnea at 05/7/2008

QuACK!?!?!???!$$%% qUacK QUAck QUAckiTY QUACK!!!!*&@($*&* QuackITY QUACK Quack QuaCkityQUAC!!!???!?!?#$&$&

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/07/2008 @ 4:33pm
Who is they?

Posted by Tzimisce

the oft-predicted democractic majority in congress.

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/07/2008 @ 9:26pm
I think that, for the first time in several decades, the voters are paying attention. I listend to the rev. wright's three appearances and, although colorful, there was a substantial amount of truth to what the man had to say. He is, in fact, a good example of what American conscience should be. His only error was not showing appropriate humility and thinking that he was as good as a white pastor, (e.e. if he had been white he would have been deified). By the way, white Catholics would not have voted for Hillary in the general election. Code words by the pope "life begins at conception". Ms. and Mr. Clinton have so alienated the blacks that they would probably have stayed home. The Clinton campaign practically guaranteed that the only viable democratic candidate is Senator Obama. We may also be, thank God, on the edge of a generational shift. there is no telling what the kids will do with their new found power. I just hope that we don't have another Kent, Ohio state incident, although the Sean Bell incident was not very pretty. I hope president Obama does something about police training.

Posted by julien38 at 05/08/2008 @ 10:02am