McCain Puts All on PA

Remember how Rudy Giuliani put all his chips on Florida during the GOP primary? That didn't work out so well, but John McCain seems to be doing the same thing with Pennsylvania.

With the Obama campaign locking up blue states and moving deeper into former Bush territory (Obama's winning, tied or within striking distance in Iowa, New Mexico, Virginia, Florida, Nevada, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina and Indiana), the McCain campaign views Pennsylvania as its last remaining hope for a game changer.

But will McCain fare any better than Rudy did? Not likely. The latest polls from the Keystone state show Obama leading McCain by anywhere from eight to fifteen points. Jonathan Martin of the Politico reported that "McCain backers in the state, while conceding they have ground to make up, believe their deficit is at least half that."

Martin lays out the keys to victory for McCain:

If McCain can drive margins in western and central Pennsylvania like Hillary did in the primary, win the northeast part of the state, hold down losses in the Philly suburbs and, with the help of ethnic white wards, hold down margins in the city of Philly, he could be competitive.

That's a lot of ifs, especially since Obama is likely to get a big turnout in Philly and its highly populated, increasingly Democratic-leaning suburbs. (I reported from PA's Bucks County in April about Republican voters breaking for Obama during the primary in "Pennsylvania's 'Obamicans.'")

Hillary placed all her hopes on beating Obama in Pennsylvania, but by the time she won the state she was so far behind in delegates that it didn't matter. McCain could find himself in a similar electoral predicament. Obama can prevail without Pennsylvania, so long as he wins Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia and Florida and holds all the other Kerry states. That scenario, which I just projected on the addictive site 270towin.com, has Obama losing Nevada, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina and Indiana, all states in which he currently has a decent shot or better. Losing Pennsylvania would make Obama's path more difficult, but certainly not impossible.

Even if the polls narrow a bit, Obama has multiple paths to victory. McCain has only one.

Comments (27)

1. "Obama's wining"

   isn't that what socialists always do?

   Posted by frosty zoom at 10/21/2008 @ 4:42pm

2. What a stupid "strategy"!

   Even if McCain wins PA, and that is a BIG if, losing Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, Missouri, North Carolina, and Florida means OBAMA MANDATE.

   With this PA "strategy", maybe McCain is conceding the race and secretly endorsing Obama like his "living hero" Colin Powell.

   No strategist - worth paying - who is looking at the same electoral map as everyone else would conclude that McCain should focus on PA at this point in the race.

   Posted by Metteyya at 10/21/2008 @ 5:12pm

3. If I were a McCain strategist, and had to focus on only one or two states, I would focus on Ohio and Florida. If McCain loses either of these Bush 2004 states, he is finished.

   And even if he wins there, An Obama win in "either" VA, CO or MO with his current projected win in IA, puts him over the top, and I suspect he will win all 3 and even more red states like NM, NV, and NC.

   Also, look for surprise Obama wins in North Dakota and Montana.

   Posted by Metteyya at 10/21/2008 @ 5:30pm

4. Again, I like North Carolina for an upset.

   Sure, it's "Jesse Helms country"...but it's seen a HUGE drop in jobs outside of Raleigh and Charlotte and though the "I ain't voting for no colored Commie" attitude is still out there...

   a lot of folks might be more concerned with losing their house or their jobs, than what color the President is.

   If Obama can win NC...McCain can have Pennsylvania. The EC counter-balance of that (as well as obviously winning Virginia, Florida, "all the Kerry states", etc.) would wipe out any pick-up from winning PA.

   And that's if you think Pennsylvanians are more racist than North Carolinians.

   Posted by Maskdelta at 10/21/2008 @ 5:58pm

5. Ok, so what if Obama only gets 396 ECV...

   http://www.pollster.com/

   Posted by hsuBfools at 10/21/2008 @ 6:11pm

6. Ouch:

   http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/USAT_Gallup_101408.htm

   I say McPalin is not only climbing up hill, they're oblivious to the avalanche coming down right in front of them.

   Posted by hsuBfools at 10/21/2008 @ 6:25pm

7. Hmmm. No posts from the dark side yet. Are they sleeping?

   Posted by jackwells at 10/21/2008 @ 6:44pm

8. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ is the most addictive. I'm spending way too much to my time there...

   Posted by lurky at 10/21/2008 @ 8:01pm

9. McCain Puts All on PA

   posted by Ari Berman on 10/21/2008 @ 4:12pm

   We've got McCheney right where we want him.

   Hard-scrabbled PA, land of O'Hillary and the Bidenator.

   RCP Average 10/11 - 10/20 -- -- 51.7 40.7 Obama +11.0

   Posted by winyahn at 10/21/2008 @ 9:00pm

10. Oooops she did it again .... Palin popped for using state money to fly her family and hotel rooms while Governor

    http://tinyurl.com/6rstsn

    LOL ... but she'll claim she did "nothing wrong" of course...

    Posted by leftofcenter at 10/21/2008 @ 9:14pm

11. When Palin amended her children's expense reports, she listed a role for the two girls at the function -- "to draw two separate raffle tickets."

    BINGO!

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/21/2008 @ 9:28pm

12. and htis is the man we want as president? Mccain is so out of touch!

    OBAMA!

    Posted by miocid31 at 10/21/2008 @ 9:42pm

13. happy, happy, happy.....

    por favor.

    Posted by frosty zoom at 10/21/2008 @ 10:21pm

14. Also, look for surprise Obama wins in North Dakota and Montana.

    Posted by Metteyya at 10/21/2008 @ 5:30pm

    Hey, don't rule out my former home state of Nebraska, either. We're not all Maasches!

    The state divides its electoral congressional districts. Palin has already had to visit Omaha to shore up support in that district and Hillary visited Omaha today. Personally, I think the congressional district home to Lincoln is more likely to vote Obama than Omaha - Omaha has a huge conservative Catholic suburban population whereas lincoln has all the "liberal University" types.

    If both districts go Obama, ther's even a chance the 2 electoral votes for the entire state would go to him as well since those 2 congressional districts are home to more than a million people (nebraska has fewer than 2 million total).

    Its a long shot, to be sure, but the Republicans felt it was necessary to send Palin there, so things can't be that secure for McPain in the Corn state.

    Posted by bjkron at 10/21/2008 @ 10:24pm

15. Palin popped for using state money to fly her family and hotel rooms while Governor.

    Posted by leftofcenter at 10/21/2008 @ 9:14pm

    Well lets' Paganize!

    Using state money to fly her family and hotel rooms while Governor of the State of Alaska. Yes, OK... but Alaskan money is American money. To use American money is American. To not use American money is not anti-American. Ergo you betcha, she's not anti-American;

    She's a patriot for using state money to fly her family and hotel rooms while Governor.

    Posted by winyahn at 10/21/2008 @ 10:28pm

16. Palinize!

    Posted by winyahn at 10/21/2008 @ 10:29pm

17. Posted by HAPPYLonghorn

    ...more like HAPPYvista

    Posted by Malcontent at 10/22/2008 @ 12:32am

18. HAPPYLonghorn

    Wouldn't HAPPYLonghorns be more apt? As I recall "Old Scratch" was often depicted sporting a pair.

    Posted by chaoszen at 10/22/2008 @ 12:57am

19. It's bull, er-- a bull.

    Posted by hsuBfools at 10/22/2008 @ 01:06am

20. McCain must be counting on retaining the formerly red/now battleground states. Maybe they're hoping for a "Bradley effect" to lower Obama's numbers.

    This theory is being brought up alot on tv, but Democratic pundits claim that this is not the case in this race.

    Also, as a sidebar, in re: Race....Pill-popping fat-boy, Rush Limbaugh, claimed that Collin Powell's endorsement of Obama was racially motivated.

    Posted by koroviev at 10/22/2008 @ 01:07am

21. And of course, BHusseinO "Puts All on" ACORN in all the `interesting' states!

    Why The Messiah, The Most Merciful, The One needs to so openly cheat in so many states?

    Posted by HAPPYLonghorn at 10/21/2008 @ 10:19pm

    Happy, If you really believe this I have some more for you.

    It was me. I was the second shooter on the grassy knoll who shot Kennedy. I also have the Lindberg baby buried in my back garden with Jimmy Hoffa. I also force fed Marilyn Monroe with the sleeping tablets the night she died. Obviously I had to use a time machine to do all this because it all happened before I was born, but that wasn't a problem as my spaceship came pre-equipped.

    I also have a very picturesque bridge available for sale in London. Make me an offer...

    Posted by audacity at 10/22/2008 @ 04:17am

22. Posted by frosty zoom at 10/21/2008 @ 9:28pm

    Posted by winyahn at 10/21/2008 @ 10:28pm

    Oh ... I see. A new state of matter allows Palin to create transparent bullshit. Its all very scientific.

    Posted by leftofcenter at 10/22/2008 @ 06:43am

23. Why The Messiah, The Most Merciful, The One needs to so openly cheat in so many states?----Posted by HAPPYLonghorn at 10/21/2008 @ 10:19pm

    Once again, HAPP is quoting his mentor Rush on that "the Most Merciful" thing.

    Truly, the ditto-heads are, despite Limbaugh's denial....mind-numbed robots!

    heheh

    Posted by Maskdelta at 10/22/2008 @ 09:17am

24. It seems to be Palin supporters doing the messiah thing far more than Obama supporters, who are critical of him.

    Posted by i'm nobody at 10/22/2008 @ 10:30am

25. Posted by i'm nobody at 10/22/2008 @ 10:30am

    Well, of course.

    Listen to them (especially in the early days of the GOP Convention, right after she was picked)...

    Saint Sarah, patron saint of 'real' conservatism, was going to "pull McCain back to the Right as Veep" or (in Darin's dream) TAKE OVER upon McCain's untimely demise.

    SHE's the "Messiah" figure.

    Posted by Maskdelta at 10/22/2008 @ 11:20am

26. If McCain can drive margins in western and central Pennsylvania like Hillary did in the primary, win the northeast part of the state, hold down losses in the Philly suburbs and, with the help of ethnic white wards, hold down margins in the city of Philly, he could be competitive.

    Hillary? wasn't she a Democrat? McCain's gonna get her votes? on what planet?

    Posted by emile duBois at 10/22/2008 @ 11:41am

27. Mask-All one has to do is venture onto right wing sites and look at her rallies to see that she is the messiah figure.

    Posted by i'm nobody at 10/22/2008 @ 12:49pm