Dem Scenarios: An End, A Beginning, A Nightmare

posted by John Nichols on 05/06/2008 @ 08:39am

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The race for the Democratic presidential nomination is far more volatile now than it was on January 3, that distant day when hopeful Iowans trooped to their caucuses. And it is a whole lot more volatile than it was on February 19, when Barack Obama's landslide primary win in the classic "swing state" of Wisconsin seemed to confirm his inevitability.

Back at the start of January, the best bet was still that New York Senator Hillary Clinton would be the nominee of a united Democratic party against some deeply dysfunctional Republican like former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney – a northeastern moderate with a record of supporting gay rights and abortion rights that put him dramatically at odds with the sentiments of his party's base voters, a monumental list of personal quirks and fiscal misdeeds, and a snooty style that had Democrats salivating about the prospect of facing him in November.

The alternative bet was that Illinois Senator Obama would ride a wave of faith in the future – dare we recall the word optimism -- that would position the Democrats to transform not just the presidential race but the political culture of a country that was sick and tired of being sick and tired of war and economic inequality.

How easy it all seemed.

And how far Democrats have drifted from what now must seem to many in the party of Roosevelt and Kennedy to have been halcyon days.

Now, with Clinton and Obama locked in what looks to some like a duel to the political death, presumptive Republican nominee John McCain – a war hero with an attractive reputation as a political maverick and a relationship with the media that gives new meaning to the word "cozy" -- is busy buffing his multicultural credentials by posing for pictures with African-American quilters in Alabama and announcing plans to appear in July at the La Raza Annual Convention in San Diego,.

At the same time, the crusty old pol's gleefully reviewing polling data from battleground states that is so favorable -- especially for a recession year -- that even McCain must be pinching himself.

Can the Democrats get their groove back?

Primaries Tuesday in Indiana and North Carolina –- states that, in January, looked certain to be backwaters on the 2008 electoral map – will go a long way toward determining the answer to that question.

The results from these two states, both of which have long histories of voting Republican in fall presidential contests, could well decide the Democrats fate. Despite promises by Clinton and Obama that they are in this for the long haul, the reality is that the race could end this week -- at least for Clinton.

But will it? Or will what many Democrats have come to see as a new form of torture continue for weeks and perhaps months?

Three basic scenarios –- with variations as adventurous as one's political imagination will allow in this definitively ill-defined year –- can reasonably be said to be in play:

1. OBAMA WINS INDIANA AND NORTH CAROLINA. Having taken the hard hits over the past ten weeks – the senator hasn't really had a good day since he won Wisconsin in mid-February -- his appeal proves to be not just resilient but triumphant. The Obama camp's strategy of remaining cool under fire – in order to position the candidate for November -- has proven to be a wise and winning one. The Wright controversy goes into a box and the new narrative of the campaign is that, while the media may be easily distracted, the voters are serious about taking the country in a new direction. Contributions to Clinton slow as "super delegates" swing to Obama –- who already has dozens of "soft" commitments from members of Congress and party leaders who have been waiting for the right moment to "close the deal." The nomination race is effectively over and Clinton begins preparing for a graceful exit – and a new role as co-chair of the Obama for President campaign. (Remember the one rule with regard to the Clintons in American politics: If they don't win, they survive to fight another day.)

2. CLINTON WINS INDIANA AND NORTH CAROLINA. She sweeps the white vote in both states – picking up the support of the overwhelming majority of supposedly "undecided" electors who, in reality, were middle-class "moderates" and even "liberals" whose confidence in Obama was shaken by the controversy surrounding his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. The former first lady narrows Obama's lead among pledged delegates only minimally, but she gets something that is more important than delegates: a serious dialogue in the media and among Democrats about whether the young and relatively inexperienced senator from Illinois is up to the rigors of presidential politicking. That dialogue helps Clinton raise the money she needs to compete seriously in coming primaries, build her popular-vote strength and ultimately make a case to unpledged "super delegates" and perhaps even some Obama backers that she alone can deliver a Democratic victory in November. This is not a pretty, nor an easy, moment for Democrats. But it pushes the party toward a confrontation with the painful prospect that the frontrunner for its nomination might not be a frontrunner in the fall. The pounding on Obama grows fiercer and he faces fundamental choices: Does he shift strategy, go for Clinton's jugular and secure a nomination at great expense to his own "good-guy" image and perhaps his electability? Does he consider a "for-the-good-of-the-party" – and potentially for the good of his own future prospects – reconciliation with Clinton? Or does he call a certain former vice president and open up a conversation about a Gore-Obama ticket?

3. CLINTON AND OBAMA SPLIT INDIANA AND NORTH CAROLINA. Each candidate "scores" a predictable "win" – the New Yorker in an industrialized Middle America state like Ohio; the Illinoisan in a southern state with a large African-American population and a substantial base of college-educated liberals. Both campaigns "spin" their victories. Obama keeps hoping for a "knock-out blow" primary win in a Clinton-friendly state like Kentucky or West Virginia. Clinton starts looking for surprise wins of her own in places like Oregon and Montana. But the formerly unrealistic notion that "this could go all the way to the convention" no longer seems so unrealistic. Talk turns to Clinton strategies to seat delegations chosen in the disputed Michigan and Florida primaries, while the Obama camp parcels out more congressional endorsements. The race gets uglier. There is no end in sight. Everyone goes nuclear as the Democrats confirm that there really is such a thing as "mutually-assured destruction." Talk-radio's Rush Limbaugh celebrates the success of his "Operation Chaos," as organizers of the Democratic National Convention quietly begin to prepare for a convention that might make Chicago in 1968 look like a garden party. And John McCain, never a particularly religious man, begins to count his blessings.

Are there other scenarios? Absolutely. The reason we pay attention to political campaigns is because of their potential to yield unexpected results. This reality has been confirmed again and again since January – just ask "also-ran" John McCain. Or just ask the seers who said that there was no way that May primaries in Indiana or North Carolina would ever matter.

Comments (88)

"Or does he call a certain former vice president and open up a conversation about a Gore-Obama ticket? "

Oh, Geez, Mr Nichols. Now, HSUBFOOLS is going to need some saltpeter!

Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 09:02am
Posted by mihnea at 05/6/2008

BTW, never seen the H.T.O.T.D. get so hysterical.

"HHTOTD", now maybe????

heheh

Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 09:03am
Um, Mihnea, because she has no chance at winning?

She can't win a primary without superdelegate intervention even after starting with over 100 SD's in her pocket, a war chest chock full of cash, name recognition as the former first lady, a former president on the trail with her, two terms in the senate, and a slew of governors in key states....all to be losing to a first term senator.

She's highly intellectual but morally immature. That's why she doesn't have a chance at winning.

Posted by FritztheCat at 05/06/2008 @ 09:06am
Hilary troll of the day - you are desperate, aren't you?

Who voted for the war?

HILARY!

Who is using Rovian campaign strategies?

HILARY!

Who has more ties to corporate lobbyists?

HILARY!

Hilary troll - go back under your bridge!

Posted by Turk33 at 05/06/2008 @ 09:09am
WHY YOU DO NOT LEAVE HER TO WIN??? Marking the nomination of the Democratic Party, all Obama`s speach is try to deform and denigrate Senator Clinton, political and social views, so IMPORTANT NOW for the FUTURE OF THE UNITED STATES!!!! WHY you do not give her ANY CHANCE TO WIN THE NOMINATION FOR DEMOCRATIC PARTY???!!!.. WHY? WHY? WHY? Just give HER A CHANCE TO WIN !!! She has more POLITICAL EXPERIENCE than Mr. Nobody (obama) she DESERVE to SERVE this GREAT NATION PLANS!!! VOTE HILLARY !!!PLS. FOR GOD SEEK WAKE UP AMERICA!!!!...

Posted by mihnea at 05/6/2008

meds is good fer some folk...

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 09:48am
are u that person that was screaming on youttube about brittany speers?

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 09:54am
Well, the Democratic Party blew the last two elections by following media promotion away from the only "GENERAL EELCTION" "GENERAL EELCTION" "GENERAL EELCTION" "GENERAL EELCTION" "GENERAL EELCTION" threat that the GOP faced...that being John Edwards.

DUMBOCRATS will find out this November why Karl Rove wanted Dean or Kerry at the top of the ticket in 2004 and Clinton or Obama at the top of it in 2008 INSTEAD OF John Edwards.

They will find out the hard way, because they won't believe anything until they see it.

Oh, and this election FARCE is playing out exactly the way that I warned DUMBOCRATS of last February 2007. Wright is just the first LAYER. By the time the media/GOP finish with a black man with Hussein in his name, all he's going to have left is black support, but this is what Dumbocrats GOT FOOLED into believing that they wanted...

...oh, and yes, I am black, but I'm not going to run over a cliff just because the rest of the HERD (Democratic majority) is running right along with everyone else to certain disaster.

I've been trying to warn these fools since February 2007. They have no one else to blame for it but themselves and their lack of foresight.

Oh, well. That's what happens when you give the Republicans want they want (Dean or Kerry in 2004, Clinton or Obama in 2008). The top of the ticket is what matters. It's the reason Muskie was the one that Nixon feared instead of McGovern, and the reason that Edwards is the one that Rove feared instead of Kerry, Dean, Clinton or Obama.

Dumbocrats will find out the hard way, just why that was. Not only will Barack Hussein Obama get blown out in November, just like his fellow Illinoisan Adlai Stevenon did to an old war veteran, but his coattails will be so lethal that the Democrats will lose both the House and the Senate in the process. But, again, this is what tthey wanted.

Idiots like "The Nation" and "MoveOn" could have helped John Edwards, but they were afraid of being seen as "STANDING IN THE WAY OF HISTORY" (racist/sexist) by going with the white guy instead of the black/female candidates, so they did like the unions, and basically decided to see if Edwards could GIVE THEM A REASON to come out for him, when they knew that that wasn't going to happen because the media was FOOLING DUMBOCRATS into believing that only two candidates were even running.

The Nation is as much to blame for the disaster ahead as anyone. Thanks for being clueless WIMPS.

Posted by UCW at 05/06/2008 @ 09:58am
General "ELECTION"!!!

God, why do you all have this small freaking window to type in? I can't stand that kind of typo, but this small box makes it harder to catch some mistakes!

E-L-E-C-T-I-O-N

Posted by UCW at 05/06/2008 @ 10:00am
General "ELECTION"!!!

God, why do you all have this small freaking window to type in? I can't stand that kind of typo, but this small box makes it harder to catch some mistakes!

E-L-E-C-T-I-O-N

Posted by UCW at 05/06/2008 @ 10:00am
General "ELECTION"!!!

God, why do you all have this small freaking window to type in? I can't stand that kind of typo, but this small box makes it harder to catch some mistakes!

E-L-E-C-T-I-O-N

Posted by UCW at 05/06/2008 @ 10:03am
Posted by UCW at 05/6/2008 |

Might this be why Edwards has refrianed from backing a candidate ... that he's hoping for a deadlocked convention after one or two ballots, before presenting himself as the compromise winner?

Posted by sloper at 05/06/2008 @ 10:04am
E-L-E-C-T-I-O-N

This small freaking window makes it difficult to catch some mistakes!

Posted by UCW at 05/06/2008 @ 10:04am
E-L-E-C-T-I-O-N

This small freaking window makes it difficult to catch some mistakes!

Posted by UCW at 05/06/2008 @ 10:05am
edwards is not in the race anymore. early on i was kinda hoping for an edwards/obama ticket, but edwards and obama kinda split the same vote - the anti-hillary left-center. but now edwards sits on the sidelines sulking (always a bride's maid, never a bride).

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 10:13am
The Nation is as much to blame for the disaster ahead as anyone. Thanks for being clueless WIMPS.

Posted by UCW at 05/6/2008

how long have you posted here? john nichols was lionizing edwards.

you know why "the nation" backed obama over edwards eventually?

EDWARDS DROPPED OUT OF THE RACE!

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 10:20am
Posted by marybretbrad at 05/6/2008

It's also not out of the "realm of possibility" that McCain's temper might re-emerge and it get caught on YouTube!

Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 10:33am
Posted by marybretbrad at 05/6/2008

The guys dead or wounded in Iraq might have preferred a different outcome...even if it risked not getting their $300 tax rebate.

Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 10:39am
oh boy...

here you stupid schmuks! here's $300 back on yer taxes! now go get yerselves more in debt! its the patriotic thing to do!

here yous stupid cows! heres a $30+/- savings over summer for gas tax! go spend it on...MORE GAS!!!!

see you idiots! we really really care about you!

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 10:42am
Posted by UCW at 05/6/2008

It's too late for you to do your dirty work. N. Carolina is voting today. Edwards is a fine man. What's your agenda?

Posted by Sorelish at 05/06/2008 @ 10:49am
oh man! the truly hilarious thing about the gas tax pandering is this...

schmuko morono (the car title loan class as well as many who SHOULD know better) will say "oooooh! cheapo gas! lets take that trip we always wanted to! hey - i need a candy bar - think i'll putter down to the zippy mart in my suv... i can afford it now!!!"

so in fact john/jane q. moron ends up wasting MORE gas, spending MORE money!!!!!!

hey idiots! vote for the pathetic panderer who thinks you are as idiotic as you seem!

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 11:13am
Which should be great, a real confrontation. On one side, a loudmouthed bully who wants to tear apart the Democratic Party. And on the other side, there's Bill O'Reilly.

Posted by marybretbrad at 05/6/2008 |

thats funny on so many levels. good catch, darin.

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 11:55am
"meds is good fer some folk..."

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/6/2008

IBB, we have some meds that will keep her in a coma if you like.... :-)

Posted by ACook at 05/06/2008 @ 12:13pm
Posted by ACook at 05/6/2008 | ignore this person

ah - now i know why i love you so much...a kindred "dexter" soul...lol

;)

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 12:19pm
WAKE UP AMERICA, WAKE UP PLS.!!!...

Posted by mihnea at 05/6/2008 | ignore this person

i got a much better idea, minny - go back to sleep...

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 12:21pm
Posted by marybretbrad at 05/6/2008

Those ARE some humorous ones, Darin.

Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 12:21pm
Posted by marybretbrad at 05/6/2008

Those ARE some humorous ones, Darin.

Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 12:21pm
MR. OBAMA SHOULD GET ALLIANCE... WITH ...ROBERT MUGABE ...IN ...ZIMBABWE ,. AFTER THAT THIS NATION WILL...CUT... THE ...TAXESSSSSSS!!!...

Posted by mihnea at 05/6/2008

moogahbee! barack HUSSEIN obama (be sure to include his middle name, minny - racists LUV saying his middle name) luvs moogahbee!

yeah - no racism operating with minny off-her-meds operation chaos minion! lmao!

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 12:26pm
ah - now i know why i love you so much...a kindred "dexter" soul...lol

;)

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/6/2008

Ahhhh, if only Dexter could put these candidates out of our misery.

Posted by ACook at 05/06/2008 @ 12:29pm
Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/6/2008

Posted by ACook at 05/6/2008

Gotta love the Dex!

Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 12:40pm
Posted by ACook at 05/6/2008 | ignore this person

needle to the neck...blessed silence....

lol...

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 12:41pm
Posted by mihnea at 05/6/2008 |

just get the hell out of here you limbaugh listening operation chaos racist juju zombie. dont leave angry though - just leave...

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 12:44pm
Actually, ibb, I think juju zombies have free will....a ditto-head, not so much.

Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 12:48pm
Actually, ibb, I think juju zombies have free will....a ditto-head, not so much.

Posted by Mask at 05/6/2008

good point. juju zombies are listed as being intelligent undead...

correction - standard issue brainless zombies...

0 intelligence, programmed by the high blobulant necromancer, rash lungblow to carry out limited, simple, repetitive tasks...

thanks for keepin' it real, MASK.

;)

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 12:54pm
Posted by marybretbrad at 05/6/2008

Definitely some funnies there.

Who the hell is this person and can someone hit them with a wrench. Typing in all caps doesn't make you seem intelligent it just confirms that you are an idiot.

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/06/2008 @ 1:04pm
It's a shame that the intelligence, reasoning, and honesty of Nation contributors is not matched in the slightest by those who comment here. It's really sad.

Posted by smmerino at 05/06/2008 @ 1:13pm
Posted by smmerino at 05/6/2008 | ignore this person

naderite or maccainite?

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 1:15pm
Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/6/2008

If he was a McCainite he would be calling the Nation a socialist rag that should burned.

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/06/2008 @ 1:16pm
SCENARIO 4:

Clinton's so-called post-March 4th wins are sufficiently tarnished by Operation Chaos that no superdelegate is persuaded by Hillary getting Republican votes that we all know she won't get in November.

The very nature of Operation Chaos is to have bored Republicans who no longer have a reason to vote in their primary to help select the WEAKEST Democratic nominee, which in their view is Hillary Clinton.

Posted by Metteyya at 05/06/2008 @ 1:30pm
EULER, try my question again...

WHEN Hillary concedes and asks her supporters to work with her to help elect Obama against McCain....

will you help her...or disobey?

Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 1:31pm
RUSH: Field reports, Operation Chaos, Indiana. That's Ruth Stanley, managing editor of the Post & Mail newspaper in Indiana. Sliwa then says, "Have you had any personal conversations with those that you know have been registered as Republican and their intentions of voting for which candidate in the Democrat primary in Indiana?"

STANLEY: Yes, I have. I talked to a couple of people who are registered Republicans, and they said they're going to pull the Democrat ticket and vote for a Democrat candidate.

SLIWA: And out of those, who will it be?

STANLEY: The one in specific is actually running on the Republican ticket for a local race, and he said if he wasn't running, he would be pulling the Democrat ticket and voting for Hillary.

SLIWA: Wow. So that Operation Chaos, that call from Rush Limbaugh may be well having a big impact in your predominantly Republican area?

STANLEY: Yes, it could very well be.

Posted by Metteyya at 05/06/2008 @ 2:02pm
perfectly suited for a culture-free US.

Posted by Euler at 05/6/2008

i've not read a single word of either of his books and i don't really care. his issue stances are on his website and indeed are not too different from hilly's.

a few points...

1. i've been watching the news coverage way too much now and i honestly cannot remember a single one of them even TRYING to examine ANY candidate's policy stances...

the only thing those useless mouthpieces can do is cover the horse race of the campaign like its some kind of high brow wrastlin talkup or jerry springer fight or reality tv crap. of course the next question is whether the average dumbed down schlob in this country could even sit still and awake long enough if they DID try to tackle the issues...people's average IQ's may have been a lot lower in the past but at least they seemed capable of listening to someone else talk about reasonably complex issues for more than ten minutes before drooling on themselves...

2. issues schmissues! again on "thuh ishoes" the 2 are similar and issues are important...but if candidate X comes up with a bunch of issue stances, then circumstances then change and candidate X is incapable of changing his/her stance - what kind of idiot is that? what is more important by far to me, barring openly stupid/evil stances, is that the candidate has the intelligence, insight, moral character, and humility to admit when he/she is wrong or see when external reality has changed and thereby adjust their stances.

3. what the hell is wrong with a little optimism? the average american is (rightly) so cynical, so beaten down spiritually by the unique pathos of BOTH parties that indeed we desperately NEED realistic hope and optimism in this country and if obama has the charisma and character to elicit optimism and positivity...

CRUCIFY THE BASTARD!!! ABANDON HOPE ALL WHO ENTER!!!!

lol - wow! civilizational suicide!

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 2:08pm
Posted by Euler at 05/6/2008

You obviously have not visited Barack Obama's website and read the voluminous specific policy proposals he has there.

It is Hillar y who is the EMPTY SUIT. She doesn't believe in anything but amassing power for power's sake, and will say and do anything to get that power!

Hillary can't convince intelligent people that she is for the common man when she spent 15 YEARS as a corporate lawyer at the Rose law firm representing union busters like Wal-mart and Tyson Foods, so she deliberately goes after the DUMB VOTE, the un-educated workers who simply do not have the time to read up on Hillary's corporate background to learn that she is NOT ONE OF THEM!

Posted by Metteyya at 05/06/2008 @ 2:08pm
Posted by Euler at 05/6/2008 | ignore this person

burn a flag...

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 2:08pm
When and if Hillary Clinton concedes, I will support Obama.----Posted by Euler at 05/6/2008

Cool...locked away in the Vault!

Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 2:19pm
Posted by Euler at 05/6/200

Actually no I'm not a first time voter. Nice try though.

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/06/2008 @ 2:29pm
When and if Hillary Clinton concedes, I will support Obama.----Posted by Euler at 05/6/2008

Cool...locked away in the Vault!

Posted by Mask at 05/6/2008

probably why barry O is biting his lip and not punching back too hard - better to coast into the nomination without alienating too many clintonite zombies...

damn...i admire that man more every day!

cause i'm sure not pulling my punches with these lying, intelligence insulting, hypocrites and lackwits...

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 2:31pm
Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/6/2008

Willing to give EULIE the bennie of the doubt....but suspect we'll get some "You know, McCain ain't half bad" once Her Majesty shuffles off her nomination coil.

Plus, I think we're getting as many of "Operation: Chaos" nitwits...as we are the FRANK-style HRC Cultists.

Keep tabs on the nicks once the Concession Speech comes and see if any return as GOPers!

Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 2:34pm
I still don't get this empty suit thing and that he has no policy goals. They are right there on his website laid out for you with how he intends to do most of it. So either you can't read or don't want to admit that they are there. Instead you stick to the Hillary line saying he doesn't because you are sheep and can't think for yourselves. If you want to know his policies why don't you go to his website and look at them and how he plans to accomplish them.

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/06/2008 @ 2:36pm
Irrelevant, because while she may not get the nomination, I have a hard time believing that she'll offer any kind of meaningful concession.

You know, "I will support Obama even though I had more poular votes if they had correctly counted Michigan and Florida!"

Posted by Turk33 at 05/06/2008 @ 2:36pm
Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/6/2008

I'm quite amazed at his control of his temper. I would be pissed if this was going down. I am not one to control my sarcastic sense of humor and often say things that I shouldn't because I have no gauge propriety so I would have said something by now that would have pissed everyone off.

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/06/2008 @ 2:38pm
now that would have pissed everyone off.

Posted by Cccomfo1 at 05/6/2008 | ignore this person

he's a great guy, a great man, and possessed of far more self control of his mouth than i. i think he's doing the right thing. i'm sure he fumes and curses when the mikes and cams are off, maybe goes a round or 2 with a punching bag...and good for him.

i just hope that when this is done he takes a week long vacation to relax, play some video games, ignore the world and sleep twelve hours a day...he deserves it.

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 2:44pm
Posted by Euler at 05/6/2008

EULER, you didn't care when Hillary was LYING about "sniper fire"...but Iran and gas prices are "embarassing"?!?!?!?

Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 4:02pm
>>" I think her words on >>Iran and on the recent gas tax issue are an embarrassment - the worst kind of pandering. Nonetheless, this is politics, no?

Posted by Euler at 05/6/2008"<<

No, it is not just politics unless you re talking about the kind of politics that Obama is trying to change with this campaign.

Hillary already has a serious credibility problem which was amplified with her false snipe fire remarks. So when she panders by essentially offering illosry proposals that don't fix anything to try to appeal to particular voters, she continues to turn off many voters who are tired of this kind of politics.

Posted by Metteyya at 05/06/2008 @ 4:28pm
>>" I think her words on >>Iran and on the recent gas tax issue are an embarrassment - the worst kind of pandering. Nonetheless, this is politics, no?

Posted by Euler at 05/6/2008"<<

No, it is not just politics unless you re talking about the kind of politics that Obama is trying to change with this campaign.

Hillary already has a serious credibility problem which was amplified with her false snipe fire remarks. So when she panders by essentially offering illosry proposals that don't fix anything to try to appeal to particular voters, she continues to turn off many voters who are tired of this kind of politics.

Posted by Metteyya at 05/06/2008 @ 4:29pm
Pandering on gas taxes, false statements on sniper fire, and hyperbole on Iran, all show a disturbing "pattern of dishonesty", in which Hillary doesn't have a very high regard for the truth.

It is this sort of "dishonest mindset" that got us into war in Iraq with false claims concerning WMD and the imminence and nature of the threat posed to the United States and the region.

With a dishonest mindset, how could you TRUST Hillary when she tells us about a future threat?

Posted by Metteyya at 05/06/2008 @ 4:37pm
BTW, guess it's too much to hope for Obama winning Indiana (even if by a smidge)...and finally ending this thing?

Just checking out Zogby (don't tell MARYBRET!...heheh)

Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 4:41pm
Do NOT get my hopes up Mask. Though I have the strangest feeling even if Indiana is a draw she presses on until Oregon and South Dakota where she will more than likely get her ass handed to her on a silver platter. SD is a caucus and Oregon is well-educated and tends to go where Washington does, and we are pretty much Obama country south of the 45th. Though it will be cute to see what kind of schtick she tries to pull to appeal to Montanans!

Posted by yutsano at 05/06/2008 @ 5:32pm
Yes, ibb, when this is all done, I do deserve a week-long vacation, and will ignore the world, for a bit.

Posted by Euler at 05/6/2008

lol - brilliant, barry O, brilliant!

lol...

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 5:41pm
mihnea - you have to be a republican or a racist. Those are the only 2 reasons for such stupid remarks.

Posted by lvdragonlady at 05/06/2008 @ 5:48pm
what about us........

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/06/2008 @ 5:56pm
rrrrrr.......

that was in response to ibblelelllle.

rrrrrrrr.

ie + windows * teenybox = rrrrrrrrrrr.

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/06/2008 @ 6:01pm
>>"So what do you think the spin will be when Hillary wins Indiana by single digits and Obama wins NC by single digits?

Yeah, that's right. It'll be a fantastic surge by Hillary instead of another tie that brings her no closer to having more delagates."

Posted by marybretbrad at 05/6/2008 <<

No spin. Just the predictable result based on Operation Chaos that the mainstream press and even those here at The Nation don't want to talk about out of fear of giving Rush Limbaugh credit.

If you know about a national campaign that instructs Republicans to vote for Hillary Clinton as the weakest Democratic nominee, why wouldn't you report on the effect of this campaign?

And, no, john Nichols, "self-described conservatives" from exit polling will NOT give you any indication of the success of Operation Chaos. YOU MUST look at the percentage of Republicans that are voting in the primary and compare it with 2004 AND with the percentage crossing over BEFORE McCain secured the nomination!

Posted by Metteyya at 05/06/2008 @ 6:33pm
That is - look at the percentage of Republicans that crossed over and voted in teh Democratic Primary in 2004 and compare that number with the 2008 number, and then look at the average percentage of Republicans crossing over and voting in the Democratic Primary in the previous contests BEFORE McCain secured the GOP nomination and compare this percentage to the percentage that are crossimg over AFTER McCain secured the nomination.

In Pennsylvania, the Republican crossovers were 10%, whereas prior to McCain securing the nomination, it was 6% or less.

Posted by Metteyya at 05/06/2008 @ 6:53pm
<Posted by UCW at 05/6/2008>

I'm sure you're gone, but liked your post a lot. Esp. the moniker "Dumocrats."

Yep. I've been there for 40+ years watching these clowns make the same stupid decisions again and again. That's why they call it "politics" and not "science."

A year ago I saw this coming. I predicted it. And I predicted the outcome in the fall. It sucks so bad being right about this stuff all the time. Oh well. The burden of being an mouthpiece of the gods, I guess.

But this whole Obama/Clinton scenario reminds me of that train wreck footage from yesteryear when they ran two hulking, obsolete steam locomotives together on the same track before the cut them down for scrap.

choo-choo-choo-choo-choo-CRASH!

choo-choo-choo-choo-choo-CRASH!

choo-choo-choo-choo-choo-CRASH!

Just like this primary season. It's like watching a numbskull hit himself with a hammer repeatedly, unable to figure out what's wrong.

Posted by goyadad at 05/06/2008 @ 6:54pm
As they look over the world's painful panorama of war and terror, some people conclude that it is too late, that no amount of information or activity could possibly stick to the facts and offer only those arguments that can be supported by those facts. But those who take that pessimistic view understand neither B. Hussein Obama nor his current rung on the ladder to total power. Some background is in order: I don't believe that "the truth", "the whole truth", and "nothing but the truth" are three different things. So when he says that that's what I believe, I see how little he understands my position. Debauched, intemperate schnorrers and mendacious skinheads will join forces within a short period of time to strip people of their rights to free expression and individuality. Don't make the mistake of thinking otherwise. Obama does, and that's why this is not wild speculation. This is not a conspiracy theory. This is documented fact.

Obama's most steadfast claim is that individual worth is defined by race, ethnicity, religion, or national origin. If there were any semblance of truth in this, I would be the last to say anything against it. As it stands, however, Obama should think for himself. Let's remember that. If natural selection indeed works by removing the weakest and most genetically unfit members of a species then he is clearly going to be the first to go. Obama is entirely versipellous. When he's among plebeians, Obama warms the cockles of their hearts by remonstrating against sesquipedalianism. But when Obama's safely surrounded by his operatives, he instructs them to combine, in a rare mixture, bestial cruelty and an inconceivable gift for lying. That type of cunning two-sidedness tells us that it's easy for armchair philosophers to theorize about Obama and about hypothetical solutions to our Obama problem. It's an entirely more difficult matter, however, when one considers that his primary goal is to retard the free and natural economic development of various countries' indigenous population. All of his other objectives are secondary to this one supreme purpose. That's why you must always remember that Obama has planted his hired goons everywhere. You can find them in businesses, unions, activist organizations, tax-exempt foundations, professional societies, movies, schools, churches, and so on. Not only does this subversive approach enhance Obama's ability to heat the cauldron of terror until it boils over into our daily lives but it also provides irrefutable evidence that he has repeatedly been spotted challenging all I stand for. When questioned about that, he either denies any knowledge of it or offers unbelievable and ludicrous explanations that only a negligent lumpenproletariat could believe.

Doesn't Obama ever get tired of calling everyone a homicidal evildoer? He has, on a number of occasions, expressed a desire to hurt others physically or emotionally. On all of these occasions, I submitted to the advice of my friends, who assured me that we must test the assumptions that underlie his diatribes. Only then can a society free of his profligate indiscretions blossom forth from the roots of the past. And only then will people come to understand that he can get away with lies (e.g., that a plausible excuse is a satisfactory substitute for performance) because the average person cannot imagine anyone lying so brazenly. Not one person in a hundred will actually check out the facts for himself and discover that Obama is lying. Thus, in summing up, we can establish the following: 1) Time has only reinforced that conviction, and 2) reason, not make-believe, is the best way to deal with the real evils of our world.

Posted by Jug_Earred_Octoroon at 05/06/2008 @ 6:57pm
As they look over the world's painful panorama of war and terror, some people conclude that it is too late, that no amount of information or activity could possibly stick to the facts and offer only those arguments that can be supported by those facts. But those who take that pessimistic view understand neither B. Hussein Obama nor his current rung on the ladder to total power. Some background is in order: I don't believe that "the truth", "the whole truth", and "nothing but the truth" are three different things. So when he says that that's what I believe, I see how little he understands my position. Debauched, intemperate schnorrers and mendacious skinheads will join forces within a short period of time to strip people of their rights to free expression and individuality. Don't make the mistake of thinking otherwise. Obama does, and that's why this is not wild speculation. This is not a conspiracy theory. This is documented fact.

Obama's most steadfast claim is that individual worth is defined by race, ethnicity, religion, or national origin. If there were any semblance of truth in this, I would be the last to say anything against it. As it stands, however, Obama should think for himself. Let's remember that. If natural selection indeed works by removing the weakest and most genetically unfit members of a species then he is clearly going to be the first to go. Obama is entirely versipellous. When he's among plebeians, Obama warms the cockles of their hearts by remonstrating against sesquipedalianism. But when Obama's safely surrounded by his operatives, he instructs them to combine, in a rare mixture, bestial cruelty and an inconceivable gift for lying. That type of cunning two-sidedness tells us that it's easy for armchair philosophers to theorize about Obama and about hypothetical solutions to our Obama problem. It's an entirely more difficult matter, however, when one considers that his primary goal is to retard the free and natural economic development of various countries' indigenous population. All of his other objectives are secondary to this one supreme purpose. That's why you must always remember that Obama has planted his hired goons everywhere. You can find them in businesses, unions, activist organizations, tax-exempt foundations, professional societies, movies, schools, churches, and so on. Not only does this subversive approach enhance Obama's ability to heat the cauldron of terror until it boils over into our daily lives but it also provides irrefutable evidence that he has repeatedly been spotted challenging all I stand for. When questioned about that, he either denies any knowledge of it or offers unbelievable and ludicrous explanations that only a negligent lumpenproletariat could believe.

Doesn't Obama ever get tired of calling everyone a homicidal evildoer? He has, on a number of occasions, expressed a desire to hurt others physically or emotionally. On all of these occasions, I submitted to the advice of my friends, who assured me that we must test the assumptions that underlie his diatribes. Only then can a society free of his profligate indiscretions blossom forth from the roots of the past. And only then will people come to understand that he can get away with lies (e.g., that a plausible excuse is a satisfactory substitute for performance) because the average person cannot imagine anyone lying so brazenly. Not one person in a hundred will actually check out the facts for himself and discover that Obama is lying. Thus, in summing up, we can establish the following: 1) Time has only reinforced that conviction, and 2) reason, not make-believe, is the best way to deal with the real evils of our world.

Posted by Jug_Earred_Octoroon at 05/06/2008 @ 6:58pm
There are some comments I need to make regarding Hillary 'The Lizard Queen" Clinton. It is requisite, even in this summary sketch, to go back a few years to see how the public is like a giant that Clinton has blindfolded, drugged, and gagged. This giant has plugs in his ears and Clinton leads him around by the nose. Clearly, such a giant needs to find the common ground that enables others to reinforce what is best in people. That's why I feel obligated to notify the giant (i.e., the public) that Clinton's a financial predator who preys on the elderly, the gullible, and the vulnerable. She seeks their assets to support her own lavish lifestyle. Keep that in mind while I state the following: An armed revolt against Clinton is morally justified. However, I allege that it is not yet strategically justified.

I would like to give you an example of how quixotic Clinton can be. Clinton has admitted that she intends to traffic in our blood, birthright, and security. Okay, that may have been a particularly bald-faced and unsubtle example but I'll tell you what we need to do about all the craziness Clinton is mongering. We need to inculcate in the reader an inquisitive spirit and a skepticism about beliefs that Clinton's allies take for granted. Listen closely and in the distance you can hear the ring of Liberty's bell calling gallant sons and noble daughters to reinforce the contentions of all reasonable people and confute those of jackbooted, bloody-minded primates. If Clinton had her way, schools would teach students that her plaints provide a liberating insight into life, the universe, and everything. This is not education but indoctrination. It prevents students from learning about how now that I've been exposed to Clinton's causeries I must admit that I don't completely understand them. Perhaps I need to get out more. Or perhaps throughout history, there has been a clash between those who wish to challenge Clinton to defend her inveracities or else to change them and those who wish to deflect attention from her unwillingness to support policies that benefit the average citizen. Naturally, Clinton belongs to the latter category.

Even Clinton's votaries couldn't deal with the full impact of Clinton's views. That's why they created "Clinton-ism," which is just a scary excuse to alter, amend, abridge, and censor the record to point the finger of responsibility at others. The fault, dear Clinton, is not in your stars but in yourself. The ultimate aim of her accusations is to restructure society as a pyramid with Clinton at the top, Clinton's partisans directly underneath, contumacious, salacious casuists beneath them, and the rest of at the bottom. This new societal structure will enable Clinton to spoon-feed us her pabulum, which makes me realize that we must solve the problems that are important to most people. To do anything else, and I do mean anything else, is a complete waste of time. Okay, I've vented enough frustration. So let me end by saying that all Hillary 'The Lizard Queen" Clinton wants is to undermine liberty in the name of liberty.

Posted by Jug_Earred_Octoroon at 05/06/2008 @ 7:09pm
Okay, Jug. You officially killed off this thread.

Ouch.

Posted by goyadad at 05/06/2008 @ 7:41pm
Posted by marybretbrad at 05/6/2008

Never seen somebody so bent out of shape about...a POLLING COMPANY!?!?!?

What? Did they show that 80% of Americans accept man-made global warming or something?

If so...too bad...so does McCain!

Posted by Mask at 05/06/2008 @ 7:43pm
"contumacious, salacious casuists beneath them" <Posted by Jug_Earred_Octoroon at 05/6/2008>

Why don't you say what you mean-- "lirty diars" as they say on The Capitol Steps.

Heheh.

Posted by goyadad at 05/06/2008 @ 7:46pm
"Casuitical sophists! Sophistic Casuists! Stop with your confabulated prevarications that you so casuistically confabulate with your sophistic twistic megalomaniacal incantatory inimicabilities! Dagnabbit!"

Is that sufficient sample of Octoroon poltroonery?

Because I can go on . . . "Nay, an thou'lt rant, I'll mouth as well as thou."

Posted by goyadad at 05/06/2008 @ 7:56pm
J_E_O, Using a lot of big words is no substitute for actually making sense.

Posted by Guiles at 05/06/2008 @ 8:04pm
Okay I'm not alone in saying what the Hades was that? Throwing out missives on both sides yet offering zero evidence of your assertions is called speculation at best and bloviating at worse. For that guy I call the latter.

Oh and last I saw Obama was leading in NC by 20+ points. The night is young but still...

Posted by yutsano at 05/06/2008 @ 8:11pm
Posted by Jug_Earred_Octoroon at 05/6/2008 | ignore this person

well quackity quack quack! look at you!

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 8:12pm
durn tootin!

Posted by Benchrest at 05/06/2008 @ 8:13pm
<Posted by Guiles at 05/6/2008>

Besides, G., I think that Octopoltroon has cribbed most of his verbiage from a Janet Dailey novel I have right here on my shelf:

". . . her full, contumacious breasts swelled beneath her blouse. His heavy, salacious breath hung near her ear, promising forbidden blisses that ungulated her desire . . ."

"Mmm-ooo-uhh she moaned. Don't you think we should get back to that policy statement, Bill."

"No, honey. We've got some of the people's business to take care of first. Good thing our friend Lefty is here to handle the brief for us, eh Hill?"

Heheh.

Posted by goyadad at 05/06/2008 @ 8:17pm
"contumacious breasts swelled "

Posted by goyadad at 05/6/2008 | ignore this person

contumacious...mmmm...

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 8:54pm
Posted by Euler at 05/6/2008

"Time for this country to finally pass from the scene - its a cancer on the world."

Posted by marybretbrad at 05/6/2008

"Hey Euler, you should send that into the Obama camp for a campaign slogan: "Time for this country to finally pass from the scene – it is a cancer on the world." Vote Obama!"

How dare you question Euler's patriotism!

Posted by pontificus at 05/06/2008 @ 8:55pm
How dare you question Euler's patriotism!

Posted by pontificus at 05/6/2008

lol! that was funny! i told him to just go burn a flag...

Posted by ibbleblibble at 05/06/2008 @ 9:02pm
Barring another gaffe by Senator Obama, he is the nominee. HRC might be willing to sacrifice the remainder of her career to be his running mate but if I were her I would not do so - without her the ticket goes down to defeat and once again we have turned sure victory into laughable defeat. This time though I'm not buying the t-shirt.

http://strictlyanecdotal.com/2008/04/24/tuesday-night-somewhere-in-the-o ngoing-analysis-of-the.aspx

Posted by LCSusan at 05/06/2008 @ 9:12pm
Mary.. Are you really proud that Bush Won in 2000..?? you seem intelligent on the surface but seem to have a blind spot with common sense... 3000+ dead 40k+ wounded in a quagmire that keeps increasing pressure on oil prices... Economy IN THE TANK (again, due to oil and the lack of caring about the dollars endless slip to the euro)... I could go on... You really think 4 more years of neo-con republican mismanagement is a good idea..?? come on.. GET A GRIP... The "KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS' are fudged ALL THE TIME ... say it with me people 'DEEP RECESSION'... THANKS 'W'.. or can we blame this on Clinton too somehow.. BE proud staunch republican soldiers... W really put on a show for his sad 8 years in office.. good job.. And 27% approval (lowest In HISTORY) .. hows that for a poll number.. (dont believe that one either...it cant be true , can it ??) lol...mindless zombies... MUST VOTE REPUBLICAN...MUST VOTE REPUBLICAN...)

Posted by Vvf1969 at 05/06/2008 @ 9:30pm
Obama supporter here...

Hillary is wise not to step out - just in case Barack self destructs or something damning comes up. If Hillary is nominated, I'd vote for here in a heartbeat. More important than any other reason why, are two words - Supreme Court.

I also think the vile, denigrating blog posts all over the internet that trash one or the other Democratic candidates were written by PR firm employees hired by the RNC.

Posted by enkid at 05/06/2008 @ 11:20pm
Hilary !! No War !! Barak !! No War !! Hilary !! No War !! Barak !! No War !! Hilary !! No War !! Barak !! No War !! Hilary !! No War !! Barak !! No War !! Hilary !! No War !! Barak !! No War !! Hilary !! No War !! Barak !! No War !! Hilary !! No War !! Barak !! No War !! Hilary !! No War !! Barak !! No War !! Hilary !! No War !! Barak !! No War !! Hilary !! No War !! Barak !! No War !! Hilary !! No War !! Barak !! No War !! Hilary !! No War !! Barak !! No War !!

Posted by alirup at 05/07/2008 @ 12:26am
alirup

are you sure?

Posted by frosty zoom at 05/07/2008 @ 12:29am
The Problem with the Democratic Party, speaking as a used-to-vote-republican-libertarian, is that the Democratic's nominating process produces the worst possible canidate. I voted for whatshisass last election; first time I ever pulled the lever for a Dem. You all hound the Great Joe Liberman out of your party, and then expect to win the general election? Not that the Republicans' nominee is any better, but at least they don't throw Leaders overboard.

Posted by JSki at 05/07/2008 @ 01:50am
I mean really, Kerry? Mondale? Dukakis? 2004 was a gimme, how the hell did bubba win another term? I even voted for Notbush. Field a better candidate and you could actually win

Posted by JSki at 05/07/2008 @ 02:16am
last thought: yeah, Gore got screwed.

Posted by JSki at 05/07/2008 @ 02:22am
What if there was a gas tax holiday and Exxon-Mobil et al, decided to raise the price to coincide? Not to hard to imagine considering that they will stand to sell more gas at this time and demand will be highest.

Posted by koroviev at 05/08/2008 @ 04:36am