Hoosiers for Obama

ELKHART, INDIANA--It's three days before the presidential election and I've just arrived in Indiana, a state George W. Bush won by 21 points on 2004 and 16 points in 2000. It's now considered a top battleground state, with polls showing a dead heat between Obama and McCain. That's absolutely remarkable for a state that hasn't gone Democratic since 1964 and only voted for a Democratic presidential candidate three times in the 20th century.

Obama targeted Indiana heavily during the Democratic primary in May, which he lost narrowly to Hillary Clinton, and has kept his wide-reaching campaign infrastructure in place since then. He's visited the state 48 times during the Democratic primary and after (compared to just two trips for McCain) and drew 35,000 people to a rally in Indianapolis last week and 40,000 to an event in Gary last night. Suffice to say, Hoosier Democrats have never seen such enthusiasm for a Democratic candidate in their lifetime. "Obama just kept campaigning here, his volunteers are very active and they are everywhere," says Brian Vargus, a professor of political science at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis. Democrats have shattered early voting records, holding a 32 percent lead among those who've already voted.

I'm staying in Elkhart County, in Northern Indiana near South Bend, bordering Michigan. Bush won 70 percent of the vote here in 2004. Yet Obama beat Hillary Clinton by 18 points in the primary and his campaign believes they can improbably flip the county blue. "Elkhart is a real key county for us," says Obama's Indiana Communications Director Jonathan Swain. "It's traditionally pretty Republican but we think we've got a good chance of winning it."

Elkhart, like many places in America, has fallen on hard times. The city of Elkhart, population 52,700, is known as the "RV Capital of the World." Yet in the past year Monaco Coach has closed three manufacturing plants in the area, laying off 1,400 workers. The unemployment rate has climbed to over 10 percent.

The economic downturn has given Obama an opportunity to make inroads in a place national Democrats normally bypass. Still, Indiana remains pretty conservative, at least culturally, (one version of the state's license plate reads "In God We Trust") and there are a lot of McCain-Palin signs around Elkhart. I accompanied two Obama volunteers who went door-to-door this afternoon in nearby Dunlap, and the majority of doors they hit belonged to McCain supporters, even though they were on lists generated by the Obama campaign. Other Obama volunteers reported similar stories.

Democrats never quite know who's with them or against them in Indiana, to paraphrase W. A woman with an Obama-Biden pin on her jacket told me that a cashier at the grocery store whispered to her, "I'm voting for Obama." But it's not always easy to be an outspoken Obama supporter here. Obama yard signs keep disappearing; my hosts--the parents of a friend from college who've been volunteering for Obama since the primary--have seen three signs stolen in the past week. (It doesn't hurt that local law enforcement, I'm told, are solidly behind McCain.) It will be interesting to see how the contrasts between fired up Obama supporters and reliably Republican voters plays out over the next few days.

I'll be traveling to South Bend tomorrow, the Democratic leaning, heavily Catholic home of Notre Dame. Interviews with local politicians, volunteers and average Joes (though no plumbers) to follow.

Comments (21)

1. RCP (realclearpolitics.com) has GEORGIA...

   and freakin' ARIZONA...

   as "toss-ups"!?!?!??!?

   If even slightly true, McCain is deep s**t in the true battlegrounds.

   If VERY true, the man just set a new rule for Presidential runs...

   don't have a Scots-Irish surname!

   "McCain"....."McGovern"!

   Posted by Maskdelta at 11/01/2008 @ 9:28pm

2. Good luck in Hoosier land, Ari!

   I have McCain by 2, but Obama's regression line still trends above McCain's, so there could be an upset there.

   With projected wins in VA, NC, OH, FL, CO, NM, and NV - all formerly red states - even if he loses in Indiana there will still be a dramatic shift in the electoral map.

   Posted by Metteyya at 11/01/2008 @ 9:32pm

3. Indiana and North Carolina are probably gonna be red come Tue night....

   But you're still looking at a landslide.

   LEFT LEFT LEFT LEFT LEFT LEFT LEFT LEFT

   Posted by bleedingheart at 11/01/2008 @ 9:45pm

4. Remember all you NASCAR fans ....drive fast, turn LEFT.

   I'll be helping out tomorrow in SW Indiana for a GOTV push.

   GObama

   Posted by leftofcenter at 11/01/2008 @ 10:21pm

5. Posted by bleedingheart at 11/01/2008 @ 9:45pm

   IS that you, FRANK?

   heheh

   Posted by Maskdelta at 11/01/2008 @ 10:27pm

6. IS that you, FRANK?

   heheh

   Posted by Maskdelta at 11/01/2008 @ 10:27pm

   Where DID Frank go anyway?

   I see Indiana going just like it did in the primary: close but in the end it's Grandpa's. I think however at this point it's small solace. Now if Grandpa loses North Dakota...

   Posted by yutsano at 11/01/2008 @ 10:53pm

7. Posted by yutsano at 11/01/2008 @ 10:53pm

   Oh, sure...unlikely an Obama victory...

   but it puts the skeer into McCain and the Repubs anyway....so that's funny and has some merit I suppose!

   heheh

   Posted by Maskdelta at 11/01/2008 @ 11:07pm

8. I have a friend who WAS a NASCAR fan.

   He said once they let the non-union Toyotas race...F'em.

   Posted by bleedingheart at 11/01/2008 @ 11:20pm

9. but it puts the skeer into McCain and the Repubs anyway....so that's funny and has some merit I suppose!

   heheh

   Posted by Maskdelta at 11/01/2008

   The fact that Grandpa has to play defense just about everywhere is greatly amusing to me. I still honestly wonder even now if he's going to carry Arizona. I think it's entirely possible that if Obama turns the screws and the Mormons get a good reminder of what Grandpa did to their prodigal son Romney it MIGHT just swing Obama's way. Wishful thinking more than anything but the fact that it's even a possibility must be giving Tucker Bounds indigestion AND nightmares.

   Posted by yutsano at 11/01/2008 @ 11:44pm

10. ha ha ha ha ha:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bh9BmNuqeiQ

    ha ha ha ha ha!

    Posted by frosty zoom at 11/02/2008 @ 02:32am

11. ha ha ha ha ha!

    Posted by frosty zoom at 11/02/2008 @ 02:32am

12. That was sweet, FZ. Thanks for the link. The accompanist even got a kiss!

    Posted by A_Pax_On_Your_Houses at 11/02/2008 @ 07:51am

13. " The unemployment rate has climbed to over 10 percent."

    Elkhart must be part of Europe. Only Europe has such numbers.... until the end of the Bush presidency.

    Posted by crabwalk at 11/02/2008 @ 09:03am

14. O needs Florida, Pennsylvania. Ohio would certainly help but looks tough. He can afford to lose IN if he take FL and Penn.

    Rassmussen has Obama at 260, pretty solid. He only needs to pick u 10 more, whereas McCain needs 110. that's a tough road to Jerusalem through Baghdad.

    Posted by crabwalk at 11/02/2008 @ 09:25am

15. George Will has Obama at 378.

    Posted by crabwalk at 11/02/2008 @ 09:42am

16. go to http://www.270towin.com/ and run some simulations ..... I've done about 20 and have yet to generate a McSame wins scenario

    Posted by leftofcenter at 11/02/2008 @ 10:18am

17. What most people say in public and what they do in the privacy of the voting booth are two different things. I personally think there are going to be a lot of Republican's voting for Obama when no one is watching. So many are unhappy with McCain's pick for VP! He couldn't have done worse if he had tried! She was picked to get the religious right on board. But, she is turning off the moderates in the party!

    Posted by ganddw42 at 11/02/2008 @ 10:28am

18. Wow, Obama is literally for the average American. The real-life Average American, the nation's most statistically average man or woman found after a long non-partisan search, has come out for Obama, according to the search's website: http://www.theaverageamerican.com

    Posted by worldly at 11/02/2008 @ 10:48am

19. Yeah, surprise, the average US American citizen sometimes takes a while to rap its head around the new con repub circular dic' logic, but when it does...

    "Punish success"-- means one succeeds yet not really be successful even though one's making over 1/4 mil a year, yet still not want to contribute or support that which sustains the opportunity to accomplish the success...

    Clearly sounds to anyone with a logical mind that the new con repubs are pushing the idea of punishing the USA by succeeding in 'using' the USA for profit and not contributing to the USA; our great nation that sustains the environment for everyone's success: its their creed of GREED...er, want that we be blood suckers too?

    Oh and we all get it.

    And the polls will show it too.

    I'm still enjoying a look at how Obama/Biden can hit up from 396 to 409 EV.

    Add it up yourself:

    http://www.pollster.com/

    Posted by hsuBfools at 11/02/2008 @ 11:28am

20. Posted by crabwalk at 11/02/2008 @ 09:25am

    Obama will definitely break 375, and I think he could possibly break the 400 mark. The only problem he faces is in the spread if Democrats let up because they think it is all a done deal.

    Posted by srjenkins at 11/02/2008 @ 1:18pm

21. I'm fairly sure that as excited as the Obama/Biden voting public are that it's most likely the repubs that don't care all that much for McPalin will be the ones pulling out per lack of excitement.

    Not even their viagra girl is helping in that department...

    Posted by hsuBfools at 11/02/2008 @ 4:13pm